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Market Research Report
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996053

In-game Gambling & Loot Boxes: Legislation, Market Evolution & Forecasts 2021-2025

Published: | Juniper Research Ltd | Delivery time: 1-2 business days

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In-game Gambling & Loot Boxes: Legislation, Market Evolution & Forecasts 2021-2025
Published: March 9, 2021
Juniper Research Ltd
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
  • Description
  • Table of Contents

Juniper Research's “In-game Gambling & Loot Boxes” research is a thorough analysis of the ways in which these increasingly important aspects of in-game monetisation are changing in response to consumer behaviour and legislative trends. It provides an in-depth discussion on these products, as well as how the in-game monetisation market is changing around them.

The report provides extensive forecasts and analysis of the future outlook for this key market segment; examining the strategies that leading video games publishers and developers are using to respond to the changing landscape.

The research includes:

  • Market Trends & Opportunities (PDF)
  • 5-Year Market Sizing & Forecast Spreadsheet (Excel)
  • 12 months' Access to harvest Online Data Platform

KEY FEATURES

  • Market Dynamics: Extensive examination of different approaches to loot boxes and skins gambling; highlighting different features that are becoming part of popular games and how this fits into the overall in-game monetisation landscape.
  • Legislation Assessment: Analysis of existing and forthcoming legislation on loot boxes and skins gambling across several key markets, including:
    • Belgium
    • Brazil
    • Japan
    • Canada
    • China
    • The EU
    • The Netherlands
    • South Korea
    • UK
    • US
  • 5-Year Forecasts - Loot boxes & skins gambling market prospects analysis, together with 5-year forecasts for key metrics, including loot box revenue, adoption and purchase rates across mobile, PC and console games platforms.
  • harvest Digital Markets Intelligence Centre: Visualises all the data in easy to use and exportable graphs, tables, and charts, and features continuous data updates for 12 months.

KEY QUESTIONS

  • 1. What impact will forthcoming legislation have on the in-game gambling market?
  • 2. Where will the biggest market for this sector be?
  • 3. How can video games publishers make the most of loot boxes?
  • 4. What other market developments will affect the sector?
  • 5. What revenue will the loot boxes market generate over the next 5 years?

COMPANIES REFERENCED

  • Case Studied: Blizzard Entertainment, CSGO Lounge, Electronic Arts, Epic Games, Rollbit.
  • Mentioned: 2K Games , Apple, ARJEL (National Gaming Authority), Belgian Gaming Commission, Bet365, Bethesda, Big Fish Games , Bungie, CS:GO Diamonds , CSGO Lotto, Danish Regulatory Authority , DCMS (Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport) , DGCCRF (General Directorate for Competition Policy, Consumer Affairs and Fraud Control) , DMarket, Dota2wage.com, ESA (Entertainment Software Association), eSportsPools, ESRB (Entertainment Software Ratings Board), Ethereum, Facebook, FIFA, Google, House of Commons , House of Lords Gambling Committee , IGDA (International Game Developers Association) , Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission, Kantan Games, King, Konami, Korea Association of Game Industry, MGM Grand, Microsoft, National Health Service , Netherlands Gaming Authority , Netmarble, Nexon, NextFloor, NFL, Nintendo, Norway's Gaming Authority , Norwegian Tipping , Perfect World, Psyonix, PUBG Corp, Reddit, Riot Games, Sony, South Korean Fair Trade Commission, South Korean Games Ratings Board , Steam, SteamLoto, Take-Two, the TIGA (Independent Game Developers' Association), Twitch, Ubisoft, UK Gambling Commission , University of British Columbia, University of York , Valve, Warner Bros Interactive Entertainment, Washington State Gambling Commission , Wedbush Securities, YouTube, Zhengtu Network, Zynga.

DATA & INTERACTIVE FORECAST

Juniper Research's “In-Game Gambling & Loot Boxes” forecast suite includes:

  • Loot box data for:
    • Number of loot box purchasers
    • Average number of loot boxes purchased per user
    • Average revenue per loot box
    • Loot box revenue per annum
  • For each of the following platforms:
    • Console
    • Mobile
    • PC
  • Skins gambling data, including:
    • Number of people involved in skins trading
    • Number of skins listed for trade
    • Value of skins listed for trade
    • Number of skins listed for gambling
    • Value of skins gambled
  • Each forecast is split by 8 key regions, as well as 25 country-level data splits for:
    • Australia
    • Brazil
    • Canada
    • China
    • Croatia
    • Denmark
    • France
    • Germany
    • India
    • Italy
    • Japan
    • Mexico
    • Netherlands
    • New Zealand
    • Norway
    • Poland
    • Portugal
    • Russia
    • Singapore
    • South Africa
    • South Korea
    • Spain
    • Sweden
    • UK
    • US
  • Interactive Scenario Tool allowing users to manipulate Juniper Research's data for 14 different metrics.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of 48 tables and more than 10,000 datapoints.

Juniper Research's highly granular Interactive Forecast Excels (IFxls) enable clients to manipulate Juniper Research's forecast data and charts to test their own assumptions by using the Interactive Scenario Tool, and compare select markets and sectors side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase clients' ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

Table of Contents

1. The In-game Gambling Market

  • 1.1 Introduction - The In-game Monetisation Landscape
    • i. The Evolution of In-game Monetisation in the Microtransactions Model
      • Figure 1.1: Call of Duty: Warzone - Call of Duty's F2P version
      • Figure 1.2: FIFA 21 Ultimate Team Packs
    • ii. Criticism of Loot Boxes and Links to Gambling
  • 1.2 Definitions & Scope
    • i. Loot Boxes
      • Figure 1.3: Overwatch Golden Loot Box via Twitch Prime
    • ii. Skins Gambling
      • Figure 1.4: CS:GO Nuke Collection Skins
    • iii. Social Casino Games & Apps
      • Figure 1.5: Big Fish Casino
    • iv. Scope of the Research
  • 1.3 Loot Boxes and In-game Gambling as a Component of Video Game Monetisation
    • 1.3.1 Evolution of Loot Boxes
      • i. Origins in Asian Massively Multiplayer Online Role-playing Games
        • Figure 1.6: Figure 1.7: Zhengtu Online
      • ii. Adoption by Valve and Use in Packaged Mainstream Games
        • Figure 1.8: Mass Effect 3 Recruit Pack
      • iii. GaaS (Games-as-a-Service) and the Rise of Loot Boxes
        • Figure 1.9: Overwatch Loot Box
      • iv. Oversaturation and Criticism of 'Pay-to-Win'
      • v. Moves to Regulate Loot Boxes and Attempts to Self-regulate by Developers and Publishers
    • 1.3.2 Loot Boxes as a Form of Gambling?
      • i. Loot Box Design Expose Gamers to Random Chance Reward Systems
        • Figure 1.10: Overwatch Loot Box Percentages
      • ii. Loot Box Association with Problem Gambling
      • iii. Impact on Children
      • iv. Loot Boxes Remain Broadly Unregulated
      • v. Juniper Research's View
  • 1.4 In-game Monetisation Trends
    • 1.4.1 Loot Boxes Within the Overall Landscape of In-game Monetisation
      • i. Loot Boxes Part of a Wider Hybrid Monetisation Approach
        • Figure 1.11: Overwatch League Tokens
        • Figure 1.12: League of Legends Champions
        • Figure 1.13: Fortnite Battle Royale Cosmetic Microtransactions
        • Figure 1.14: PUBG Mobile Season 10 Royale Pass
    • 1.4.2 Loot Box Trends - Changing Use of Loot Boxes
      • i. Cosmetic-only Microtransactions
        • Figure 1.15: Valorant Glitchpop Skins
      • ii. A Greater Focus on Transparency
        • Figure 1.16: Overwatch Loot Box Drop Rates
      • iii. Shift to Battle Pass and Removal of Loot Boxes
        • Figure 1.17: Fortnite Battle Pass
      • iv. Loot Boxes Still Important to Video Game Monetisation
      • v. Juniper Research's View
    • 1.4.3 Social Casino Games
      • Figure 1.19: Big Fish Casino 'Lobby'
      • i. Key Differences to Real-money Gambling
        • Figure 1.20: Slotomania Initial Credit Offer to New Players
      • ii. Social Casino Games - A Gateway to Gambling?
      • iii. An Unregulated Industry
      • iv. Juniper Research's View

2. The Future of Loot Boxes

  • 2.1 Loot Boxes Development
    • Figure 2.1: Apex Legends Cosmetics
    • 2.1.1 Incentivisation and Presentation Loot Box Mechanisms
      • i. Gameplay Advantages
        • Case Study: EA Dynamic Difficulty
        • ii. Time-limited
          • Figure 2.2: Overwatch Lunar New Year Loot Box
          • Figure 2.3: World of Tanks Seasonal Loot Boxes
        • iii. Purely Cosmetic Items
        • iv. 'Near misses'
          • Figure 2.4: DOTA 2 Loot Box
        • v. Loot Boxes as Free Rewards
        • vi. Items can be 'Cashed Out'
        • vii. In-game Currency used to Purchase Loot Boxes
          • Figure 2.5: Fortnite: Save the World Loot Llamas
          • Case Study: Transparent Loot Boxes
        • viii. Virtual Gambling Machines
          • Figure 2.6: NBA2K20 Slot Machine
        • ix. Presentation
          • Figure 2.7: Hearthstone Loot Pack Opening
        • x. Juniper Research's View
  • 2.2 Key Legislative Trends
    • 2.2.1 Banning of Loot Boxes
      • i. Belgium
      • ii. The Netherlands
    • 2.2.2 Regulated Loot Boxes in Certain Ways
      • i. China
      • ii. South Korea
      • iii. Japan
    • 2.2.3 Investigating Further into the Issue
      • i. UK
      • ii. US
      • iii. EU
      • iv. Canada
      • v. Brazil
    • 2.2.4 Impact of Current and Potential Future Legislation on Loot Box Development
    • 2.2.5 Self-regulation by the Video Game Industry
      • i. Juniper Research's View

3. Skins Gambling & Platforms

  • 3.1 Skins Gambling Development
    • 3.1.1 Overview & Evolution of Skins Gambling
      • Figure 3.1: Steam Community Market
      • Figure 3.2: DOTA 2
    • 3.1.2 Expansion of Skins Gambling
      • i. Player-to-Player Trading to Improve Player Retention
    • 3.1.3 Criticism and Issues
      • Figure 3.3: CSGO Lotto
    • 3.1.4 Monetisation Models Used by Skins Gambling Providers
      • i. Games of Chance
        • Figure 3.4: Skins Gambling Roulette
        • Figure 3.5: Dota2Hunt Coinflip
      • ii. More Recent Monetisation Models
        • Figure 3.6: Rollbit's X-Roulette crash roulette game
        • Figure 3.7: CS:GO Live
      • iii. Development and Usage of Cryptocurrencies
      • iv. Blockchain & More Transparent Skins Gambling
      • v. Juniper Research's View
  • 3.2 Key Legislative Trends
    • 3.2.1 Governmental Action
      • i. Denmark
      • ii. Norway
      • iii. Belgium and the Netherlands
    • 3.2.2 Legal Action and Steam's API
    • 3.2.3 Challenges in Regulating Skins Gambling
    • 3.2.4 A Regulated Skins Gambling Market
      • i. Juniper Research's View

4. Lootboxes & In-Game Gambling Forecasts

  • 4.1 Forecast Methodologies
    • 4.1.1 Lootboxes
      • i. Forecast Assumptions
        • Figure 4.1: Loot Boxes Forecast Methodology
    • 4.1.2 Skins Gambling
      • i. Forecast Assumptions
        • Figure 4.2: Skins Gambling Forecast Methodology
  • 4.2 Loot Box Forecasts
    • 4.2.1 Number of Loot Box Users
      • Figure & Table 4.3: Number of Loot Box Users per annum (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2020-2025
    • 4.2.2 Number of Loot Boxes Purchased
      • Figure & Table 4.4: Number of Loot Boxes Purchased Across All Devices per annum (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2020-2025
    • 4.2.3 Loot Boxes Spend
      • Figure & Table 4.5: Total Spend on Loot Boxes Across all Devices ($m), Split by Key Regions, 2020-2025
  • 4.3 Skins Gambling Forecasts
    • 4.3.1 Users Engaging in Online Skins Trading
      • Figure & Table 4.6: Total Users Engaging in Skins Trading (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2020-2025
    • 4.3.2 Total Number of Skins Listed for Trade
      • Figure & Table 4.7: Total Skins Listed for Trade (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2020-2025
    • 4.3.3 Total Value of Skins Listed for Trading
      • Figure 4.8: Total Value of Skins Listed for Trade (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2020-2025
    • 4.3.4 Total Value of Skins Gambled
      • Figure & Table 4.9: Total Value of Skins Gambled ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2020-2025