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5G Market Strategies

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5G Market Strategies
Published: July 5, 2017 Content info:
Description

Overview

Our latest 5G research provides expert insight, examining each of the key verticals by opportunity and pricing strategy. It provides stakeholder recommendations and market forecasts for the period 2019-2025.

The research examines operator approaches to future spectrum auctions and technology investment and evaluates viable pathways for operators to maximise return on investment by vertical sector.

Additionally, the research provides a detailed update on 4G LTE market development, providing forecasts for 2017-2022.

This research suite comprises:

  • Market Trends & Competitive Landscape (PDF)
  • 8 Year Market Sizing & Forecasts (PDF & Excel)
  • Executive Summary & Core Findings (PDF)

Key Features

  • Sector Dynamics: Detailed analysis of the present market state and future outlook for 5G, examining:
    • Assessment of operator market status, trials and network deployments
    • ARPU/ARPC pricing strategy analysis per market vertical
    • Key market forces, including demand drivers, technological challenges and future business model evolution
    • 5G Opportunities & strategic recommendations
  • Sector Analysis: A strategic review of the 5G market landscape across 8 global regions for key verticals including:
    • Augmented Reality & Virtual Reality
    • Automotive
    • Digital Health Wearables
    • Mobile Broadband
    • Smart Cities
    • Smart Homes
  • Benchmark Industry Forecasts: A highly granular data set mapping out the key opportunities, covering adoption, connections, operator billed revenue and more for 8 global regions and 7 key country markets, including:
    • Canada
    • China
    • Germany
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • UK
    • US
  • Interviews: Insights from leading players, including:
    • Cisco
    • Commscope
    • Gemalto
    • NEC
    • ZTE
  • Juniper Leaderboard: Key 5G vendors - player capability and capacity assessment and positioning.

Key Questions

  • 1. When and where will the first commercial 5G services be deployed?
  • 2. Which network vendors are making the most progress in 5G network solutions?
  • 3. How will 5G deployments influence operator business models and service revenues?
  • 4. How will 5G ARPC evolve over the next 8 years?
  • 5. Which IoT sector will 5G accelerate the most?

Companies Referenced

  • Interviewed: 5GAA (5G Automotive Association), Cisco Systems, CommScope, NEC, Vodafone, ZTE.
  • Profiled: CBNL, Cisco Systems, CommScope, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, Intel, NEC, Nokia Networks, Qualcomm, Samsung, ZTE.
  • Case Studied: 5GAA (5G Automotive Association), Huawei, IBM.
  • Mentioned: 3Com, 5GIC (5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey), 5GMF (5G Mobile Communications Promotion Forum), Airtel, Airvana, Alcatel-Lucent, Alliance Corporation, Alphabet, Amazon, América Móvil, Anritsu, Apple, ARCEP (Autorite de Regulation des Communications Electroniques et des Postes), ARM, Arquiva, AT&T, Atos, Audi, Avantel, Avaya Connectivity Solutions, AWRI (Advanced Wireless Research Initiative), Bell Labs, Biotelemetry, BMW, BT, Bundesnetzagentur, Cadillac, Cellcom, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, CHT (Chunghwa Telecom), ConVergence Technologies, Cosmote, Daimler, DEA (Danish Energy Agency), Dell, Deutsche Telekom, DLink, DNA, Dyn, EE, Etisalat Group, ETSI, Expresso Telecoms Group, Far EasTone, FCC (Federal Communications Commission), Ford, France Telecom, Gainspeed, Google, GSMA, Hewlett Packard, Hitachi, Hutchison, Idea Cellular, IEEE, Infineon, Intel, InterCEL, ISO, ITU (International Telecommunications Union), Jaguar Land Rover, Juniper Networks, Kathrein, KDDI, Keysight Technologies, KPN, KT (Korea Telecom), LG, LG U+, LSI, MegaFon, Mercedes-Benz, Microsoft, Mitsubishi Electric, Mobile TeleSystems, Mobily, MTN, MTS Sistema, Netflix, Nortel, NTT DOCOMO, Nuevatel, O2, Ofcom, Oi, Ooredoo, Open Hyperscale Lab, Orange, Panasonic, ParStream, PayPal, PCCW HKT, PTS (Post and Telecom Authority), Red Hat, Reliance, SAE, Scartel, SKT (SK Telecom), Smart Cities Council, SmarTone, Soft Machines, SoftBank, Sonim, Spark, Spreadtrum, Sprint, StraightPath, Sun Microsystems, Swan, Swisscom, TAG, TE Connectivity, Telecom Italia, Telefonica, Telenet, Telia, Telkomsel, Telstra, Telus, Three, TIM, T-Mobile, Twitter, U Mobile, UCell, US Internet, UTStarcom, VEON (formerly VimpelCom), Verizon, Verizon 5G Technology Forum, Viptela, Vivo, VMWare, Vodacom, Vuzix, Wikitude, Wind, Windstream, Winncom, Zain KSA.

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper's latest 5G Market Strategies forecast suite includes:

  • Market data splits for 8 key global regions, and 7 countries including:
    • Canada
    • China
    • Germany
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • UK
    • US
  • 4G LTE Connections, ARPU, and Operator Billed Service Revenue, split by:
    • Consumer
    • Enterprise
  • 5G Connections, ARPC, and Operator Billed Service Revenue, split by key verticals:
    • Augmented Reality & Virtual Reality
    • Automotive
    • Digital Health Wearables
    • Mobile Broadband
    • Smart Cities
    • Smart Homes
  • Interactive Scenario tool allowing user the ability to manipulate Juniper's data for 20 different metrics.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of 102 tables and over 10,000 datapoints.

Juniper Research's highly granular interactive excels enable clients to manipulate Juniper's forecast data and charts to test their own assumptions using the Interactive Scenario Tool; and compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase clients' ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Deep Dive Strategy & Competition

1.4G & Defining the 5G Future

  • 1.1. Introduction
    • Figure 1.1: Cellular Network Evolution Snapshot
  • 1.2. Defining 4G
    • 1.2.1. LTE & LTE-A
    • 1.2.2. LTE-U & LAA
    • 1.2.3. LTE-A Pro
  • 1.3. 4G LTE Market Update
    • Figure 1.2: 4G LTE Market Update
  • 1.4 5G Networks
    • 1.4.1 Defining 5G
      • Figure 1.3: Figure 1.4: IMT-2020 Standardization Timeline
  • 1.5 The 5G Standard - Key Requisites
    • Figure 1.5: 5G Requirements -A Snapshot
  • i. High Data Rates
    • Figure 1.6: Key 5G Performance Requirements
    • ii. Latency Requirements
    • iii. Spectral Efficiency
    • iv. Energy Consumption & Battery Life
    • v. Roaming Requirements
  • 1.6 The Demand for 5G
    • Figure 1.7: The Demand for 5G
    • i. 5G in the Healthcare Sector
    • ii. 5G in the Automotive Sector
      • Figure 1.8: 5G-Enabled V2X Service Benefits
    • iii. 5G Mobile Broadband
    • iv. 5G Smart City

2. 5G Market Dynamics: ROI Analysis & Business Models

  • 2.1 Reimagining the Network: 0ptimisation in a 5G World
    • 2.1.1 Delivering a 5G Network for the IoT
      • i. Solution 1:A Parallel Network
        • Figure 2.1: vEPC (virtual Evolved Packet Core) Concept
        • Figure 2.2: AT&T Key Network Metrics, 2015
      • ii. Solution 2: NB-IoT (Narrowband IoT)
    • 2.1.2 Network Security
    • 2.1.3 The 'Densification' Challenge
    • 2.1.4 Backhaul Requirements
      • i. Addressing the Latency Challenge: MEC (Mobile Edge Computing)
  • 2.2 Development & Spectrum Cost Analysis
    • 2.2.1 5G: R&D (Research & Development) Investments 2017-2022
      • Figure 2.3: Cumulative 5G Research & Development Investments ($m) 2017-2022
    • 2.2.2 Spectrum Cost Analysis
      • i. 4G Spectrum Costs Analysis
        • Table 2.4: 4G Spectrum Auction Cost Analysis: Selected Markets
      • ii. 5G Spectrum Auction Update
      • iii. 5G Spectrum Cost Analysis
        • Figure 2.5: Estimated 5G Spectrum Auctions Costs ($m) & Price per MHz Individual ($) for Selected Markets by 2022
      • iv. 5G Spectrum Roadmap
  • 2.3 5G Business Models &Ensuring ROI
    • 2.3.1 Opportunities in the IoT
      • Figure 2.6: Total Connected IoT Units (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2017-20
      • i. 5G-enabled Vertical Markets
        • Figure 2.7: Strategy Quadrant: 5G & the IoT
      • ii. Case Study: Huawei's TAC-2020
        • Figure 2.8: TAC-2020 by Huawei
    • 2.3.2 Operator Strategies, ARPC & Monetisation
  • 2.4 5G Player Analysis & Future Roles in the Market
    • ii. 0fcom
    • iii. FCC (Federal Communications Commission)
    • 2.4.2 Mobile Operators & Service Providers
      • i. EE
      • ii. 02
      • iii. Verizon
      • iv. Vodafone
      • v. NTT DOCOMO
    • 2.4.3 Network Vendors
      • i. Samsung
      • ii. Nokia Networks
      • iii. Huawei
      • iv. Erricsson
      • v. ZTE

3.5G Sector Analysis & Strategic Recommendations

  • 3.1 5G Automotive
    • Figure 3.1:5G Automotive Market Snapshot: 2025
    • 3.1.1 Automotive 5G Technological Requirements
      • i. Network Operators in 5G Automotive
      • ii. Network Vendors in Automotive 5G
      • iii. Case Study: 5G Automotive Association
    • 3.1.2 5G Automotive: Strategic Recommendations
      • Figure 3.2: 5G Automotive Forecasts ARPC & Total Connectivity Enablement Revenues for Select Regions 2019-2025
  • 3.2 5G Digital Health
    • Figure 3.3: 5G Digital Market Snapshot: 2022
    • 3.2.1 The Demand for 5G in the Health Sector
      • i. The Limitations of Big Data
    • 3.2.2 5G Digital Health: Strategic Recommendations
      • Table 3.4: Healthcare Problems & Digital Solutions
      • Figure 3.5: EE's Wembley Deal
  • 3.3 5G Smart Cities
    • Figure 3.6: 5G Smart Cities Market Snapshot: 2025
    • Figure 3.7: Geographical Spread of Smart City Devices that are 5G Connected
    • 3.3.1 5G Smart Cities: Strategic Recommendations
      • v. Case Study: IBM Smarter Cities Challenge
  • 3.4 5G Smart Homes
    • Figure 3.8: 5G Smart Home Market Snapshot: 2025
    • 3.4.1 5G Smart Homes: Strategic Recommendations
  • 3.5 5G AR &VR
    • Figure 3.9: 5G AR & VR Market Snapshot: 2025
    • 3.5.1 5G AR & VR Strategic Recommendations
  • 3.6 5G Mobile Broadband
    • Figure 3.10: 5G Mobile Broadband Market Snapshot: 2022
    • 3.6.1 5G Mobile Broadband: Strategic Recommendations
      • Figure 3.11: Global 5G Mobile Broadband ARPC, Split by Consumer and Enterprise Services 2019-2025

4.5G Market Strategies: Competitive Landscape

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Vendor Analysis
    • 4.2.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria
      • Table 4.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors
      • Figure 4.2: Juniper Leaderboard - 5G Network Vendors
      • Table 4.3: Juniper Heatmap Results - 5G Network Vendors
    • 4.2.2 Vendors Groupings - 5G Network Vendors
      • i. Established Leaders
      • ii. Leading Challengers
      • iii. Disruptors & Emulators
  • 4.3 Limitations & Interpretations
  • 4.4 Movers & Shakers
  • 4.5 Player Profiles
    • 4.5.1 CBNL
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.2 Cisco Systems
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.4: Cisco Financial Performance Snapshot ($bn) 2014-2016
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.5: Cisco's NFV & SDN Orchestration
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.3 CommScope
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.6: CommScope Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2014-201(
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.4 Ericsson
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.7: Ericsson Financial Performance Snapshot (SEK bn) 2014-201l
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.8: Ericsson 3xMulti Radio Network Solution
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.5 Fujitsu
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.9: Fujitsu Financial Performance Snapshot ($bn) 2014-2016
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.6 Huawei
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.10: Huawei Financial Performance Snapshot (CNY bn) 2014-201E
      • ii. Geographical Spread
        • Figure 4.11: Huawei Geographical Revenue Split (%), 2016
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.7 Intel Corporation
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.12: Intel Financial Performance Snapshot ($bn) 2014-2016
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper View: Key Strengths & Strategic Partnerships
    • 4.5.8 NEC
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.13: NEC Financial Performance Snapshot (\bn) 2014-2016
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.14: NEC LTE Small Cell Product Portfolio
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.9 Nokia Networks
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.15: Nokia Networks Financial Performance Snapshot (Em) 2015-;
      • ii. Geographical Spread
        • Figure 4.16: Nokia Networks Net Sales by Region, Q4 2016
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
    • 4.5.10 Qualcomm
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.17: Qualcomm Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2014-2016
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of 0rrerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strength & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.11 Samsung Networks
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.1 8: Samsung Financial Performance Snapshot (KRW tn) 2014-2(
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of 0rferings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strength & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.12 ZTE
      • i. Corporate
        • Table 4.1 9: ZTE Financial Performance Snapshot (RMB bn) 2014-2016
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of 0rferings
        • Figure 4.20: Proposed Evolution to 5G, ZTE
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities

Deep Dive Data & Forecasting

1. ThePathto 5G

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 4G LTE Market Update
    • Figure 1.1:4G LTE Market Update

2. 4G & 5G: A Market Summary

  • 2.1 4G & 5G Market Summary
    • Figure & Table 2.1: Mobile Active SIM Connection Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2017-2022
    • 2.1.1 Active 4G & 5G Connections
      • Figure & Table 2.2: Global Mobile 4G &5G Active SIM Connections (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2017-2022

3.5G Market Forecasts & Key Takeaways

  • 3.1 5G: Adoption & Revenue Forecasts
    • 3.1.1 5G Methodology
      • i. Pricing model assumptions-
        • Figure 3.1: 5G User & Revenues Forecast Methodology
    • 3.1.2 Global Mobile 5G Active Connections
      • Figure &Table 3.2: Global Mobile 5G Active Connections (m)Split by 8 Key Regions 2019-2025
    • 3.1.3 Total Operator Billed 5G Revenues
      • Figure & Table 3.3: Total Operator Billed 5G Revenues ($bn) Split by 8 Key Regions 2019-2025
    • 3.1.4 Global Mobile 5G Active Connections
      • Figure & Table 3.4: Global Mobile Enterprise 5G Active Connections, Split by Consumer & Commercial (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2019-2022
    • 3.1.5 Total Global 5G Operator Billed Revenue
      • Figure & Table 3.5: Total Global 5G Operator Billed Revenue ($m) Split by Consumer & Enterprise Segments 2019-2025

4.5G Sector Forecasts & Takeaways

  • 4.1 5G Sector Analysis
    • 4.1.1 Methodology
      • i. Pricing model assumptions-
        • Figure 4.1: 5G Sector Analysis Forecast Methodology
  • 4.2 5G Sector Analysis
    • 4.2.1 5G Connections Forecast
      • Figure & Table 4.2: Total Number of 5G Connections (m)Split by 6IoT Sector 2019-2025
    • 4.2.2 5G Enterprise ARPC Connection
      • Figure & Table 4.3: Enterprise 5G Connection ARPC ($), Split by 6IoT Sector 2019-2025
    • 4.2.3 5G IoT Revenue Forecast
      • Figure & Table 4.4: Total Operator Billed 5G IoT Revenues ($m)Split by 6 IoT Sectors 2019-2025
    • 4.2.4 5G Forecast Sector Analysis
      • i. 5g automotive
      • ii. 5G Mobile Broadband
      • iii. 5G Smart Cities
      • iv. 5G Smart Homes
      • v. 5G Digital Health Wearables
      • vi. 5G AR & VR

5.4G Market Forecasts & Key Takeaways

  • 5.1 4G LTE Forecasts
    • 5.1.1 Methodology
      • Figure 5.1:4G Methodology
    • 5.1.2 Number of 4G LTE Connections (m)
      • Figure & Table 5.2: Number of 4G LTE Connections (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2017-2022
    • 5.1.3 Global 4G LTE Enterprise & Consumer Connections
      • Figure & Table 5.3: Global 4G LTE Connections (m) Split by Enterprise & Consumer 2017-2022
    • 5.1.4 Blended Enterprise & Consumer LTE ARPU Forecast
      • Figure & Table 5.4: Blended LTE Operator Billed ARPU (Consumer & Commercial) ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2017-2022
    • 5.1.5 Total Operator Billed LTE Revenues
      • Figure & Table 5.5: Total Operator Billed LTE Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2017-2022
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