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Market Research Report

Mobile Operator Business Models: Challenges, Opportunities & Strategies 2017-2021

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Mobile Operator Business Models: Challenges, Opportunities & Strategies 2017-2021
Published: January 9, 2017 Content info:


For more than 5 years, Juniper has delivered the most authoritative research suite on mobile operator business models. This research is specifically designed to provide industry executives with market leading insight, analysis and recommendations into all the key issues that threaten to disrupt and transform their industry.

Providing an authoritative, objective assessment of operator challenges and opportunities, this research is a must-have strategic guide for industry professionals.

This research:

  • Explores the strategies which MNOs should deploy to remain competitive in an environment increasingly dominated by the OTTs.
  • Analyses means by which operators can increase existing revenue streams as well as introduce new ones.
  • Considers the decisions that operators will need to take as they seek to migrate to a 5G environment.
  • Delivers a series of ‘best-fit' strategic solutions for cost reduction and revenue generation for both Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators in developed and developing markets

Key Features

  • Strategic guide to maximising new revenue streams and cost reduction.
  • Assesses and quantifies the nature and scale of the threats facing network operators.
  • Highlights a host of alternative pricing and bundling options through which players can better monetise their core voice and data offerings.
  • Heat map analysis enabling Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators in both developed and developing markets to prioritise their strategic decisions and maximise their revenue potential.
  • Market forecasts for new revenue opportunities.

Key Questions

  • 1.How can mobile network operators best monetise their core services within an all-IP environment?
  • 2.How will operator ARPUs and service revenues develop over the next 5 years?
  • 3.How can network virtualisation provide the optimal solution for delivering IoT (Internet of Things) services?
  • 4.How should network operators address the problem of grey route A2P traffic?
  • 5.Which mobile money services should operators deploy?

Companies Referenced

3GPP, 42 Telecom, AdaptiveMobile, AIME (Association for Interactive Media & Entertainment), AIS, Alibaba, Alipay, Amazon, Amdocs, American Tower, Anam Technologies, Apple, AT&T, Bango, BEREC, Bharti Airtel, Bharti Infratel, BlackBerry, Boku, Box TV, BT, Canal+, Cellmania, Centersight, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Tower, China Unicom, CM Telecom, Crown Castle, Danal, Deezer, Deutsche Telekom, Dialogue, DIMOCO, DirecTV, dittoTV, DTAC, Dyn, Econet, EE, Ericsson, ESPN, Etisalat, Facebook, Fonix, Fortumo, Gaana, Gemalto, Giesecke & Devrient, Globe, Google, GSMA, Guangzhou Qida Electronic Technology, HT-Mobile, Huawei, Hutchison Whampoa, Idea Cellular, IMI, Impulse, Indosat, Indus Towers, Inmarsat, Iusacell, KakaoTalk, Kik, Kore, KPN, La Caixa, LINE, loglevel, Loop Mobile, Lyca Mobile, M2X Data Service, Mediaproduccion, Mediaset Premium, Microsoft, Mixi, Mobifone, Mobinil, Movistar, Mozilla, NEC, Netflix, Net-M, Netsize, Network LeaseCo, Nextel, NextM2M, Nimbuzz, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, O2, Ofcom, OpenMarket, Orange, Orca, Oxygen8, Payforit, PayPal, PlayJam, Reliance Communications, Safaricom, Samsung, Satelindo, SES, SK Telecom, Sky, Smart, Snapchat, Softbank, Sony,

S-Phone, Spotify, Sprint, Sun, Syniverse, Telcel, Telecel, Telefonica, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Telkomsel, Telstra, Telxius, Terra, textPlus, Three UK, Tigo, Time Warner, T-Mobile, Turner Sports, Twitter, txtNation, Unino, Velti, Veoo, Verizon Wireless, Viber, Vietnamobile, Viettel, Vimpelcom, Vinafone, Virgin Media, VN, Vodafone, WeChat, WhatsApp, World Bank, XL Axiata, Zong.

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper Research's highly granular interactive excels enable clients to compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables.

This user friendly document allows the purchaser to gain an in-depth understanding of operator revenue streams, both in terms of core (voice and data) revenues and new opportunities from areas such as M2M (machine to machine), direct carrier billing and analytics.

The forecast suite also includes:

  • Regional & Sector Analysis tools allowing clients to compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of more than 500 datapoints.
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Overview: New Revenue Opportunities & Recommendations

  • 1.1. Introduction
  • 1.2. The New Revenue Opportunity
    • Figure & Table 1.1: New Revenue Opportunities for MNOs ($m), Split By Revenue Stream 2016-2021
    • Figure & Table 1.2: Increase in Regional Net Revenues ($m), Split by Stream 2021 v 2016
    • Figure 1.3: Increase in MNO Additional Revenue Streams Compared to Decline in Core Revenues, 2016 vs. 2021 (%)
  • 1.3. Strategic Options & Recommendations
    • l.3.1. 0ptimising Existing Revenue Streams
      • i. Pricing Models
      • ii CRM (Customer Relationship Management)
        • Figure 1.4: Adaptive Strategies for Optimising Existing Revenue Streams
    • 1.3.2. Developing New Revenue Streams & Reducing Costs
      • i. Carrier Billing
      • ii. Mobile Money
      • iii. Mobile Identity
      • iv. A2P Messaging
      • v. Big Data & Analytics
      • vi. Network Strategies
        • Figure 1.5: Adaptive Strategies for Developing New Revenue Streams and Reducing Costs

2. The Challenge: A Saturated World

  • 2.1. A Saturated World
  • 2.2. MNO ARPUs are Declining
    • 2.2.1. Attributing Factors
      • Figure 2.1:Operator-billed Monthly ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2005-2015
    • 2.2.2. ARPU Baseline Analysis: Developed Markets
      • Figure 2.2: Baseline Analysis of Historic ARPU), Developed Markets 2005-2015
      • Figure 2.3: Baseline Analysis of Historic ARPU, Developing/Emerging Market 2005-2015
    • 2.2.3. Regional ARPU Forecasts
      • Figure 2.4: Mobile ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2016-2021
  • 2.3. The Rise of the OTTs
    • 2.3.1. Mobile Communications in Transition
    • 2.3.2. OTT Messaging Substitution
      • Table 2.5: Leading Mobile IM Service Users Bases (Active/Registered) & Traffic Levels 2015-2016
      • Figure 2.6:WhatsApp vs SMS
        • i. Regional Variations
        • ii. Quantifiable Impact
          • Figure 2.7: Average SMS Sent Per User Per Month, Selected Operators, 2011-2015
    • 2.3.3. Social Media Substitution
      • Figure 2.8: Facebook Mobile Users (m), 2008-Hl 2016
    • 2.3.4. OTT VoIP Substitution
      • i. Quantifying the OTT Effect
        • Figure & Table 2.9: The Lost Opportunity: MNO Revenue Loss to OTT mVoIP/IM Services ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
        • Figure 2.1O: Operator Billed Revenues vs Revenues ‘Lost' to OTTs ($bn), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2016
    • 2.3.5. Disrupting the MNOI Consumer Relationship
      • i. Decoupling Spells Danger for MNOs
  • 2.4. Regulatory Impact: Pricing Caps
    • Figure 2.11: Annual Roaming Revenues ($bn), Western European MNOs, 2013-2017
  • 2.5. MNO Revenues are Now in Decline
    • Figure 2.12: The Fall in MNO Revenues

3. The Challenge: A Data Centric World

  • 3.1. Introduction
  • 3.2. Rising 0pex: Data Delivery Costs
    • 3.2.1. The Rise of the Mobile Internet
      • Figure 3.1: Key Indicators, Smartphones & Apps, 2016
      • Figure 3.2: Total Data Traffic Generated by Mobile Handsets, 2016-2021 (PB/annum) Split by Traffic Category
      • Figure 3.3: Total Data Traffic Carried Via Cellular Networks (PB/Annum) Split by Originating Device Type 2016-2021
  • 3.3. Rising Capex: Network Buildout
    • 3.3.1. Spectrum Costs: 4G
      • Figure 3.4: Comparative Revenue Streams (£m) from Nascent UK 3G (Three UK, 2004-2006) & 4G (EE, 2013-201 5) Services
    • 3.3.2. Spectrum Costs: 5G
    • 3.3.3. 5G Challenges
      • Figure 3.5: Global Connected Devices (m)2015-2020
    • 3.3.4. Expanding Coverage: 3G and 4G
  • 3.4. Summary: Flat lining Revenues, Rising Capex, Rising 0pex
    • Figure & Table 3.6: Base Line Analysis of Glabal Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU & Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2015-2021
    • Figure & Table 3.7: Global MNO Service Revenues vs Capex/ Opex ($bn)2015-2021

4. Looking Forward: Monetising Core Services in an AII IP Environment

  • 4.1. New Strategies, New Business Models
  • 4.2. Strategic Approaches in a 4G & 5G Environment
    • 4.2.1. LTE Options for Voice Explored by Operators but VoLTE Slow to Take 0ff
      • Figure 4.1:VoLTE Users, Year End (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2016
  • 4.3. Business Model Options
    • 4.3.1. The Shared Data Plan
      • Figure 4.2: Verizon Wireless, More Everything (2014) &Verizon Plan (2016) Monthly Data Allowance Charges ($)
      • Table 4.3: Verizon Wireless, Monthly Line Charges Per Device ($), 2014 & 2016
      • Figure 4.4: AT&T Mobile Share Accounts Connections (m), 2013-2016
      • i. Juniper's View
    • 4.3.2. The Unlimited Data Option
      • i. What is Unlimited Data?
      • ii. Juniper's View
    • 4.3.3. The Content Bundle
      • i. Juniper's View
    • 4.3.4. The Social Media Bundle
      • i. Juniper's View
    • 4.3.5. Third-Party Pays
      • i. Juniper's View
      • ii. Zero-Rating & Net Neutrality
    • 4.3.6. A Quad-Play World
      • i. Carrier OTT: Beyond the Dumb Pipe
        • Figure 4.5: AT&T, U-verse Video Customers (m) & Annual Revenues 2008-2015
      • ii. Sport: A Key Content Battleground?
        • Figure 4.6: The English Premier League in Numbers
  • 4.4. After-Sails Service
    • Figure 4.7: Customer Satisfaction Levels by Provider Channel, 2011-2015(%)

5. Looking Forward: New Networks, New Revenue Streams

  • 5.1. Reimagining the Network: 0ptimisation in a 5G World
    • 5.1.1. Delivering a 5G Network for IoT
      • i. Solution 1:A Parallel Network
        • Figure 5.1: vEPC (virtual Evolved Packet Core) Concept
        • Figure 5.2: AT&T Key Network Metrics, 2015
      • ii. Solution 2: Narrowband IoT
    • 5.1.2. Network Security
    • 5.1.3. The 'Densification' Challenge
    • 5.1.4. Backhaul Requirements
      • i. Addressing the Latency Challenge: MEC (Mobile Edge Computing)
    • 5.1.5. Who Owns the Network Infrastructure?
      • i. Third-Party Ownership/Management
        • Figure 5.3: Recent US MNO Tower Deals
      • ii. Joint Venture Model
      • iii. Wholly-owned Subsidiary
  • 5.2. Reimagining the Connectivity: eSlMs
    • Table 5.4: Average M2M Device Lifespan by Industry
  • 5.3. New Revenue Streams: Identifying A2P Traffic
    • 5.3.1. The Challenge
      • Figure 5.5: International Grey Route Traffic Process
      • Figure 5.6: Direct Connected vs Grey Route A2P Costs
    • 5.3.2. The Solution
  • 5.4. New Revenue Streams: Monetising IoT
    • 5.4.1. The Challenge
      • Figure 5.7: Comparative Average Monthly Cellular Data Usage (MB), Selected US Devices 2016
    • 5.4.2. The Opportunity: (Big) Data Monetization
      • i. Pricing Models

6. Looking Forward: Leveraging the Billing Relationship

  • 6.1. Introduction
    • Table 6.1: Carrier Billing Availability by Selected Storefront, 2012-2015
  • 6.2. Carrier Billing Drivers
    • Figure 6.2: Unbanked Adult Population (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2015
    • Figure 6.3: Banked Penetration by Country, 2015 (%)
    • Table 6.4: Google Play/Facebook Carrier Billing Availability by Operator, Largest Unbanked Markets November2016
    • Figure 6.5: Billing Mechanism Conversion Rate Comparison, Low Value Purchases: Credit Card vs Direct Carrier Billing
  • 6.3. Direct Carrier Billing Challenges
    • Figure 6.6: Prepaid Users as a Proportion of the Mobile User Base (%) Selected Markets 2014
    • Figure 6.7: The Carrier Billing Consumer Journey
    • Figure 6.8: Juniper Challenge Assessment Matrix, Content Carrier Billing

7. Looking Forward: The Mobile Money Opportunity

  • 7.1. Why Should MNOs Launch Mobile Money Services?
    • 7.1.1. Mobile Wallets Exceed Banked Accounts
      • Figure 7.1: Mobile Money Account vs Banking Penetration, Selected Markets, 2014 (%)
    • 7.1.2. Evolving the Inclusive Opportunity: Deploying Sohisticated Mobile Financial Services
      • Figure 7.2: Mobile Money Deployments (as of October 2016)
      • Figure 7.3: Phased Evolution of Mobile Money
  • 7.2. The Revenue Opportunity: Monetising Mobile Money
  • 7.3. Developed Markets: Where is the Mobile Money Opportunity for MNOs?
    • 7.3.1. International Money Transfer
      • Figure 7.4: How Do You Usually Send Money?
    • 7.3.2. Securing the Transaction: The Authentication Opportunity
      • i. Creating a Mobile Identity
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