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Market Research Report

Southeast Asia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2018 - 2027)

Published by Northeast Group, LLC Product code 268625
Published Content info 199 Pages + executive summary presentation + dataset
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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Southeast Asia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2018 - 2027)
Published: September 4, 2018 Content info: 199 Pages + executive summary presentation + dataset
Description

The Southeast Asian smart grid infrastructure market has developed more slowly than previously anticipated, but a handful of regional leaders are likely to ensure growth over the decade.

Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia are either currently conducting or preparing for largescale advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) rollouts, setting a model for regional neighbors to follow. Their leadership is especially important as the region lacks some of the most typical drivers of smart metering and other smart grid segments. With some exceptions, T&D losses are relatively low for an emerging market region, nor are electricity prices or consumption sufficiently high to serve as a leading business case driver.

Regulations that either mandate or encourage smart grid infrastructure buildout could be necessary for the market to reach its potential, and these are now becoming better developed. Current deployments are being driven within the wider context of national drives for cleaner energy portfolios and energy efficiency improvement. Smart city plans factor heavily into these visions, with nearly every country in the region having developed smart city projects, with varying degrees of investment.

Indonesia presents by far the largest market opportunity at nearly 60 million residential electricity customers, but will only begin to develop widespread smart grid projects at the tail end of the forecast period. Thailand and Vietnam, each about a third the size of the Indonesian market, represent the second and third largest market opportunities. Each will also develop relatively late, with Thailand aiming for a nationwide AMI rollout by 2036, and Vietnam having only drawn up very rough smart grid roadmaps to date. In Malaysia, the nation's largest utility TNB recently began an 8.3 millionmeter rollout, which combined with smart city projects in Kuala Lumpur, ensures that it will remain a regional leader, along with Singapore and Thailand. Other countries so far have less developed smart grid markets, but international assistance could improve the outlook. Prominent International vendors are already active, and the region is likely to be a major destination for Chinese and Indian vendors in particular due to the offer of lower-cost AMI hardware. Falling costs could be essential to market growth, as cost concerns have slowed projects across the region. The combination of declining costs, improving regulatory frameworks, and the accumulation of regional experience with AMI deployments will lead Southeast Asia to provide some of the most promising emerging market opportunities in the global smart grid market.

Key questions answered in this study:

  • How large will the smart grid market be across Southeast Asia?
  • Which countries in the region have developed plans for national rollouts?
  • What recent regulatory developments will impact the market?
  • Which major international and local vendors are best positioned to supply the region?
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

i. Executive summary

1. What's New in 2018

2. Southeast Asia smart grid snapshot

  • 2.1. The region in comparison
  • 2.2. Regional drivers
  • 2.3. Regional challenges
  • 3. Regional market forecast

4. Singapore

  • 4.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 4.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 4.3. Market forecast
  • 4.4. Utility activity

5. Thailand

  • 5.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 5.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 5.3. Market forecast
  • 5.4. Utility activity

6. Malaysia

  • 6.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 6.2. Smart metering regulatory environment
  • 6.3. Market forecast
  • 6.4. Utility activity

7. Philippines

  • 7.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 7.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 7.3. Market forecast
  • 7.4. Utility activity

8. Indonesia

  • 8.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 8.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 8.3. Market forecast
  • 8.4. Utility activity

9. Vietnam

  • 9.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 9.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 9.3. Market forecast
  • 9.4. Utility activity

10. The rest of the region

  • 10.1. Cambodia
  • 10.2. Laos
  • 10.3. Myanmar

11. Vendor activity

  • 11.1. Domestic vendors
  • 11.2. International vendors active in smart grid in Southeast Asia
  • 11.3. Chinese vendors active in smart grid in Southeast Asia

12. Appendix

  • 12.1. Methodology
  • 12.2. Smart grid overview
  • 12.3. Global smart grid activity
  • 12.1. List of companies and acronyms covered in this report

List of Figures, Boxes and Tables

  • Southeast Asia smart grid: key takeaways
  • AMI deployments at top Southeast Asian distribution utilities
  • Market share of leading residential AMI meter hardware vendors
  • Market share of leading residential AMI meter hardware vendors
  • Market share of leading residential AMI meter communications vendors
  • Market share of leading residential AMI meter communications vendors
  • Figure 1.1: Recent and upcoming smart grid projects in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 1.2: Smart grid plans at TNB in Malaysia
  • Figure 1.3: Thailand Smart Grid Roadmap
  • Figure 1.4: Status of national AMI rollouts in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 1.5: MERALCO AMI deployment proposal
  • Table 1.1: AMI projects and plans in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 1.6: Existing smart grid regulatory activity in the Philippines
  • Table 1.2: Smart grid-related policy developments in Southeast Asia
  • Table 1.3: Battery storage and microgrid developments in Southeast Asia
  • Table 1.4: Other smart city developments
  • Figure 1.7: Comparison to 2016 forecast
  • Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
  • Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth (2016 - 2020)
  • Figure 2.5: Annual electricity demand growth in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 2.6: Renewable sources of energy in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 2.7: Renewable energy potential in 2030
  • Table 2.1: Smart grid market drivers and barriers in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 2.8: T&D losses in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 2.9: 10-year added cost per kWh of smart metering in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 2.10: Average smart grid regulatory scores in emerging markets
  • Figure 3.1: Southeast Asia AMI penetration rate
  • Figure 3.2: AMI penetration rate in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand
  • Figure 3.3: Southeast Asia cumulative smart grid forecast by country
  • Table 3.1: Southeast Asia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
  • Figure 3.4: Southeast Asia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 3.2: Southeast Asia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 3.5: Annual AMI deployments in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 3.6: AMI cost breakdown
  • Figure 3.7: Average cost per-endpoint
  • Figure 3.8: Cumulative AMI forecast by segment
  • Table 3.3: Cumulative AMI forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.9: Cumulative DA forecast by segment
  • Table 3.4: Cumulative DA forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.10: Cumulative HEM forecast by segment
  • Table 3.5: Cumulative HEM forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.11: Cumulative IT forecast by segment
  • Table 3.6: Cumulative IT forecast data by segment
  • Table 4.1: Singapore key data
  • Figure 4.1: Singapore AMI penetration rate
  • Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Singapore
  • Box 4.1: Political risk in Singapore
  • Figure 4.2: Singapore electricity price plans
  • Figure 4.3: Singapore cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 4.3: Singapore cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 4.4: Singapore cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 4.4: Singapore cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 4.5: Smart grid progress in Singapore
  • Table 4.5: Smart grid projects in Singapore
  • Table 5.1: Thailand key data
  • Figure 5.1: Thailand AMI penetration rate
  • Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Thailand
  • Figure 5.2: Electricity industry structure in Thailand
  • Box 5.1: Political risk in Thailand
  • Figure 5.3: Smart grid-related policies under consideration in Thailand
  • Figure 5.5: Thailand cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Table 5.3: Thailand cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Figure 5.6: Thailand cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 5.4: Thailand cumulative AMI forecast
  • Figure 5.7: PEA's Pattaya smart grid project
  • Table 5.5: Smart grid projects in Thailand
  • Table 6.1: Malaysia key data
  • Figure 6.1: Malaysia AMI penetration rate
  • Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Malaysia
  • Box 6.1: Political risk in Malaysia
  • Figure 6.2: Smart grid plans at TNB in Malaysia
  • Table 6.3: Feed-in tariff rates and installations in Malaysia
  • Figure 6.3: 5 strategic pillars of Malaysia's New Energy Policy
  • Figure 6.4: Malaysia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 6.4: Malaysia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 6.5: Malaysia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 6.5: Malaysia cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 6.6: Projected annual AMI deployments at TNB
  • Table 6.6: TNB pilot project details
  • Table 6.7: Smart grid projects in Malaysia
  • Table 7.1: Philippines key data
  • Figure 7.1: Philippines AMI penetration rate
  • Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in the Philippines
  • Box 7.1: Political risk in the Philippines
  • Figure 7.2: Existing smart grid regulatory activity in the Philippines
  • Figure 7.3: Philippines cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 7.3: Philippines cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 7.4: Philippines cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 7.4: Philippines cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 7.5: MERALCO AMI deployment proposal
  • Figure 7.6: MERALCO's initial smart grid pilot
  • Table 7.5: USTDA smart grid activity in Philippines
  • Table 8.1: Indonesia key data
  • Figure 8.1: Indonesia AMI penetration rate
  • Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Indonesia
  • Box 8.1: Political risk in Indonesia
  • Table 8.3: Subsidized electricity prices
  • Table 8.4: Feed-in tariffs in Indonesia
  • Figure 8.2: Indonesia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 8.5: Indonesia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 8.3: Indonesia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 8.6: Indonesia cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 8.6: Annual meter deployments in Indonesia
  • Table 9.1: Vietnam key data
  • Figure 9.1: Vietnam AMI penetration rate
  • Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Vietnam
  • Box 9.1: Political risk in Vietnam
  • Figure 9.2: Electricity regulatory structure in Vietnam
  • Table 9.3: Vietnam cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 9.3: Vietnam cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 9.4: Vietnam cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 9.4: Vietnam cumulative AMI forecast
  • Figure 9.5: Smart grid roadmap for EVN in Vietnam
  • Table 9.5: World Bank Distribution Efficiency Improvement Project
  • Figure 9.6: Multilateral funding for T&D investments in Vietnam
  • Figure 10.1: Electrification rates
  • Table 10.1: Cambodia key data
  • Figure 10.2: Cambodia AMI penetration rate
  • Figure 10.3: Electricity prices and GDP/capita in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 10.4: Cambodia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 10.2: Cambodia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 10.5: Cambodia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 10.3: Cambodia cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 10.4: Laos key data
  • Figure 10.6: Laos AMI penetration rate
  • Table 10.5: World Bank smart grid project in Laos
  • Figure 10.7: Laos cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 10.6: Laos cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 10.8: Laos cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 10.7: Laos cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 10.8: Myanmar key data
  • Figure 10.9: Myanmar AMI penetration rate
  • Figure 10.10: Highest global T&D loss rates
  • Table 10.9: Myanmar cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 10.11: Myanmar cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 10.10: Myanmar cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 10.12: Myanmar cumulative AMI forecast
  • Figure 11.1: Leading smart grid vendors in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 11.2: Market share of leading residential AMI meter hardware vendors
  • Figure 11.3: Market share of leading residential AMI meter hardware vendors
  • Figure 11.4: Market share of leading residential AMI meter communications
  • Figure 11.5: Market share of leading residential AMI meter communications
  • Table 11.1: Other leading smart grid vendors in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 11.6: International meter vendor presence in in Southeast Asia
  • Table 11.2: Vendor partnerships and activity
  • Figure 12.1: Northeast Group Smart Grid Forecasting Model
  • Figure 12.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in Southeast Asia
  • Table 12.1: Benefits of AMI in Southeast Asia
  • Table 12.2: Demand response options
  • Figure 12.3: ASEAN grid interconnections
  • Figure 12.4: Global smart grid activity
  • Figure 12.5: Cumulative smart grid investment from 2018 - 2027 by region
  • Figure 12.6: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region in 2027
  • Table 12.3: Global smart grid drivers and activity
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