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Market Research Report

Light Duty Vehicle Electrification Overview - Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid EV, Plug-In Hybrid EV, Battery EV, and Fuel Cell EV Sales and Populations, 2019-2030

Published by Guidehouse Insights (formerly Navigant Research) Product code 934291
Published Content info 46 Pages; 50 Tables, Charts & Figures
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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Light Duty Vehicle Electrification Overview - Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid EV, Plug-In Hybrid EV, Battery EV, and Fuel Cell EV Sales and Populations, 2019-2030
Published: April 30, 2020 Content info: 46 Pages; 50 Tables, Charts & Figures
Description

Global sales of light duty (LD) EVs grew by nearly 1 million vehicles from 2018 to 2019, for a sales growth of nearly 25%. This success coupled with strong hybrid EV (HEV) sales growth led to positive growth in the EV market in 2019-albeit with some areas of the market slowing, such as plug-in EV (PEV) sales in North America. In 2020, the introduction of several new SUV and crossover PEV models in North America as well as additional 48 V mild-hybrid vehicles coming to market in Europe is expected to propel growth. The electric pickup truck market will likely continue increasing PEV sales in North America as these models come to market in 2021 and beyond.

Further into the future, continuous improvements to vehicle technology economics are anticipated to propel sales growth. These improvements include battery innovations and government transportation policies that incentivize adoption of low emission vehicles and low carbon fuels. Growing interest in carbon pricing and increased charging infrastructure investments are expected to also improve PEV economics.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides an outlook on LD EV sales and populations to 2030 and includes passenger cars and light trucks with the following powertrains: HEVs, plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), battery EVs (BEVs), and fuel cell EVs (FCVs). Forecasts are produced for three scenarios distinguished by varying assumptions (conservative, base, and aggressive) regarding future vehicle component costs, government incentives, and vehicle availability.

KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED:

  • How will the growth rates of EVs vary by region and country through 2030?
  • How many light duty EVs will be on the roads through 2030?
  • How are regulatory forces shaping the light duty EV markets?
  • What are the implications of likely changes to regulatory policies?
  • Which key factors are driving growth in the light duty EV market?
  • Which companies are leading the market in PHEV and BEV sales?
  • Which use cases are currently built-out for HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, and FCEVs?

WHO NEEDS THIS REPORT:

  • Automotive OEMs
  • EV component manufacturers and suppliers
  • PEV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community
Table of Contents
Product Code: MO-LDV-20

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2. Scope
  • 1.3. Market Forecasts

2.Technology Issues

  • 2.1. LDV Electrification Technologies
    • 2.1.1. EVs
      • 2.1.1.1. HEVs
      • 2.1.1.2. PEVs
      • 2.1.1.3. FCVs
    • 2.1.2. Batteries
    • 2.1.3. E-Motors
    • 2.1.4. Regenerative Braking
    • 2.1.5. Mild-Hybrid Vehicles and Stop-Start Technology

3.Market Issues

  • 3.1. Current Events
  • 3.2. Market Drivers
    • 3.2.1. Global Transportation Emission Policies
      • 3.2.1.1. North America
      • 3.2.1.2. Europe
      • 3.2.1.3. China
  • 3.3. Market Challenges
    • 3.3.1. Infrastructure
      • 3.3.1.1. Regulatory Structures
      • 3.3.1.2. Infrastructure Challenges for FCVs
    • 3.3.2. Technology and Powertrain Economics
    • 3.3.3 Awareness
    • 3.3.4. EV Availability

4.Key Industry Players

  • 4.1. Landscape
  • 4.2. Competitive Advantages
    • 4.2.1. Mobility Programs
    • 4.2.2. Developing Charging Point Networks & Charging Infrastructure
    • 4.2.3 Battery Swapping and Energy Storage
  • 4.3. Competitors
    • 4.3.1 BYTON
    • 4.3.2 Lucid Motors
    • 4.3.3. NIO
    • 4.3.4. Rivian
    • 4.3.5. SERES

5.Market Forecasts

  • 5.1. Scope
  • 5.2. Methodology
  • 5.3. LDV Market
  • 5.4. EV Sales
  • 5.5. PEV Sales
  • 5.6. Non-PEV Sales
  • 5.7. Conservative and Aggressive Scenarios
  • 5.8. Conclusions and Recommendations

6.Acronym and Abbreviation List

7.Table of Contents

8.Table of Charts and Figures

9.Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

LIST OF CHARTS AND FIGURES

  • Historic and Forecast LD EV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast EV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast EV Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast FCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • LD EV Population Gap Between Forecast Scenarios, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Geographic Dimensions
  • Model Methodology

LIST OF TABLES

  • Policies Benefiting EVs in Major Markets
  • LDV Powertrain Cost Comparison
  • LDV Battery Pack Price by Vehicle Powertrain, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Sample of EV Incentives, Select Countries
  • Sample of Upcoming Electric Pickup Trucks
  • Sample of Upcoming Electric SUVs and Crossovers
  • FCV Models and Country Availability
  • LD EV Use Cases by Powertrain Type and Market Maturity
  • LD EV Companies by Product/Service Offering
  • Historic and Forecast LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast LDV Population by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast EV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast FCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast EV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast HEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast PHEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast BEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast FCV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast EV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast FCV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast EV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast HEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast PHEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast BEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast FCV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast EV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast FCV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast EV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast HEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast PHEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast BEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Historic and Forecast FCV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
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