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Market Research Report

Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS

Published by Juniper Research Product code 352907
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Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS
Published: May 23, 2018 Content info:
Description

Overview

Juniper's ground-breaking research into Autonomous Vehicles charts the anticipated opportunities in the Consumer & Commercial Driverless Cars market. It also investigates developments that technologies such as ADAS (Advanced Driverless Assistance Systems) will enable, offering valuable insights into the future market.

Providing a comprehensive analysis of current and future developments in the market; this includes a strategic assessment, player positioning and ranking of key OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers and new disruptive players.

This research includes:

  • Deep Dive Strategy & Competition (PDF)
  • 8 Year Deep Dive Data & Forecasting (PDF & Excel)
  • Executive Summary & Core Findings (PDF)

Key Features

  • Trends Assessment: Strategic evaluation of the key market trends, including technological developments and regional market activities.
  • Regulatory Environment Analysis: In-depth examination of the emerging legislation and regulatory environment across core markets and geographical regions.
  • Market Readiness Index: Juniper's assessment of the comparative attraction and operating environment of 20 key countries, with each market considered against a mix of supplier-side and buyer-side considerations.
  • OEM Player Analysis & Ranking: Juniper's analysis and ranking of leading OEMs includes Google, Daimler, Volvo, Tesla and 7 others, based on individual company performance and progress toward delivering autonomous vehicles to the mass market.
  • Tier 1 Supplier Analysis: Analyses and provides recommendations for leading Tier 1 specialist suppliers including:
    • Autoliv
    • Robert Bosch GmbH
    • Continental
    • Denso
    • Aptiv
    • ZF Friedrichshafen
  • Technology & Impact Appraisal: Investigates key technological advances and critical challenges hindering market adoption.
  • Segment Analysis: Market segment analysis and forecast breakdown for Level 1, Level 2/3 and Level 4/5 classifications, split by:
    • Consumer Vehicles
    • Commercial Vehicles
  • Interviews: With leading players across the automotive value chain, including:
    • Almotiv
    • Xesol Innovation
    • Clear Motion
    • eyeSight Tech
    • Vulog
    • Valens Automotive
    • NAVYA
    • Aeye
    • Traffic Tech Services
    • Here
    • Savari
    • Canatu
  • Juniper Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment, together with our Leaderboard positioning matrix for 12 emerging technology vendors.
  • Benchmark Industry Forecasts: Provided for the size and growth of AV & ADAS market, including adoption and revenues.

Key Questions

  • 1. What are the challenges which may inhibit the development of the autonomous vehicle market?
  • 2. What are the new business models and how are stakeholders planning to monetise the self-driving car industry?
  • 3. What is the current state of the market and how will it evolve over the next 10 years?
  • 4. What is the future evolution model for critical autonomous vehicle technologies?
  • 5. What is the projected market demand for ADAS-enabled vehicles?

Companies Referenced

  • Interviewed: Aeye, AIMotive, Canatu, ClearMotion, eyeSight Tech, HERE Technologies, NAVYA, Savari, TTS (Traffic Technology Services), Valens Automotive, Vulog, Xesol Innovation.
  • Profiled: Aeye, AIMotive, Canatu, ClearMotion, eyeSight Tech, HERE Technologies, NAVYA, Savari, TTS (Traffic Technology Services), Valens Automotive, Vulog, Xesol Innovation.
  • Case Studied: AIMotive, HERE Technologies, Valens Automotive.
  • Mentioned: 3M, ABI (Association of British Insurers), Advanced Scientific Concepts, Aisin Seiki Co, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Aptiv, Argo AI, ASCar, ATS (Advanced Telematic Systems), Audi, Autoliv, Aviva, Baidu, Bakulin Motors Group, BMW, Bose, BYD, C2C-CC (Car 2 Car Communication Consortium), Cadillac, Car2Go, CN Innovations, CNI (National Industry Council), Continental, Cruise, Crunchbase, Cypress Semiconductor, DAF Trucks, Daimler, Denso, Deutsche Telekom, Direct Line, Display Solution, DuPont, Elektrobit, Emirates Airlines, emov, Ericsson, Euro NCAP (European New Car Assessment Programme), Europcar, Evo Car Share, Fiat Chrysler America, Ford, FreshLinc, Geely, GIC, GM (General Motors), Google, GreenMobility, Harman, Haylion Technologies, Hosiden, Hyundai, ICTC (Information and Communications Technology Council), Innoviz, KAIST, Kia, Land Transport Authority, LeddarTech, LG, Lyft, Mapbox, Mercedes-Benz, Mevo, Micello, Microchip, Microsoft, Mitsubishi, Mobileye, Naver Labs, NAVINFO, NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) , Nissan, Nokia, NTT Docomo, nuTonomy, NVIDIA, OKI, Osram, Princeton Lightwave, PSA, Qualcomm Technologies, Quanergy Systems, RAC, REKA, Renault, Renova, Robert Bosch GmbH, SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers), SAIC Motor Corp, Samsung, Scale API, Scania, SEAT, Sidecar, Siemens, Silvercar, Sixt, SK Telecom, Sony, Splitting Fares, Strobe, Synaptics, Tata, Tech Mahindra, Tencent, Tesla, Toyota, Traffic Safety Corporation, Transdev, Uber, Urbano, Valeo, Valhalla, Velodyne, Veoneer, Volvo, VTT Technical Research Center, VW, Waymo, Yandex, YoungFast, ZF Friedrichshafen.

Data & Interactive Forecast

The new ‘Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS ’ forecast suite includes:

  • Country-level data splits for 8 key regions and country forecasts for:
    • Brazil
    • Canada
    • China
    • France
    • Germany
    • Mexico
    • UK
    • US
  • Segment splits by:
    • Commercial & Consumer ADAS-Enabled Vehicles
    • Commercial & Consumer Autonomous Vehicles
  • Autonomous Vehicles forecast split by classification:
    • Level 1
    • Level 2/3
    • Level 4/5
  • What-If Analysis tool allowing user the ability to manipulate Juniper's data for 6 different metrics.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of more than 50 tables and over 9,000 datapoints.

Juniper Research's highly granular IFxls (Interactive Excels) enable clients to manipulate Juniper's forecast data and charts to test their own assumptions using the Interactive Scenario Tool; and compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase clients' ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Deep Dive Strategy & Competition

1. AV & ADAS: Market Introduction

  • 1.1. Introduction
    • Figure 1.1: Uber SUV Involved in Fatal Accident in Arizona, US
    • 1.1.1. Research Scope & Focus
  • 1.2. Definition & Classification
    • 1.2.1. AV Classification
      • Table 1.2: Autonomous Vehicle Classifications According to the NHTSA & SAE
    • 1.2.2. Types of Autonomous Vehicles
      • Figure 1.3: Scania Trucks Operating in a Platoon
  • 1.3. Key Market Trends Driving the AV Market
    • 1.3.1. Stricter Driver Safety Regulation
    • 1.3.2. Environmental Pressures
    • 1.3.3. Technological Developments The Rise of the Smart Car
      • i. Connected Cars
      • ii. EVs
      • iii. Other Technologies
  • 1.4. AV Future & Challenges: Roadmap to Fully Autonomous Vehicles
    • 1.4.1. Juniper Roadmap
      • Figure 1.4: Juniper Roadmap for Fully Autonomous Vehicles
    • 1.4.2. Roadmap Analysis
    • 1.4.3. Key Issues & Challenges
  • 1.5. AV Market Activities: Regional Analysis
    • 1.5.1. North America
      • Figure 1.5: Waymo Self-driving Taxi
    • 1.5.2. West Europe
      • Figure 1.6: WEpod, Currently Being Tested at Wageningen University, Netherlands
    • 1.5.3. Asia-Pacific
      • Case Study: AIMotive
      • Case Study: Valens Automotive

2. Autonomous Vehicles: Regulatory Analysis & Market Readiness Index

  • 2.1. AV Regulatory Environment Analysis: Regional Status
    • 2.1.1. US
    • 2.1.2. Europe
    • 2.1.3. Asia
  • 2.2. Implications of Autonomous Vehicles: Value Chain Impact Analysis
    • 2.2.1. ADAS Regulatory Environment Analysis
      • i. Europe
      • ii. US
    • 2.2.2. V2V (Vehicle-to-Vehicle)
      • i. US
        • Figure 2.1: V2V Communications
      • ii. Europe
    • 2.2.3. Commercial Vehicles & Regulation
  • 2.3. Market Readiness Index: AV Country Analysis
    • 2.3.1. Introduction
      • Table 2.2: Criteria & Weightings for the AV Market Analysis
      • Table 2.3: Scoring Summary
      • Figure 2.4: Key Country Readiness Index for Autonomous Vehicles 2018
    • 2.3.2. Country Analysis
      • i. Analysis: Singapore
      • ii. Analysis: US
      • iii. Analysis: UK
      • iv. Analysis: South Korea
      • v. Analysis: Japan
      • vi. Analysis: Netherlands
      • vii. Analysis: Germany
      • viii. Analysis: France
      • ix. Analysis: Malaysia
      • x. Analysis China
      • xi. Analysis: Sweden
      • xii. Analysis: Poland
      • xiii. Analysis: Finland
      • xiv. Analysis Canada
      • xv. Analysis: UAE
      • xvi. Analysis: India
      • xvii. Analysis: Mexico
      • xviii. Analysis: Russia
      • xix. Analysis: Brazil

3. Autonomous Vehicles: Technology Analysis

  • 3.1. Enabling Technologies
    • 3.1.1. Digital Mapping
    • 3.1.2. Open Mapping Platform
      • Case Study: HERE Technologies
    • 3.1.3. Short Range 2-Way Communications
    • 3.1.4. Cellular Communications
    • 3.1.5. Wi-Fi Direct
    • 3.1.6. Computing Platform
    • 3.1.7. Software Algorithms
  • 3.2. Overview of ADAS Systems
    • 3.2.1. FCA (Front Collision Avoidance)
    • 3.2.2. LDW/LKA/BSD (Lane Departure Warning/Lane Keep Assist/Blind Spot Detection)
    • 3.2.3. DMS (Driver Monitoring Systems)
      • Figure 3.1: Seeing Machines in Action
    • 3.2.4. Park Assist Systems
    • 3.2.5. Night Vision Systems
  • 3.3. ADAS Enabling Technologies & Limitations
    • 3.3.1. Radar Sensors
    • 3.3.2. Camera Sensors
    • 3.3.3. LiDAR Sensors
    • 3.3.4. ToF (Time-of-Flight) Depth Sensors
    • 3.3.5. Electronic Braking, Throttle & Steering
    • 3.3.6. Challenges & Limitations
  • 3.4. ADAS Aftermarket
  • 3.5. Semi-Autonomous Vehicles

4. Value Chain Analysis & Leaderboard

  • 4.1. AV: OEM Player Analysis & Ranking
    • 4.1.1. Introduction & Ranking Summary
      • i. Introduction & Summary
      • ii. Ranking Summary
        • Table 4.1: Ranking OEMs Progress on Delivering an Autonomous Vehicle
    • 4.1.2. Key Player Analysis
      • i. Audi
      • ii. Apple
      • iii. BMW
      • iv. Mercedes-Benz
      • v. GM (General Motors)
      • vi. Toyota
      • vii. Volvo Cars
      • viii. Google
      • ix. Ford
      • x. Nissan
      • xi. Tesla
  • 4.2. AV & ADAS: Key Tier 1 Vendors Driving Market
    • 4.2.1. Introduction
    • 4.2.2. Autoliv
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Strategic Developments
    • 4.2.3. Robert Bosch GmbH
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Strategic Developments
    • 4.2.4. Continental
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Strategic Developments
    • 4.2.5. Denso
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Strategic Developments
    • 4.2.6. Aptiv
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Strategic Developments
    • 4.2.7. ZF Friedrichshafen
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Strategic Developments
  • 4.3. ADAS & AV: Technology Vendor Leaderboard
    • 4.3.1. Vendor Assessment Methodology
      • Table 4.2: ADAS & AV Juniper Leaderboard Vendor Positioning Criteria
    • 4.3.2. Leaderboard: Capability Assessment & Market Positioning
      • Table 4.3: Juniper Leaderboard Capability & Capacity vs Product & Position
      • Figure 4.4: Juniper Leaderboard for ADAS & AV
    • 4.3.3. Vendor Groupings
      • i. Established Leaders
      • ii. Leading Challengers
    • 4.3.4. Limitations and Interpretation
  • 4.4. AV & ADAS Industry Movers & Shakers
  • 4.5. Technology Vendor Profiles
    • 4.5.1. Almotive
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.5: AImotive Test Vehicle
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.2. Xesol Innovation
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.2. Xesol Innovation
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.6: Xesol Innovation's Solution Scanning the Road Ahead
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.3. ClearMotion
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.7: Clearmotion Raises the Car's Chassis Above Bumps in the Road
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.4. eyeSight Technologies
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.8: Gesture-based Control from eyeSight
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.5. Vulog
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.9: Vulog Car Tracking
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.6. Valens
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.7. NAVYA
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.10: The NAVYA Pod
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.8. AEye
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.11: The AE 100
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.9. TTS (Traffic Technology Services)
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.10. HERE Technologies
      • i. Corporate Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.11. Savari
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
        • Figure 4.12: Savari's Network
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.12. Canatu
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High Level View of Offerings
        • Figure 4.13: Canatu's Vision of the Cockpit of the Future
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities

Deep Dive Data & Forecasting

1. AV & ADAS: Market Introduction & Summary

  • 1.1. Introduction
    • Figure 1.1: Uber SUV Involved in Fatal Accident in Arizona, US
  • 1.2. Definition & Classification
    • 1.2.1. AV Classification
      • Table 1.2: Autonomous Vehicle Classifications According to the NHTSA & SAE
    • 1.2.2. Types of Autonomous Vehicles
      • Figure 1.3: Scania Trucks operating in a platoon

2. Market Summary & Key Takeaways

  • 2.1. Introduction
  • 2.2. AV & ADAS Market Summary (L1, L2/L3, L4/L5)
    • 2.2.1. New L1, L2/3, L4/L5 Vehicles
      • Figure & Table 2.1: Total Number of New L1, L2/L3, & L4/L5 Autonomous & ADAS Vehicles (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 2.2.2. New L1, L2/L3, L4/L5 ADAS & AV Revenues
      • Figure & Table 2.2: Total Revenues from New L1, L2/L3, & L4/L5 Autonomous & ADAS Installed Vehicles ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 2.2.3. AV & ADAS Consumer Vehicles Market L1, L2/L3, L4/L5
      • Figure & Table 2.3: Number of New Consumer Autonomous & ADAS Vehicles L1, L2/L3, L4/L5 (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
      • Figure & Table 2.4: Revenues from Consumer Autonomous & ADAS Vehicles L1, L2/L3, L4/L5 ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 2.2.4. AV & ADAS Commercial Vehicles Market - L1, L2/L3, L4/L5
      • Figure & Table 2.5: Number of New Consumer Autonomous & ADAS Vehicles L1, L2/L3, L4/L5 (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
      • Figure & Table 2.6: Revenues from New Commercial Autonomous & ADAS Vehicles L1, L2/L3, L4/L5 ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026

3. AV & ADAS: Forecast Methodology

  • 3.1. AV & ADAS: Market Sizing & Assumptions
    • 3.1.1. ADAS Forecast Methodology & Assumptions
      • Figure 3.1: ADAS Market Forecast Methodology
    • 3.1.2. AV Forecast Methodology
    • 3.1.3. ASP Assumptions
    • 3.1.4. Aftermarket ADAS
      • Figure 3.2: AV Level 2/3 & L4 Market Forecast Methodology

4. ADAS: Market Forecast Summary & Key Takeaways

  • 4.1. Introduction & Market Drivers
    • i. ADAS Sensor Combinations
    • ii. Front-facing Applications
    • iii. AEB City & AEB Interurban
    • iv. LDW/LKA/BSD (Lane Departure Warning/Lane Keep Assist/Blind Spot Detection)
    • v. Rear-facing Applications
    • vi. Driver-Facing Applications
    • vii. Sensor Deployment
    • viii. Radar
    • ix. Cameras
    • x. Infrared Cameras
    • xi. LiDAR
    • xii. Sensor Fusion & Integrated Multi-sensor ADAS Systems
  • 4.2. Consumer Segment Market Forecasts
    • 4.2.1. Consumer ADAS Vehicles - L1
      • Figure & Table 4.1: Number of New L1 Consumer Vehicles with ADAS Installed Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 4.2.2. Consumer ADAS Vehicle Revenue - L1
      • Figure & Table 4.2: Revenues from New L1 Consumer Vehicles with ADAS Installed Per Annum ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 4.2.3. Regional Analysis & Outlook
      • i. West Europe
      • ii. North America
      • iii. Rest of Asia Pacific/Far East & China
  • 4.3. Commercial Segment Market Forecasts
    • 4.3.1. Commercial ADAS Vehicles - L1
      • Figure & Table 4.3: Number of New L1 Commercial Vehicles with ADAS Installed Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 4.3.2. Commercial Vehicle ADAS Revenue - L1
      • Figure & Table 4.4: Revenues from New L1 Commercial Vehicles with ADAS Installed Per Annum ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026

5. AV: Market Forecast Summary & Key Takeaways

  • 5.1. Introduction
    • 5.1.1. Sensor Selection
    • 5.1.2. Trials & Tests of Consumer AVs
      • i. North America
      • ii. West Europe
      • iii. Rest of Asia Pacific/Far East & China
  • 5.2. Consumer Segment Market Forecasts
    • 5.2.1. Consumer Autonomous Vehicles - L2/L3
      • Figure & Table 5.1: Number of New Consumer Autonomous Vehicles L2/L3 Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 5.2.2. Consumer Autonomous Vehicles Revenue - L2/L3
      • Figure & Table 5.2: Consumer Autonomous Vehicles L2/L3 Revenue Growth Per Annum ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 5.2.3. Consumer Autonomous Vehicles - L4/L5
      • Figure& Table 5.3: Number of New Consumer Autonomous Vehicles L4/L5 Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 5.2.4. Consumer Autonomous Vehicles Revenue - L4/L5
      • Figure & Table 5.4: Consumer Autonomous Vehicles L4/L5 Revenue Growth Per Annum ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2020-2025
  • 5.3. Commercial Segment Market Forecasts
    • 5.3.1. Trials & Tests of Commercial AVs
    • 5.3.2. Commercial Autonomous Vehicles - L2/L3/L4/L5
      • Figure & Table 5.5: Number of New Commercial Autonomous Vehicles L2/L3/L4/L5 Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2021-2026
    • 5.3.3. Commercial Autonomous Vehicles Revenue - L2/L3/L4/L5
      • Figure & Table 5.6: Commercial Autonomous Vehicles L2/L3/L4/L5 Revenue Growth Per Annum ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2020-2025
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