The Canada thermal power market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 1% in the forecast period of 2020-2025. Factors such as increasing population and power consumption are resulting in the growth of the power demand. With growing power demand, new thermal power projects are being planned and constructed, which, in turn, is driving the market significantly. Nuclear and natural gas-based power plants are expected to witness significant growth in the coming years. On the other hand, phasing out of coal-based thermal plants and rising competition from renewables are some factors which are hindering the market growth.
- Canada has vast reserves of natural gas. With upcoming projects, natural gas plants are expected to witness significant growth during the forecast period.
- In 2018, Natural Resources Canada issued its small modular reactors (SMR) Roadmap, a plan for nuclear technology development based on SMRs. This is likely to create significant opportunities for the nuclear power plant operators and EPC companies in the near future.
- Nuclear power is expected to dominate the market during the forecast period.
Key Market Trends
Natural Gas Based Thermal Power to Witness Significant Growth
- Thermal power generation in Canada held a significant share primarily by coal, gas, and nuclear. In 2019, natural gas generated more than 69 TWh of electricity, and its share is expected to grow further during the forecast period.
- Genesee Generating Station is undergoing upgradation with units 4 and 5, which will use high-efficiency gas turbine technology and have a generation capacity of up to 1,060 megawatts. The project is expected to be completed by 2023 at the cost of USD 1.4 billion.
- Additionally, Cascade Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) Power Plant is also under construction phase, which is expected to be completed by 2022. With an investment of USD 1.12 billion, the plant will 900 MW to the grid.
- Also, Sundance 7 gas-fired powerplant is another major project, which is delayed from 2020 to 2022, will be a combined-cycle natural gas generation facility with a gross generation capacity of 856 MW.
- With advantages like low emissions in comparison to coal and fewer harms in comparison to nuclear, the market share of natural gas in power generation is likely to grow in the future at the highest rate.
Nuclear Energy to Dominate the Market
- With aging power plants, more refurbishment projects are being carried to extend the service lifetimes of nuclear fleets. This, in turn, is expected to drive the growth of the market during the forecast period.
- Darlington and Bruce nuclear units in Ontario are undergoing refurbishment, which will allow the nuclear plants to operate well beyond the mid-century. The Darlington refurbishment project is expected to be completed by 2026 and the Bruce project by 2033.
- In 2019, Canada generated around 100.5 TWh of electricity from nuclear power plants, accounting for approximately 15% of the total electricity generation mix. As of 2019, there are 19 operable reactors, mostly located in Ontario, with a combined capacity of 13,554 MWe.
- In December 2019, the provinces of New Brunswick and Saskatchewan agreed to collaborate with Ontario in advancing the development and deployment of SMRs to address climate change, regional energy demand, economic development, and research and innovation opportunities.
- With refurbishment programs and a current large share in power generation, nuclear energy is expected to continue its dominance during the forecast period.
The Canada thermal power market is moderately consolidated. Some of the major companies include SaskPower International Inc, Emera Inc, TransAlta Corporation, Ontario Power Generation Inc, and Northland Power Inc.
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