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Market Research Report

Electric Vehicles 2020-2030: Markets, technology, manufacturers, opportunities. Land, water, air: unique detail

Published by IDTechEx Ltd. Product code 836181
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Electric Vehicles 2020-2030: Markets, technology, manufacturers, opportunities. Land, water, air: unique detail
Published: May 10, 2019 Content info: 243 Slides
Description

"Electric Vehicles 2020-2030" has over 240 pages of detailed distilled information largely as new infographics, forecast area graphs and technology event timelines. The Executive Summary and Conclusions is comprehensive yet easily absorbed by those in a hurry. Briefly learn the definitions, types of hybrid and pure electric powertrain and where they are headed overall - not just for cars. In one infographic, four important applicational sectors are divided into 13 EV types serving them and the characteristics are compared.

Who is winning in the EV marketplace and why are others finding it so hard to catch up? What performance features closely correlate with commercial success? An image compares the good and bad EV strategies of 21 manufacturers against 13 proven drivers of business success. See scope for mergers between 29 players against their nine EV product categories. Understand ten key enabling technologies for future EVs and how they will evolve over the years, with many new images. See how each will serve listed primary needs such as elimination of poisons over coming years. 2020-2030 forecasts give number, unit value and market value for all the main categories divided into their many sub-sectors. The full 100 category forecasts in Excel are included so you can run your own scenarios.

Chapter 2 Introduction looks much more closely into the types of powertrain and future changes in EV construction with integration, simplification then amazing new multi-functionality, autonomy, energy independence. See the China national plan for improvement in battery performance and how the Chinese acquisitions and rollouts across the world are mostly very shrewd and far more comprehensive than commonly realised. See many examples of formidable innovation in China and elsewhere. All 100 forecasting categories are tabled with characteristics, forecasting assumptions and market leaders.

Chapters 3 through 7 cover Aircraft, Buses, Cars, CAM and Trucks with detailed new infographics picturing everything from the electrified farm of the future to how major challenges of crewed aircraft will be addressed with new principles of electrically powered flight. Grasp cost trends and dates for internal combustion engine ICE parity 2020-2050 from graphs. New EVs such as sky taxis, robot shuttles and trackless road trams are assessed. One detailed infographic gives the timing and legal drivers of peak car and what results 2020-2050. Learn when the vast number of 48V mild hybrids will have pure electric modes and put a big squeeze on conventional hybrids and ICE cars.

Chapter 8 comprehensively looks at the technology and future of batteries, supercapacitors, motors, power electronics and energy harvesting in EVs land, water and air and the gaps in the market, including the huge importance of energy independent electric vehicles in later years all with a host of pictured examples with annotations and explanation. What energy storage improvements enable what new markets to 2030? Only IDTechEx has this experience, insight and detail.

Why now? From materials, component and vehicle suppliers to operators and others, there was unsatisfied demand for detailed appraisal and forecasts because so much is missed. No longer. The IDTechEx report "Electric Vehicles 2020-2030" is based on analysis of no less than 100 sectors, forecasting each to 2030 with a look at progress to 2050 in timelines constructed for markets and technology. IDTechEx has studied and forecasted EVs for over 20 years. It has over 15 PhD level analysts deployed globally, mostly multi-lingual.

The electric vehicle EV market (hybrid and pure electric) is twice the size of the electric car market and proliferating. Electric buses and trucks taken together will become a bigger market than cars. The new facts-based analysis by IDTechEx reveals a serious mismatch between typical reporting and what is really going on.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Basics and primary conclusions
  • 1.2. EV powertrains and technology
  • 1.3. What correlates with success of certain pure electric cars?
    • 1.3.1. Range still strongly affects success of pure electric cars
    • 1.3.2. Rigged markets boost sales
  • 1.4. Major EV applicational categories compared
  • 1.5. Largest EV manufacturers hybrid and pure electric and their future
    • 1.5.1. EV manufacturers league table 2018 $ billion EV sales: next battleground buses and trucks - China ready
    • 1.5.2. Good and bad EV strategy and execution: future EV winners from 21 auto companies on 13 proven criteria
    • 1.5.3. Diversification and merger potential
    • 1.5.4. Diversification and merger potential of 28 EV manufacturers
    • 1.5.5. Tesla leadership and our estimate of timeline to 2035
    • 1.5.6. Provided it does not run out of cash, Tesla strategy correct - Boston matrix
    • 1.5.7. Tesla timeline 2020-2035 estimated by IDTechEx
    • 1.5.8. Trying to catch Tesla
  • 1.6. Ambitious new EV objectives drive radically new EV technologies
    • 1.6.1. Overview
    • 1.6.2. Multi-purposing transforms economics, saves lives, enriches experiences
    • 1.6.3. Robotics
    • 1.6.4. Mobility as a Service MaaS
    • 1.6.5. Charging with vehicle moving and energy independence
  • 1.7. Ten EV key enabling technologies for 2020-2030
    • 1.7.1. Overview
    • 1.7.2. Structural electronics
    • 1.7.3. Electric motor-generators
    • 1.7.4. Traction battery systems including and battery charging and swapping
    • 1.7.5. Energy harvesting and regeneration
    • 1.7.6. Supercapacitors
    • 1.7.7. Fuel cells 1.7.10 Thermal management
    • 1.7.8. Power electronics
    • 1.7.9. Low power electronics, sensors and sensor fusion
    • 1.7.10. Thermal management
    • 1.7.11. Software, connectivity, artificial intelligence
    • 1.7.12. How ten key enabling technologies will improve to serve primary needs
  • 1.8. Total markets by technology
    • 1.8.1. Hybrid vs PEV - number thousand
    • 1.8.2. Hybrid vs PEV - market value $ billion
  • 1.9. Markets by applicational type
    • 1.9.1. Applicational sectors - number thousand
    • 1.9.2. Applicational sectors - market value $ billion
    • 1.9.3. Buses - number thousand
    • 1.9.4. Buses - market value $ billion
    • 1.9.5. Trucks - number thousand
    • 1.9.6. Trucks - market value $ billion
    • 1.9.7. Cars - number thousand
    • 1.9.8. Cars - $ billion
    • 1.9.9. Two-wheeler and car-like - number thousand
    • 1.9.10. Two-wheeler and car-like - market value $ billion
    • 1.9.11. Aircraft - number thousand
    • 1.9.12. Aircraft - market value $ billion
    • 1.9.13. Marine - number thousand
    • 1.9.14. Marine - $ billion
  • 1.10. Markets by geographical region
    • 1.10.1. Cars
    • 1.10.2. Buses geographical split - numbers thousand
    • 1.10.3. School buses geographical split - numbers thousand

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. What is an electric vehicle?
  • 2.2. EV complexity roadmap
    • 2.2.1. Radical simplification
    • 2.2.2. Aircraft example
    • 2.2.3. Motorcycles, boats, cars simplify: many benefits result
    • 2.2.4. How it is done: electrification, wireless and structural electronics
    • 2.2.5. Fabulous new functions can then be added: energy independent boat, multifunctional robot shuttle
  • 2.3. Electric vehicles in the largest market: China
    • 2.3.1. Overview
    • 2.3.2. Buying brands, routes to market, innovation: example Geely
    • 2.3.3. Pure electric vehicle adoption: small vehicles cost effective first
    • 2.3.4. Trucks and buses
    • 2.3.5. More Chinese companies will enter the EV top fifteen: CRRC
    • 2.3.6. Innovation examples: solar drones, solar cars, solar roads
    • 2.3.7. Some primary conclusions
  • 2.4. 100 EV categories: forecasting assumptions, characteristics, leaders
    • 2.4.1. Construction, agriculture, mining part 1
    • 2.4.2. Construction, agriculture, mining part 2
    • 2.4.3. Intralogistics
    • 2.4.4. Other off-road
    • 2.4.5. Bus
    • 2.4.6. Truck
    • 2.4.7. Car
    • 2.4.8. Car-like and allied
    • 2.4.9. Military land
    • 2.4.10. Two wheel
    • 2.4.11. Drone
    • 2.4.12. Crewed aircraft
    • 2.4.13. Train
    • 2.4.14. Marine
    • 2.4.15. Small robot and other

3. AIRCRAFT

  • 3.1. Summary
  • 3.2. Why go electric for crewed electric aircraft?
  • 3.3. Additional advantages of electric propulsion
  • 3.4. Major challenges associated with crewed electric aircraft
  • 3.5. Transition to electric aircraft: MEA, hybrid, pure electric
  • 3.6. Categorisation of manned electric aircraft
  • 3.7. Current short and medium-range addressable market
  • 3.8. Current long-range addressable market
  • 3.9. New addressable markets: VTOL, sky taxis etc.
  • 3.10. Forecasts from major players 2020-2050
  • 3.11. List of some key players and models by categorisation
  • 3.12. Adoption timeline for crewed electric aircraft 2020-2050
  • 3.13. Regulatory barriers and legislative drivers
  • 3.14. Analysis of electric motor types in ten electric aircraft
  • 3.15. Projects - Geographical Distribution
  • 3.16. Drones
  • 3.16.1. Widening uses and types
  • 3.16.2. Large expenditure on high altitude drones

4. BUSES

  • 4.1. Summary
  • 4.2. Why adopt buses?
  • 4.3. Types of bus currently on sale
  • 4.4. Buses population worldwide by types 2025
  • 4.5. New types of electric bus: autonomous, not competing with conventional buses
  • 4.6. Drivers and timing of bus electrification
  • 4.7. Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
  • 4.8. Electric bus leadership: focus on pure electric now
  • 4.9. China buses go global: cost advantages
  • 4.10. How China cost advantage facilitates market share
  • 4.11. Electric bus key market events 2020-2040
    • 4.11.1. Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
    • 4.11.2. Pure electric bus delivery completion dates examples 2020-2040
    • 4.11.3. Predicting the electric bus killer blow of lower up-front price by type 2020-2040

5. CARS

  • 5.1. Summary
  • 5.2. 5Cars under threat
    • 5.2.1. Overview
    • 5.2.2. Peak in car sales then peak electric car sales k globally 2014-2050
  • 5.3. Wrong vehicle and powertrain strategy can now destroy companies
  • 5.4. Powertrain evolution
  • 5.5. Pure electric cars
    • 5.5.1. Overview
    • 5.5.2. World's cheapest electric car
  • 5.6. 48V mild hybrid cars
    • 5.6.1. Overview
    • 5.6.2. 48V MH technology in 2030

6. CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE AND MINING

  • 6.1. Summary
  • 6.2. Market drivers
  • 6.3. Construction site of the future: electric vehicles/ robots charged by movable zero gensets
  • 6.4. Farm of the future: robots and drones charge from on-board solar and mobile "zero gensets"
  • 6.5. Mine of the future: electric land and air vehicles charging from zero emission mine microgrids
  • 6.6. Progress towards the end game: all electric CAM vehicles
  • 6.7. CAM electric vehicle value market share $bn in 2019 and EV CAM $bn 2029
  • 6.8. Major suppliers' coverage across CAM electric vehicles
  • 6.9. Supplier appraisal Caterpillar
  • 6.10. Supplier appraisal Komatsu
  • 6.11. Revenues of top agricultural equipment companies
  • 6.12. CAM EV market outlook: examples hybrid vs pure electric

7. TRUCKS

  • 7.1. Summary
  • 7.2. Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles
  • 7.3. Specialty vehicles
  • 7.4. More carrot, more stick
  • 7.5. Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics
  • 7.6. Benefits from truck and van electrification
  • 7.7. Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck?
  • 7.8. Need for a systems approach
  • 7.9. Limited 48V opportunity with delivery trucks / vans

8. TECHNOLOGIES

  • 8.1. Batteries
    • 8.1.1. Rapid change
    • 8.1.2. What does an EV battery pack look like?
    • 8.1.3. Li-ion battery adoption by type of EV
    • 8.1.4. Future types of battery for EVs
    • 8.1.5. Lithium-ion battery design
    • 8.1.6. Changing too fast
    • 8.1.7. Active electrode options
    • 8.1.8. Alternative battery technologies for future EVs
    • 8.1.9. Progress to less and no battery
  • 8.2. Supercapacitors
    • 8.2.1. Definitions
    • 8.2.2. Supercapacitors and their derivatives: gaps in the market
    • 8.2.3. Even better batteries and supercapacitors a real prospect: future W/kg vs Wh/kg
    • 8.2.4. Supercapacitors in the automotive sector: examples
    • 8.2.5. Powertrain penetration by supercapacitors
    • 8.2.6. Supercapacitors in the on-road automotive sector 2010-2030
    • 8.2.7. Performance enhancement and multi-purposing
    • 8.2.8. Supercapacitor buses
    • 8.2.9. Structural supercapacitors ZapGo, Lamborghini Terzo Millennio and others
  • 8.3. Motors
    • 8.3.1. Overview
    • 8.3.2. Market dynamics 2020-2030
    • 8.3.3. Traction machine types used to propel electric vehicles land, water, air
    • 8.3.4. Examples of traction machine technologies by operating principle
    • 8.3.5. Traction motor opportunities off road, often more profitable, by power kW
    • 8.3.6. Timeline electric aircraft thrust 2020-2030: where the most radical advances occur
    • 8.3.7. Traction machine-with-controller value market: new vehicles 2030 % by vehicle application
    • 8.3.8. Where the profit will lie: traction machine value gross margin 2030 % by sector
    • 8.3.9. Ten traction machine trends 2020-30
    • 8.3.10. Permanent magnets more popular but eventually unnecessary?
  • 8.4. Power electronics
    • 8.4.1. Taking more percentage of vehicle cost
    • 8.4.2. Voltage increase
    • 8.4.3. More and more power electronics: complexity, proliferation, added types
  • 8.5. Energy harvesting
    • 8.5.1. Overview
    • 8.5.2. EH transducer principles and materials
    • 8.5.3. EH technologies by actual and potential usefulness
    • 8.5.4. Challenges of EH technologies
    • 8.5.5. Harvesting for on-road vehicles
    • 8.5.6. Harvesting for marine vehicles
    • 8.5.7. Harvesting for air vehicles
    • 8.5.8. Integrated multi-mode energy harvesting
    • 8.5.9. EV end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
    • 8.5.10. Energy independent restaurant van and boats
    • 8.5.11. Energy independent ship opportunity
    • 8.5.12. Solar Ship EIEV inflatable fixed wing aircraft, sun alone
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