Cross-Border eCommerce: Key Trends, Regional Analysis & Market Forecasts 2023-2028

Description

REPORT OVERVIEW

Juniper Research's new “Cross-border eCommerce” research report provides a highly detailed analysis of the evolution of this dynamic market. This assessment features an examination of the different drivers, including the continued expansion of marketplaces, an examination of challenges, such as different regulatory jurisdictions, and assessing key factors encouraging and disincentivising consumers and merchants from purchasing items from overseas. The report also contains a Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard for eCommerce merchants catering for an international market, positioning 17 key vendors; providing an important resource for understanding this complex market.

Furthermore, the report examines the future technologies that may play a role in cross-border eCommerce, including blockchain and CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), and how these will influence online sales. The report includes extensive market forecasts; delivering detailed insights and segmenting eCommerce payments by domestic versus cross-border, including splits for transaction value and volume, by the below categories:

Digital Goods
Physical Goods
Mobile-based Payments
PC-based Payments

This research suite comprises:

Strategy & Forecasts (PDF)
5-year Market Sizing & Forecast Spreadsheet (Excel)
12 Months' Access to harvest Online Data Platform

Key Market Statistics

Cross-border Market Size in 2023:	$1.6tn
Cross-border Market Size in 2028:	$3.4tn
2023 to 2028 Market Growth:	108%

KEY FEATURES

Market Dynamics: Provides a detailed assessment of market drivers and the key market trends within the cross-border eCommerce market, as well as an in-depth evaluation of the future growth of the market and readiness for further disruption. This enables readers to understand the critical innovations driving this market forward.

Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations: Featuring major opportunities and crucial factors for cross-border eCommerce highlighted across the landscape; making for important reading for key stakeholders, including the eCommerce platforms themselves.

Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment for 17 cross-border eCommerce platforms; positioning them as either established leaders, leading challengers, or disruptors and challengers. Our Competitor Leaderboard scores these companies on their size of operations in the space, their extent and breadth of market partnerships, the sophistication of their platforms, and Juniper Research's view on each company's innovation and future business prospects. The company profiles included in Juniper Research's Cross-border eCommerce Competitor Leaderboard are the following:
- Alibaba Group
- Allegro
- Amazon
- eBay
- Etsy
- JD.com
- Jumia
- Mercado Libre
- Mercari
- Newegg
- Pinduoduo / Temu
- Rakuten
- Shopee
- Vinted
- Walmart
- Wildberries
- Zalando

Benchmark Industry Forecasts: 5-year forecasts for the cross-border eCommerce market, including the total volume and value of domestic versus cross-border eCommerce split between physical & digital goods, and purchases made from mobile/PC devices. This data is also split by our 8 key regions and 60 countries as follows:

North America:
- Canada, US

Latin America:
- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay

West Europe:
- Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

Central & East Europe:
- Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine

Far East & China:
- China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea

Indian Subcontinent:
- Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan

Rest of Asia Pacific:
- Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

Africa & Middle East:
- Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates

KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

1. What are the different cross-border strategies employed by the major eCommerce marketplaces?

2. What attracts and disincentives consumers and merchants from using a cross-border marketplace?

3. Where will the biggest growth be for cross-border eCommerce opportunities?

4. What can stakeholders do to capitalise on emerging opportunities and secure their position in the market?

5. What will the value of cross-border eCommerce be by 2028?

COMPANIES REFERENCED

Included in the Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Alibaba Group, Allegro, Amazon, eBay, Etsy, JD.com, Jumia, Mercado Libre, Mercari, Newegg, Pinduoduo/Temu, Rakuten, Shopee, Vinted, Walmart, Wildberries, Zalando.

Mentioned: 4PX, Afterpay, AirBridgeCargo Airlines, AliExpress, Ant Group, Apple, ASDA, BigCommerce, Buyee, Cainiao, CedCommerce, Channel 4, ChannelAdvisor, Coca-Cola, Contact Credit Technologies, Daraz, DHL, eBay, EcoEnclose, Flipkart, Google, IMDb, InPost, ITV, JCB, Klarna, KnownOrigin, Lazada, Mastercard, Mimovrste, Nest, Nike, Packeta, Payability, PayPal, Philips, Prestashop, PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator), Ring, Roku, Shenzhen MTC, Shopify, Splitit, Storfund, Stripe, Taobao, Tmall, Trendyol, Twitch, Uber, UPS, Visa, Western Union, WhatsApp, Whole Foods Market, WooCommerce, Xianyu, Xiaomi, Yahoo!, Zip, Zipline.

DATA & INTERACTIVE FORECAST

The “Cross-border eCommerce” forecast suite includes 5-year forecasts for this market, split by online purchases by domestic versus overseas, including the following:>/p>

eCommerce payments, splits for transaction value and volume

eCommerce payments, split between the purchase of physical and digital goods

eCommerce payments, split between orders made using mobile or PC devices

Geographical splits: 60 countries
Number of tables: 54 tables
Number of datapoints: Over 18,200 datapoints

harvest: Our online data platform, harvest, contains the very latest market data and is updated throughout the year. This is a fully featured platform; enabling clients to better understand key data trends and manipulate charts and tables; overlaying different forecasts within the one chart - using the comparison tool. Empower your business with our market intelligence centre, and get alerted whenever your data is updated.

Interactive Excels (IFxl): Our IFxl tool enables clients to manipulate both forecast data and charts, within an Excel environment, to test their own assumptions using the interactive scenario tool and compare selected markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase a clients' ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

FORECAST SUMMARY

The value of cross-border eCommerce will exceed $3.3 trillion in 2028, from $1.6 trillion in 2023. With disposable income rising in developing markets, eCommerce merchants and marketplaces are pivoting towards them. Given the prevalence of alternative payment methods in developing markets, such as mobile money, cross-border merchants must effectively match consumers' payment preferences, or they will quickly lose out to better-localised rivalThis demonstrates that much of the growth in the eCommerce payments market is in the cross-border area. This is due to the rapid expansion of key marketplaces, and how they have differentiated themselves. For example, JD.com provides fast delivery times thanks to its strong logistics network. AliExpress offers considerably cheaper goods that offset the longer-than-preferred delivery times for consumers, while Amazon, Rakuten, and Mercado Libre provide value-added services, like streaming and integrated financial services. Marketplaces must offer a differentiated consumer experience to be successful, but must also add value for merchants, in order to sustain rapid growth.

In an increasingly social media-dominated advertising landscape, the leading vendors are effectively marketing directly to consumers. Central to competing with domestic merchants is appealing to digitally engaged users in a direct way; making social media advertising vital for success. For example, Temu has accompanied launches into new markets such as the UK & US with highly targeted direct advertising to users, fuelling rapid growth. Cross-border merchants must therefore correctly identify the right social media and digital advertising channels in each market, or risk losing out in the battle for tech-savvy consumers.

1. Key Takeaways

1.1. Key Takeaways
1.2. Strategic Recommendations

2. Market Overview

2.1. Introduction
- 2.1.2. Cross-border eCommerce
- 2.1.3. Key Trends
- 2.1.4. Challenges
- 2.1.5. Recommendations to Stakeholders

3. Cross-border eCommerce: Regional Analysis

3.1. Regional Analysis
- Figure 3.1: Value of Cross-border eCommerce by Country ($m), 2022
- Figure 3.2: Countries with the Highest Percentage of Cross-border Shoppers, 2022
- i. North America
- ii. Latin America
- iii. West Europe
  - Table 3.3: Cross-border Market Share and Total Turnover (€b), Split by Country, 2021
  - Table 3.4: Top 10 European eCommerce Players, 2022
- iv. Central & East Europe
- v. Far East & China
- vi. Indian Subcontinent
- vii. Rest of Asia Pacific
- viii. Africa & Middle East

4. Competitor Leaderboard and Vendor Profiles

4.1. Why Read This Report?
- Table 4.1: Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Cross-border eCommerce
- Figure 4.2: Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard for Cross-border eCommerce
- Table 4.3: Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Cross-border eCommerce Vendors & Positioning
- Table 4.4: Juniper Research Competitive Leaderboard Heatmap: Cross-border eCommerce Vendors
4.2. Vendor Profiles
- 4.2.1. Alibaba Group
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.5: Alibaba's Group Revenue and Operating Income ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.2. Allegro
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.6: Allegro's Revenue and Earnings ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.3. Amazon
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.7: Amazon's Revenue & Gross Profit ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.4. eBay
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.8: eBay's Revenue & Net Income ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.5. Etsy
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.9: Etsy's Revenue & Gross Profit ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.6. JD.com
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.10: JD.com's Revenue & Earnings ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.7. Jumia
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.11: Jumia's Revenue & Gross Profit ($m), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-Llevel View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.8. Mercado Libre
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.12: Mercado Libre's Revenue & Earnings ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.9. Mercari
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.13: Mercari's Revenue ($b) & Active Users (m), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.10. Newegg
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.14: Newegg's Revenue ($b) and Average Order Value ($), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.11. Pinduoduo & Temu
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.15: Pinduoduo's Revenue & Earnings ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.12. Rakuten
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.16: Rakuten's Revenue & Net Income ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.13. Shopee
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.17: Shopee's Revenue ($b) & Gross Orders (b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.14. Vinted
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.18: Vinted's Revenue & Losses ($m), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.15. Walmart
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.19: Walmart's Revenue & Earnings ($b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.16. Wildberries
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.20: Wildberries' Total Turnover ($b) & Total Goods Sold (b), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
- 4.2.17. Zalando
  - i. Corporate
    - Table 4.21: Zalando's Revenue ($b) & Gross Profit (% of Revenue), 2021-2022
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
4.3. Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard Assessment Methodology
4.4. Limitations & Interpretation
- Table 4.22: Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard Scoring Criteria - Cross-border eCommerce

5. Cross-border eCommerce: Market Forecasts

5.1. Introduction
5.2. Methodology & Assumptions
- i. Digital Goods
- ii. Physical Goods
  - Figure 5.1: Cross-border eCommerce Forecast Methodology, Physical Goods
  - Figure 5.2: Cross-border eCommerce Forecast Methodology, Digital Goods
5.3. Cross-border eCommerce Forecasts
- 5.3.1. Transaction Volume, Split by Channel
  - Figure & Table 5.3: Total Volume of Remote Payments for Physical & Digital Goods (m), Split by Domestic and Cross-border, 2023-2028
  - Table 5.4: Share of Remote Payments Volume for Physical & Digital Goods (%) Split by Domestic & Cross-border, 2023-2028
- 5.3.2. Transaction Value, Split by Channel
  - Figure & Table 5.5: Total Value of Remote Payments for Physical & Digital Goods ($m), Split by Domestic and Cross-border, 2023-2028
  - Table 5.6: Share of Remote Payments Value for Physical & Digital Goods (%) Split by Domestic & Cross-border, 2023-2028
- 5.3.3. Transaction Volume, Split by Device
  - Figure & Table 5.7: Total Volume of Remote Payments for Domestic & Cross-border Goods ($m) Split by Device, 2023-2028
  - Table 5.8: Share of Remote Payments Volume for Domestic & Cross-border Goods (%) Split by Device, 2023-2028
- 5.3.4. Transaction Value, Split by Device
  - Figure & Table 5.9: Total Value of Remote Payments for Domestic & Cross-border Goods ($m) Split by Device, 2023-2028
  - Table 5.10: Share of Remote Payments Value for Domestic & Cross-border Goods (%) Split by Device, 2023-2028