Recurring Payments: Key Opportunities, Payment Methods & Market Forecasts 2023-2027

REPORT OVERVIE

Juniper Research's new “Recurring Payments” research report provides an independent analysis of the future trajectory of this dynamic market, with the subscription economy and digital transformation within traditional recurring payments driving change. It analyses how the way these subscription payments and other recurring payments are made and handled is changing, including how billing platforms are increasingly using API (Application Programming Interface) driven digital platforms and changing payment models. It also examines how these models will change over time; influencing the way payment processors operate.

The research presents the ways in which improving payments made on an ongoing basis can increase customer retention and facilitate the billing process, including managing late payments and handling different billing cycles. It also presents insightful 5-year forecasts for the market, including the number of subscription services & billing arrangements involving recurring payments, and the spend via recurring payments. These metrics are split by recurring payment type (entertainment subscription, utilities, mortgage & rent, and other). The forecasts are also split by payment method, including the following:

• Bill Pay
• Card Payments
• Digital Wallets
• Direct Debit
• Open Banking

The recurring payments report positions 20 key market players in the Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard; providing an invaluable resource for stakeholders seeking to understand the competitive landscape in this highly varied and complex market.

The research suite comprises:

• Strategy & Forecasts (PDF)
• 5-year Market Sizing & Forecast Spreadsheet (Excel)
• 12 Months' Access to harvest Online Data Platform

Key Market Statistics - Transaction Value of Recurring Payments

Market size in 2023:	$13.2tn
Market size in 2027:	$15.4tn
2023 to 2027 growth:	17%

KEY FEATURES

• Market Dynamics: Provides a detailed assessment of market drivers and the key market trends within the recurring payments market, as well as an in-depth evaluation of the future growth of the market and readiness for further disruption. This enables readers to understand the critical innovations driving this market forward.

• Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations: Featuring major opportunities and crucial factors for recurring payments platforms highlighted across the landscape; making for important reading for key stakeholders, including payment providers, payment gateways and payment processors.

• Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment for 20 recurring payments platform providers; positioning them as either established leaders, leading challengers, or disruptors and challengers. Our Competitor Leaderboard scores these companies on their size of operations in the space, their extent and breadth of market partnerships, the sophistication of their platforms and Juniper Research's view on each company's innovation and future business prospects. The companies included in the Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard for recurring payments platforms are:
  • Adyen
  • Billwerk
  • Braintree
  • Chargebee
  • Chargeover
  • Circurly
  • Cloudmore
  • FastSpring
  • GoCardless
  • Maxio
  • Mollie
  • Ordway
  • Paddle
  • Recharge
  • Recurly
  • Sage Intacct
  • Stripe
  • Verifone
  • Zoho
  • Zuora

• Benchmark Industry Forecasts: 5-year forecasts for the recurring payments market, including the number of subscriptions & billing arrangements involving recurring payments, the number of these which are being handled via the different payment types (direct debit, bill pay, card payments, digital wallets, Open Banking), and the spend via recurring payments (also split by these metrics). Card payments include credit cards, debit cards and prepaid cards. These metrics are also split by recurring payment type (entertainment subscription, utilities, mortgage & rent, other). This data is also split by our 8 key regions and 60 countries as follows:

• North America:
  • Canada, US

• Latin America:
  • Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay

• West Europe:
  • Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

• Central & East Europe:
  • Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine

• Far East & China:
  • China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea

• Indian Subcontinent:
  • Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan

• Rest of Asia Pacific:
  • Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

• Africa & Middle East:
  • Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates

KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

• 1. What are the drivers and constraints of the recurring payments market?

• 2. In future, how will merchants best be able to accept recurring payments from customers?

• 3. Who are the leading recurring payments vendors in the market?

• 4. How will the market be disrupted over the next 5 years?

• 5. What will the total value of the recurring market be over the next five years?

COMPANIES REFERENCED

• Included in the Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Adyen, Billwerk, Braintree, Chargebee, Chargeover, Circurly, Cloudmore, FastSpring, GoCardless, Maxio, Mollie, Ordway, Paddle, Recharge, Recurly, Sage Intacct, Stripe, Verifone, Zoho, Zuora.

• Mentioned: 3dcart, Accel, Airbnb, Amazon, Anrok, AON, Apple, ARIA, ASOS, Attentive, Authorize.net, Avalara, AXA Group, BigCommerce, BitPay, Boohoo, Bouncer, Bugaboo, BusySeed, Capture One, Castbox, Caterpillar, Chili Piper, Click Funnels, Computime, Conrelsen, Crunchbase, Deezer, Deliveroo, DocuSign, Drone Deploy, Dropbox, EasyJet, eBay, Ecommpay, Ecosio, Electronic Arts, Etsy, Exosite, Fidelity Management, GeoGuessr, GitHub, GM (General Motors), GoFundMe, Google, Gousto, HelloFresh, HM Government, HostedBizz, How2Pay, HP, HubSpot, IBM, iDenfy, Insight Partners, Integrity Data, Jettison, JPMorgan Chase, Just Eat, Klarna, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Kount, KPMG, Laravel, Levi's, LoyaltyLion, Lure Creative, MacPaw, MailBird, Masterpass, McDonalds, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nordigen, NotePlan, Nutmeg, Okta, OpenChannel, Oracle, PayPal, PONS, PowerCloud, PrestaShop, Puma, RangeMe, ReceiptHero, Recko, RSM, RTL+, Salesforce, Samsonite, SAP, Sapphire Ventures, Schneider Electric, Sequoia, Siemens, Skyscanner, Slack, Slalom, Snowflake, Sony, Spotify, Squarespace, Stack Overflow, Steadview Capital Management, Stokke, Subscrybe, tailwind.labs, Telia Company, Thales, The Guardian, Tidal, Tide, TIER, TigerGlobal, TouchNote , TripAdvisor, Trusted Tech Team, Typeform, Uber, UK Worldpay, Venmo, Waipu.tv, White Castle, Wix, WooCommerce, WPP, Xero, Yodel, Zoom, Zwingel Book.

DATA & INTERACTIVE FORECAST

The “Recurring Payments” forecast suite includes 5-year forecasts for this market, including the following:

• The number of households with subscriptions & billing arrangements
• The number of subscriptions and billing arrangements per household
• The number of subscriptions & billing arrangements involving recurring payments
• The number of these which are being handled via different payment types
• The spend via recurring payments (also split by different payment types)

The payment types included within the forecast are below:

• Bill Pay
• Card Payments
• Digital Wallets
• Direct Debit
• Open Banking

These metrics are also split by recurring payment type:

• Entertainment Subscription
• Mortgage & Rent
• Utilities
• Other

• Geographical splits: 60 countries
• Number of tables: 125 tables
• Number of datapoints: Over 53,600 datapoints

harvest: Our online data platform, harvest, contains the very latest market data and is updated throughout the year. This is a fully featured platform; enabling clients to better understand key data trends and manipulate charts and tables; overlaying different forecasts within the one chart - using the comparison tool. Empower your business with our market intelligence centre, and get alerted whenever your data is updated.

Interactive Excels (IFxl): Our IFxl tool enables clients to manipulate both forecast data and charts, within an Excel environment, to test their own assumptions using the interactive scenario tool and compare selected markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase a clients' ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

FORECAST SUMMARY

• The transaction value of recurring payments will exceed $15.4 trillion globally in 2027, from $13.2 trillion in 2023. This relatively slow growth of 17% reflects that recurring payments are a well-established market, but also disguises a rapid change of payment methods in the space, with Open Banking and digital wallet payments outstripping overall growth. As merchants struggle to keep their prices as low as possible, offering payment methods with lower processing costs is of critical importance and is driving change, as it is growing consumer enthusiasm for digital payment methods.

• As part of this study, Juniper Research released its latest Competitor Leaderboard for 2023. Underpinned by a robust scoring methodology, the new Competitor Leaderboard ranked the top 20 recurring payments platforms, using criteria such as the completeness of their solutions and their future business prospects.

• The top 3 vendors for 2023:
  • 1. Mollie
  • 2. Zuora
  • 3. Recurly

• The leading players scored well based on their breadth of integrations with different payment options and their tracking and customisable payment plan capabilities. In order to stay ahead of the competition, recurring payments platform vendors must develop solutions that support future-looking payment types as they are developed, such as Open Banking and CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), in order to stay relevant in the fast-moving consumer payments space.

• For merchants, they want to be able to bill their clients on a recurring or one-off basis, with the ability to create custom plans that match customer requirements, not the system capabilities. Those platform vendors offering an agile, API-based system will best meet these requirements and succeed in this highly competitive market.