Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2020-2030

Title:
Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2020-2030
Detailed regional production, market, battery requirement and market value forecasts for electric light commercial vehicles, 2020-2030. Background to the developing electric van markets in Europe, China and the US: players and drivers for electrification.

Global production of electric light commercial vehicles to exceed 2.4 million units annually by 2030.

Astute businesses are recognising that electrifying their light commercial vehicle fleets is not only a successful mechanism by which they can demonstrate their green credentials to their customers, but is also, increasingly, the prudent economic decision.

Whilst there are differing motivations for commercial vehicle electrification in each of the key geographical markets, there are strong drivers in each which are pushing them towards the rapid adoption of electric motors in place of conventional internal combustion engines.

The new IDTechEx forecast report "Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2020-2030" provides a detailed ten-year outlook for the uptake of electric light commercial vehicles across key regions; China, Europe, North America and the rest of the world. The report contains over 50 market forecast slides, outlining eLCV production, penetration, market revenue and battery requirement. This report will be of great value to companies across the automotive industry including OEMs, battery manufactures, electric drivetrain parts and systems suppliers, materials and research organisations, charging infrastructure developers, government agencies and companies with significant LCV fleets.

IDTechEx Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2020-2030 forecast segmentation:

• By geography; North America, China, Europe (EU + EFTA) and ROW as well as an aggregate global forecast.

• 10-year outlook; production, market penetration, market revenue, battery capacity requirement and eLCV share of total LCV market.

Also included in the report:

• 2020-2030 eLCV sales forecasts for each European country with greater than 25,000 LCV units sales p.a. (i.e. Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK, Norway and Switzerland).

• 2020-2040 market penetration and sales forecasts for France, the UK and Germany, incorporating IDTechEx's 2020-2030 forecasts into a longer-term LCV electrification pathway in the three largest European markets.

Along with the forecasts, the IDTechEx Electric Light Commercial Vehicles report 2020-2030, provides a background to the addressable LCV market in each of the key regions; describes the current state of the eLCV market in each of these regions, highlighting the major players; and looks at the distinct drivers in each region that are promoting the growth of electric light commercial vehicles, including total cost of ownership considerations.

The LCV market is uniquely positioned for the rapid uptake of electric vehicles for a number of reasons, which include:

• LCV purchase decisions are commonly made on a total cost of operation (TCO) basis. The significant operational cost saving of electricity, in place of diesel, as a fuel is incorporated into the decision-making process of an LCV purchaser to a much greater degree than is the case for private customers in the electric passenger car market, where upfront cost is more often the determining factor. Where the TCO benefit of an electric vehicle can be demonstrated, it becomes a competitive advantage for operators to run electric vehicles. For smaller vans there is evidence that this is already the case, for larger vans the TCO parity is projected for the mid-2020s.

• Fleet managers have a detailed knowledge of the daily duty requirements of their vehicles. As LCV operators understand the daily mileage they require from their vehicles, range anxiety should not be an issue for the LCV market. OEMs must work with their customers, pre-sale, to understand firstly if their vehicle can meet the daily duty demand in the worst case scenario (cold, fully laden, congested traffic, etc) and further to this, to work with them to optimise the battery size and charging strategy to meet their customers' need, with the effect of reducing the upfront cost of the vehicle and minimising the weight of the installed battery.

• Along with the concerns common to all combustion driven vehicles around fuel efficiency / CO2 emission and the impact of this on the global climate, a further driver for eLCV is the effect of exhaust emissions on local air quality. LCVs are often employed in urban environments as a key element in the logistics chain. There is growing evidence of the detrimental impact that exhaust pollutant emissions, especially NOx and PM, have on local air quality and public health. As a direct result, many large cities are in the process of introducing mechanisms to limit the access of polluting vehicles to city centres. Combustion engine driven vehicles will increasingly have to pay to access low emission zones within cities, vastly increasing their operating costs. Urbanisation and the continued growth of e-commerce is set to increase demand for the delivery of goods, but the tariff on exhaust emissions in congested urban areas will make eLCV the cheapest way to meet the demand.

The total cost of ownership is important to LCV purchasers and will be a driving force for uptake, however in the short term IDTechEx expect there to be a period of progressively larger pilot projects, conducted by commercial fleet operators to establish that eLCVs meet the businesses operational requirements. This period of validation will be necessary for fleet operators to determine that the vehicle range, load volume capacity, payload weight and reliability in real-world operation are sufficient to replace the existing diesel fleet. Once this has been shown, the widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCV will begin.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 1.1. An imminent boom in eLCV sales
• 1.2. Light commercial vehicle classification
• 1.3. Continued growth in road freight demand
• 1.4. Electric small vans TCO advantage over diesel
• 1.5. eLCV regional summary
• 1.6. Key global forecast takeaways
• 1.7. Key Regional Forecast takeaways:
• 1.8. LCV global production (000s units)
• 1.9. eLCV global production by region (000s units)
• 1.10. eLCV battery requirement forecast by region (GWh)
• 1.11. eLCV market forecast by region ($US Bn)

2. INTRODUCTION

• 2.1. Climate change
• 2.2. Global CO2 emission from transport
• 2.3. CO2 emissions from the LCV sector
• 2.4. Urban air quality
• 2.5. Road transport the main source of urban NOx
• 2.6. Global efforts to limit urban road transport emissions
• 2.7. National diesel and petrol vehicle bans
• 2.8. The worldwide freight transport industry
• 2.9. Projected increase in global road freight activity
• 2.10. The rise of e-commerce: increased freight demand
• 2.11. Fuel / emissions regulation for new LCVs
• 2.12. GHG emission from light commercial vehicles
• 2.13. Europe legislating CO2 emission from LCV
• 2.14. The developing electric light commercial vehicle market
• 2.15. The developing electric light commercial vehicle market
• 2.16. Considerations for eLCV adoption
• 2.17. Do electric LCVs offer sufficient range?
• 2.18. An imminent boom in eLCV sales
• 2.19. New eLCV sales (BEV & PHEV), 2005-18 (000s)
• 2.20. eLCV stock (BEV & PHEV), by country, 2005-18 (000s)

3. LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION

• 3.1. Light commercial vehicle classification
• 3.2. Different segments of goods transportation by land
• 3.3. Types of popular on-road truck
• 3.4. LCV fleet description by region

4. TCO CONSIDERATIONS FOR ELCV

• 4.1. Environmental goodwill insufficient for uptake of eLCV
• 4.2. TCO considerations for eLCV
• 4.3. Overcoming barriers for low emission technologies
• 4.4. Example: TCO for eLCV (Renault Kangoo)
• 4.5. Example: TCO for eLCV (Nissan e-NV200)
• 4.6. Timeline for TCO parity between diesel and eLCV
• 4.7. When will cost parity be reached?
• 4.8. Electric and diesel LCV cost parity

5. ELECTRIC LCVS IN EUROPE

• 5.1. Europe: LCV sales 2018
• 5.2. European market for LCVs
• 5.3. European in-use LCV fleet and new registrations
• 5.4. New registrations in Europe's six largest LCV fleets
• 5.5. 2018 European Electric LCV Sales
• 5.6. Popular e-LCVs in Europe
• 5.7. Popular e-LCVs in Europe: StreetScooter
• 5.8. Popular e-LCVs in Europe: compact utility vehicles
• 5.9. Future e-LCVs in Europe
• 5.10. Specifications of eLCVs available in Europe
• 5.11. Arrival: Investment from Hyundai Motor Group
• 5.12. Market outlook: national and local policy
• 5.13. Market Outlook: Example Sweden Forecast

6. ELECTRIC LCVS IN CHINA

• 6.1. China: Commercial Vehicle Sales 2018
• 6.2. Chinese Market for Light Commercial Vehicles
• 6.3. China: Electric Special-Purpose Vehicle Sales
• 6.4. Popular Electric Micro-Vans in China
• 6.5. Popular Electric Vans in China
• 6.6. China: Main Battery Suppliers to Chinese Electric LCVs
• 6.7. China: Main Motor Suppliers to Chinese Electric LCVs
• 6.8. Drivers for the electrification of LCVs in China
• 6.9. Drivers for Electrification of LCV Market in China
• 6.10. Market Outlook: China electric LCVs

7. ELECTRIC LCVS IN THE US

• 7.1. US: Commercial Van Sales 2018
• 7.2. US Market for Vans
• 7.3. Popular Electric Vans in the US
• 7.4. Rivian / Amazon electric delivery van
• 7.5. Business to drive electrification of LCV fleet in US?

8. ELECTRIC LCVS IN THE ROW

• 8.1. Toyota PROACE
• 8.2. Yamato / DHL StreetScooter
• 8.3. Mitsubishi MiniCab MiEV Van
• 8.4. Hyundai-Kia
• 8.5. Tata Motors Ace
• 8.6. Mahindra eSupro Cargo Van
• 8.7. Maruti Suzuki India Eeco Charge Concept
• 8.8. Ashok Leyland - Too early to move LCV range electric
• 8.9. Croyance Electro 1.T and Electro 2.T
• 8.10. SEA E4V Delivery Van

9. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

• 9.1. The key enabling technologies are changing
• 9.2. Research reports
• 9.3. Energy storage
• 9.4. Is LiB Capacity sufficient?
• 9.5. More than one type of cell design
• 9.6. Cell, module, and pack
• 9.7. Changes at cell level
• 9.8. Timeline for cell improvements
• 9.9. How do high-power ES variants compare?
• 9.10. Motor technology choices
• 9.11. Technology preference by type of vehicle
• 9.12. Limited 48V opportunity with delivery vans
• 9.13. Ford Transit Custom PHEV

10. KEY PLAYER CHANGES IN THE ELECTRIC VAN MARKET

• 10.1. Increasing eLCV sales in Europe
• 10.2. European eLCV market leaders
• 10.3. The end of the road for StreetScooter
• 10.4. Rise of the large eLCV?
• 10.5. Movers: Daimler enter the fray
• 10.6. PHEV LCVs
• 10.7. Vastly increasing eVan model choice
• 10.8. A new arrival
• 10.9. US commercial van sales 2019
• 10.10. US commercial van market 2019
• 10.11. Corporate Electric Vehicle Alliance
• 10.12. Ford: Finally an OEM offering an eVan option in the US!
• 10.13. Rivian: Three sizes of delivery van for Amazon
• 10.14. China NEV SPV production falls in 2019
• 10.15. Best selling new energy vans in China
• 10.16. Best selling new energy vans in China
• 10.17. Battery suppliers to the Chinese NEV SPV Market
• 10.18. China to support NEV SPV sales in 2nd and 3rd Tier Cities
• 10.19. BAIC EV5 with UV disinfection to counter Covid-19

11. ELCV MARKET FORECASTS 2020-2030

• 11.1. Assumptions behind the LCV forecasts
• 11.2. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in Europe 2020-2030
• 11.3. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in China 2020-2030
• 11.4. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in the North America 2020-2030
• 11.5. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in the ROW 2020-2030
• 11.6. Global Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
• 11.7. LCV global production (000s units)
• 11.8. eLCV global production (000s units)
• 11.9. eLCV global production by region (000s units)
• 11.10. Global LCV market share forecast for eLCV
• 11.11. Global eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
• 11.12. eLCV battery requirement forecast by region (GWh)
• 11.13. LCV (all fuels) market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
• 11.14. LCV (all fuels) market forecast 2020-2030 by region ($ Bn)
• 11.15. eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
• 11.16. eLCV market forecast by region ($US Bn)
• 11.17. Forecast eLCV share of total LCV market revenue
• 11.18. Europe Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
• 11.19. Europe LCV production (000s units)
• 11.20. Europe eLCV production (000s units)
• 11.21. Europe LCV market share forecast for eLCV
• 11.22. Europe eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
• 11.23. Europe eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
• 11.24. Forecast eLCV share of total Europe LCV market revenue
• 11.25. China Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
• 11.26. China LCV production (000s units)
• 11.27. China eLCV production (000s units)
• 11.28. China LCV market share forecast for eLCV
• 11.29. China eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
• 11.30. China eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
• 11.31. Forecast eLCV share of total China LCV market revenue
• 11.32. North America Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
• 11.33. North America (NA) LCV production (000s units)
• 11.34. NA eLCV production (000s units)
• 11.35. NA LCV market share forecast for eLCV
• 11.36. NA eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
• 11.37. NA eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
• 11.38. Forecast eLCV share of total NA LCV market revenue
• 11.39. ROW Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
• 11.40. ROW LCV production (000s units)
• 11.41. ROW eLCV production (000s units)
• 11.42. ROW LCV market share forecast for eLCV
• 11.43. ROW eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
• 11.44. ROW eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
• 11.45. Forecast eLCV share of total ROW LCV market revenue
• 11.46. EU+EFTA Sales Forecast: eLCV market 2020-2030, by county, for markets greater than 25,000 LCV units p.a.
• 11.47. Austria eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.48. Belgium eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.49. Denmark eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.50. France eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.51. Germany eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.52. Ireland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.53. Italy eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.54. Netherlands eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.55. Poland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.56. Portugal eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.57. Spain eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.58. Sweden eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.59. UK eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.60. Norway eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.61. Switzerland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
• 11.62. Europe Forecast: eLCV Market 2020-2040 For France, UK and Germany
• 11.63. France eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040
• 11.64. UK eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040
• 11.65. Germany eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040