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Market Research Report

Li-ion Batteries 2020-2030

Published by IDTechEx Ltd. Product code 930806
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Li-ion Batteries 2020-2030
Published: March 27, 2020 Content info: 323 Slides
Description

"Li-ion battery market is growing rapidly with increasing levels of investment across the value chain."

Li-ion batteries (LIB) are a part of everyday life. First commercialised by Sony in 1990, they are now ubiquitous in consumer electronics. Demand has been driven by these markets for the past few decades but this has now changed. The pressing issues of climate change, air quality and energy security have accelerated research into energy storage, for both electricity grids and electric vehicles (EVs).

While the fundamental components of the LIB have remained similar, continuous development and diversification of the technology means we have seen significant performance gains in Li-ion performance, though not as fast as is perhaps necessary or desired. Performance improvements are still required to improve range, cost and recharge time of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and various avenues are being pursued.

The report provides an analysis of the major technological developments being developed by manufacturers, for example, the routes being taken to stabilise silicon anodes and high-nickel cathodes. Silicon anodes have seen considerable interest over the past few years. Start-ups developing silicon dominant anodes have received hundreds of millions of dollars in funding since 2010, with the amount invested jumping 340% from 2018 to 2019.

While silicon has gained plenty of attention, graphite is still the dominant anode of today's Li-ion batteries, while lithium titanate (LTO) has numerous technological advantages. On the cathode side, much has been made of NMC 811 (nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide 811) and other high nickel cathodes. But commercialisation of this class of material has been slow and various other cathode materials exist. A comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of graphite (synthetic and natural), silicon, LTO, NMC, NCA, LFP, LMO and LCO is provided along with the potential markets for these materials. This analysis feeds into IDTechEx's technology outlooks and forecasts, evaluating the evolving shares that different LIB chemistries and technologies will hold from 2020 to 2030. The report also provides analysis and commentary on the active material choices and strategies of various cell manufacturers.

The continuous improvements being made to Li-ion technology will make it increasingly difficult for alternative battery chemistries to gain market share, and highlights the importance of understanding the trends and developments being observed in Li-ion batteries, from cell materials (active and inactive) through to manufacturing innovations.

With a fast growing market comes increasing levels of investment and partnership. Comparing the level of production capacity announced for Europe from 2018 to 2020 provides a stark example. Despite the rush to build Li-ion capacity in Europe, >50% of cell production is both located in China and controlled by Chinese companies, highlighting the important role the country plays. The report compares production capability of various cell, cathode and anode manufacturers as well as examples of investment seen elsewhere. Despite this increased activity, various reports of battery shortages were announced by automotive OEMs in 2019 - IDTechEx provide commentary and analysis on the bottlenecks that may hinder the Li-ion market.

Forecasts are provided for the period 2020-2030 and are categorised by GWh, $bn, application, cathode type and anode type. Price forecasts are also provided coupled with a bottom-up analysis of cell costs and the impact material price volatility can have.

The report provides an in-depth and holistic view of the Li-ion technology and market and includes sections on:

  • Raw materials
  • Anodes
  • Cathodes
  • Inactive components
  • Cell types
  • Technology developments
  • Manufacturing
  • Recycling
  • Battery prices
  • Demand forecasts
  • Players across the supply chain

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Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. Trends in the Li-ion market
  • 1.2. Trends in the Li-ion market - China
  • 1.3. Key technology developments 1
  • 1.4. Comparing cathodes - a high-level overview
  • 1.5. Cathode suitability
  • 1.6. How different will Li-ion materials be?
  • 1.7. Raw material price volatility
  • 1.8. How high can energy density go?
  • 1.9. Technology roadmap
  • 1.10. European gigafactories announced by 2018
  • 1.11. European gigafactories announced to date
  • 1.12. How much to build one GWh of capacity?
  • 1.13. Demand for Li-ion shifting
  • 1.14. Drivers for electric vehicles - China
  • 1.15. European investment in the supply chain
  • 1.16. Potential for battery shortages
  • 1.17. Potential for raw material shortage
  • 1.18. Supply and demand overview
  • 1.19. Forecast Li-ion battery demand, GWh
  • 1.20. LIB cell price forecast

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Importance of energy storage
  • 2.2. Electric vehicles needed
  • 2.3. What is a Li-ion battery?
  • 2.4. Electrochemistry definitions 1
  • 2.5. Useful charts for performance comparison
  • 2.6. Why lithium?
  • 2.7. Primary lithium batteries
  • 2.8. Ragone plots
  • 2.9. More than one type of Li-ion battery
  • 2.10. Commercial anodes - graphite
  • 2.11. The battery trilemma
  • 2.12. Battery wish list

3. RAW MATERIALS

  • 3.1. The Li-ion supply chain
  • 3.2. The elements used in Li-ion batteries
  • 3.3. Mining supply chain model
  • 3.4. EU critical raw materials
  • 3.5. Weight content of a Li-ion cell
  • 3.6. Raw material supply
  • 3.7. Where is lithium located?
  • 3.8. Cobalt in the DRC
  • 3.9. Geographic breakdown of nickel mining
  • 3.10. Natural graphite mining

4. ELECTRODE MATERIALS

  • 4.1. Cathode
  • 4.2. Cathode recap
  • 4.3. Cathode history
  • 4.4. Cathode materials - LCO and LFP
  • 4.5. Cathode materials - NMC, NCA and LMO
  • 4.6. Cathode performance comparison
  • 4.7. Understanding cathodes
  • 4.8. Why high nickel?
  • 4.9. Why LCO for consumer devices?
  • 4.10. Geographical breakdown of cathode production
  • 4.11. Cathode player manufacturing
  • 4.12. Major cathode players
  • 4.13. Chemistry production spread
  • 4.14. Cathode supply relationships
  • 4.15. Cathode powder synthesis (NMC)
  • 4.16. Cathode development
  • 4.17. Complexity of cathode chemistry
  • 4.18. NMC development - from 111 to 811
  • 4.19. Cathode materials - NCA
  • 4.20. Stabilising high-nickel NMC
  • 4.21. Will it all be NMC 811?
  • 4.22. CamX Power cathode technology
  • 4.23. Protective coatings
  • 4.24. Protective coatings - companies
  • 4.25. LFP for Tesla Model 3?
  • 4.26. LFP vs NMC
  • 4.27. LMFP cathodes
  • 4.28. LMFP commercialisation
  • 4.29. Future cathode possibilities
  • 4.30. High manganese cathodes
  • 4.31. GM to use NCMA
  • 4.32. High voltage cathode
  • 4.33. High voltage cathodes - NanoOne
  • 4.34. Beyond metal percentages
  • 4.35. Cathode price analysis
  • 4.36. Future NMC/NCM - Umicore
  • 4.37. Patent litigation over NMC/NCM - Umicore vs. BASF
  • 4.38. Patent litigation over NMC/NCM - Umicore vs. BASF
  • 4.39. Patent litigation - the positive example of LFP
  • 4.40. LCO overview
  • 4.41. LMO overview
  • 4.42. LFP overview
  • 4.43. Low-nickel NMC overview
  • 4.44. High-nickel NMC overview
  • 4.45. NCA overview
  • 4.46. Cathode suitability
  • 4.47. Cathode outlook - which chemistries will be used?
  • 4.48. Cathode outlook
  • 4.49. Cathode outlook - annotated
  • 4.50. Li-ion market by cathode material
  • 4.51. Anode
  • 4.52. Anode materials
  • 4.53. Introduction to graphite
  • 4.54. Natural or synthetic in LIB?
  • 4.55. Coated spherical purified graphite (CSPG)
  • 4.56. Natural graphite for LIBs
  • 4.57. Synthetic graphite production
  • 4.58. Suppliers of active graphite material
  • 4.59. Suppliers of active graphite material
  • 4.60. Hard carbon as additive for LIBs - Kuraray
  • 4.61. The promise of silicon
  • 4.62. The reality of silicon
  • 4.63. How much can silicon improve energy density?
  • 4.64. Commercial technology directions
  • 4.65. Established company interest in silicon
  • 4.66. Silicon anode material - Wacker Chemie
  • 4.67. Solutions for silicon incorporation
  • 4.68. Key silicon patents overview
  • 4.69. Money in silicon
  • 4.70. Continuous money in silicon
  • 4.71. Silicon anodes - mergers, acquisitions, investments
  • 4.72. Opportunities to enable silicon
  • 4.73. When will we see silicon dominant (anode) cells?
  • 4.74. Outlook on anodes
  • 4.75. Silicon dominant anodes ready for commercialisation?
  • 4.76. Introduction to lithium titanate oxide (LTO)
  • 4.77. Comparing LTO and graphite
  • 4.78. Commercial LTO comparisons
  • 4.79. Where will LTO play a role?
  • 4.80. Increased demand for LTO
  • 4.81. LTO for e-buses
  • 4.82. LTO for heavy-duty and hybrids
  • 4.83. Lithium metal
  • 4.84. Issues for lithium metal
  • 4.85. Anodes compared
  • 4.86. Li-ion demand by anode, GWh

5. ELECTROLYTE AND SEPARATORS

  • 5.1. Inactive materials negatively affect energy density
  • 5.2. What is in a cell?
  • 5.3. Introduction to Li-ion electrolytes
  • 5.4. Electrolyte decomposition
  • 5.5. Electrolyte additives
  • 5.6. Developments at Dalhousie University
  • 5.7. Electrolyte manufacturers
  • 5.8. Electrolyte suppliers
  • 5.9. Introduction to Separators
  • 5.10. Polyolefin separator
  • 5.11. Separator manufacturing
  • 5.12. Separator market overview
  • 5.13. Separator capacity announcements
  • 5.14. Major separator manufacturers
  • 5.15. Soteria's separators
  • 5.16. Solid-state battery value chain
  • 5.17. Solid-state electrolytes
  • 5.18. Solid-state electrolyte technology approach
  • 5.19. Supply issues for lithium metal
  • 5.20. Manufacturability of solid-state batteries
  • 5.21. Solid state battery news and trends

6. CURRENT COLLECTORS

  • 6.1. Aluminium and copper
  • 6.2. Current collectors
  • 6.3. Porous current collectors - Nano-Nouvelle
  • 6.4. Mesh current collectors
  • 6.5. Perforated foils
  • 6.6. Plastic current collectors
  • 6.7. Soteria business model and value proposition

7. BINDERS AND CONDUCTIVE ADDITIVES

  • 7.1. Binders
  • 7.2. Binders - aqueous vs non-aqueous
  • 7.3. Arkema
  • 7.4. Conductive agents
  • 7.5. Carbon nanotube use
  • 7.6. Conductive frameworks - Nanoramic
  • 7.7. Carbon nanotubes - OCSiAl

8. BATTERY MANAGEMENT

  • 8.1. Introduction to battery management systems
  • 8.2. Fast charging and degradation
  • 8.3. Importance of fast charging
  • 8.4. Operational limits of LIBs
  • 8.5. BMS - STAFL systems
  • 8.6. Pulse charging
  • 8.7. Cell balancing
  • 8.8. Consequences of cell imbalance
  • 8.9. Active or passive balancing?
  • 8.10. State-of-charge estimation
  • 8.11. State-of-health and remaining-useful-life estimation
  • 8.12. Value of BMS

9. CELL DESIGN

  • 9.1. Commercial battery packaging technologies
  • 9.2. Automotive format choices
  • 9.3. Cell formats
  • 9.4. Comparison of commercial cell formats
  • 9.5. Which cell format to choose?
  • 9.6. Bipolar batteries
  • 9.7. Bipolar technology for Li-ion
  • 9.8. New pack designs

10. OVERVIEW OF LI-ION TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK

  • 10.1. Active material developments
  • 10.2. Li-ion chemistry evolution
  • 10.3. Multiple sources of improvements
  • 10.4. Multiple sources of improvement
  • 10.5. Energy density assessment
  • 10.6. How high can energy density go?
  • 10.7. Technology roadmap

11. BATTERY PRODUCTION AND MANUFACTURING

  • 11.1. Cell production steps
  • 11.2. Batteries for EVs - not just electrochemistry
  • 11.3. The need for a dry room
  • 11.4. Electrode slurry mixing
  • 11.5. Cell production
  • 11.6. Areas for improvement in cell production
  • 11.7. Innovation in manufacturing
  • 11.8. Maxwell acquisition
  • 11.9. Dry electrode manufacturing process
  • 11.10. Benefits of dry electrode manufacturing
  • 11.11. Formation cycling
  • 11.12. China dominating?
  • 11.13. EV battery production in China
  • 11.14. Europe set for growth
  • 11.15. European gigafactories announced by 2018
  • 11.16. European gigafactories announced to date
  • 11.17. Gigafactory investment in Europe
  • 11.18. Power demand of LIB production
  • 11.19. The cost of Li-ion production in Poland
  • 11.20. Gigafactory building
  • 11.21. How long to build a Gigafactory?
  • 11.22. How much to build one GWh of capacity?
  • 11.23. Main players
  • 11.24. Potential for battery shortages?
  • 11.25. Potential for battery shortages explained
  • 11.26. Supply and demand overview

12. APPLICATIONS

  • 12.1. Power range for electronic and electrical devices
  • 12.2. Demand for Li-ion shifting
  • 12.3. National EV policies
  • 12.4. Electric Vehicles - passenger cars
  • 12.5. Heavy duty vehicles
  • 12.6. Consumer devices
  • 12.7. Smartphones
  • 12.8. Power tools and appliances
  • 12.9. Stationary storage markets
  • 12.10. Technologies for stationary
  • 12.11. Stationary energy storage
  • 12.12. Aircraft electrification

13. THE LI-ION LIFE-CYCLE

  • 13.1. Battery second use connects the electric vehicle and battery recycling value chains
  • 13.2. Battery second use or recycling?
  • 13.3. Retired EV battery capacity in the next decade
  • 13.4. Is there enough global resource?
  • 13.5. Drivers for recycling Li-ion batteries
  • 13.6. Overview of LIB recycling
  • 13.7. Recycling pre-treatments and processing - mechanical
  • 13.8. Recycling pre-treatments and processing - chemical and thermal
  • 13.9. Pyrometallurgical recycling
  • 13.10. Hydrometallurgical recycling
  • 13.11. Recycling example via hydrometallurgy
  • 13.12. Recycling methods map
  • 13.13. Flow diagrams of commercial LIB recycling
  • 13.14. Pyro- and hydro-metallurgy reviewed
  • 13.15. Global involvement in LIB recycling
  • 13.16. LIB recycling players

14. TECHNOLOGY BENCHMARKING

  • 14.1. Li-ion cathode comparison
  • 14.2. Li-ion anode comparison
  • 14.3. Electrochemical storage comparisons
  • 14.4. Li-ion technology challenges

15. LI-ION IN THE NEWS

  • 15.1. Interesting academic publications
  • 15.2. Samsung's Firegate
  • 15.3. Fire and regulation
  • 15.4. Li-ion in the news

16. COST ANALYSES AND FORECAST

  • 16.1. The price of Li-ion cells
  • 16.2. Battery price reduction
  • 16.3. LIB price forecast methodology
  • 16.4. Bottom-up cell cost analysis
  • 16.5. Cost breakdown
  • 16.6. Bottom-up cell cost scenario
  • 16.7. Cumulative installed LIB forecast
  • 16.8. LIB cell price forecast
  • 16.9. Price forecast assumptions
  • 16.10. Li-ion to be commoditised?
  • 16.11. Raw material price volatility
  • 16.12. Raw material price volatility - effect at cell level
  • 16.13. Historic cobalt prices
  • 16.14. High-nickel NMC cell cost estimate

17. FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS

  • 17.1. Demand vs supply
  • 17.2. Forecast Li-ion battery demand, GWh
  • 17.3. Forecast Li-ion cell market, $ billion
  • 17.4. Electric vehicles - excluding BEVs
  • 17.5. Forecasting consumer electronics
  • 17.6. Forecasting power tools and appliances
  • 17.7. Electronic device batteries, GWh
  • 17.8. Electronic device batteries, million units
  • 17.9. Electronic device batteries, $ billion
  • 17.10. Smartphone demand
  • 17.11. Cathode outlook - annotated
  • 17.12. Li-ion market by cathode material
  • 17.13. Li-ion demand by cathode, GWh
  • 17.14. Li-ion demand by anode, GWh

18. MARKET PLAYERS

  • 18.1. Cell
  • 18.2. Cathode
  • 18.3. Suppliers of active graphite material
  • 18.4. Electrolyte
  • 18.5. Separator
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