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Market Research Report

Eurasia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2016 - 2026)

Published by Northeast Group, LLC Product code 311901
Published Content info 158 Pages plus PowerPoint & Dataset
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Eurasia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2016 - 2026)
Published: December 27, 2016 Content info: 158 Pages plus PowerPoint & Dataset
Description

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The Eurasia region has several drivers for smart grid investment, including an initial base of smart meters already present in the region. Driven by high non-technical losses and aided by affordable local vendors, utilities-particularly in Russia and Ukraine-have been ambitious in deploying smart meters, despite a lack of strong regulatory incentives. This bodes well for future deployments, as investment should continue even without strong regulatory drivers. This includes investment in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), distribution automation (DA), wide area measurement (WAM), home energy management (HEM), information technology (IT), and battery storage.


This in-depth study covers all twelve former Soviet countries not currently in the EU, which share several key characteristics. Until 1991, they were all part of the Soviet Union. As a result, they share not only an interconnected power grid but also a legacy of inefficient power usage across the residential, commercial, and especially industrial segments. On average, Eurasian countries have the highest energy intensity of any emerging market region in the world. Until recently, this had been ignored by governments eager to streamline economic growth, but in the past decade all major countries have passed some form of energy efficiency law. Smart grid infrastructure will play an important role in improving the energy efficiency of Eurasian economies-both through direct incentives such as revised tariffs and by making consumers more aware of their energy consumption.

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Electricity transmision and distribution (T&D) losses are elevated across Eurasia-almost all rating higher than the emerging market average, in some cases exceeding 20%. Smart meters are the most effective tool at reducing loss rates. They have already succeeded in bringing rates in Russia and Ukraine close to the emerging market average and multilateral financing programs are in place to reduce losses in other countries. In many cases, reducing losses can provide enough savings to cover the costs of smart metering investments, even without a strong regulatory framework.


Such a clear-cut business case is necessary for at least the next few years, as the political and regulatory environment in Eurasian countries is challenging. No Eurasian countries have meaningful smart grid regulations, and energy efficiency and renewable energy regulations are still in their early stages. Meanwhile, corruption remains extremely high, with almost all Eurasian countries falling in the bottom quartile of Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index. Political risk has only worsened since 2014 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This creates considerable risk throughout the region, all of which Russia considers under its sphere of influence. In some cases, economic sanctions present significant obstacles to smart grid activity for Western vendors in the near term.

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But ultimately, the conditions for smart grid development in Eurasia are strong enough to drive investment in all but the most challenging regulatory environments. Meanwhile, even in countries with poor economic and political climates, multilateral funding may be available to ensure secure financing, implement necessary technical standards, and overcome political risk hurdles-as is the current case in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. With poor energy efficiency, high non-technical losses, and knowledgeable local firms eager to partner with international smart grid vendors, the medium-term outlook for smart grid infrastructure in Eurasia is favorable. By 2026, the smart grid market in Eurasia will be comparable to that of Central & Eastern Europe, and trail only China, India, and Latin America among emerging market regions in total market size.


Key questions answered in this study:

  • Where are the newest smart grid announcements and deployments in Eurasia?
  • How large will the smart grid market be across 12 Eurasian countries?
  • How will political risk prove to be an obstacle in the Eurasia smart grid market?
  • How will smart grid projects be financed in the near to medium-term in Eurasia?
  • Who are the most active local and international vendors in the Eurasia market?
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

i. Executive Summary

  • i.i What's new in 2016?
  • i.ii Eurasia smart grid summary

ii. Methodology

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 What is smart grid?
  • 1.2 How is smart grid being used elsewhere in the world?

2. Eurasia smart grid snapshot

  • 2.1 The region in comparison
  • 2.2 Regional drivers
  • 2.3 Regional challenges

3. Regional market forecast

4. Russia

  • 4.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 4.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 4.3 Market forecast
  • 4.4 Utility activity

5. Uzbekistan

  • 5.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 5.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 5.3 Market forecast
  • 5.4 Utility activity

6. Ukraine

  • 6.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 6.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 6.3 Market forecast
  • 6.4 Utility activity

7. Kazakhstan

  • 7.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 7.3 Market forecast
  • 7.4 Utility activity

8. Kyrgyzstan

  • 8.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 8.3 Market forecast
  • 8.4 Utility activity

9. Other countries

  • 9.1 Eastern Europe: Belarus and Moldova
  • 9.2 Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
  • 9.3 Central Asia: Tajikistan and Turkmenistan

10. Vendor activity

  • 10.1 Eurasia-based vendors
  • 10.2 International vendors active in Eurasia

11. Appendix

  • 11.1 List of companies covered in this report
  • 11.2 List of acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

  • Eurasia smart grid: key takeaways
  • Notable smart grid activity in Eurasia since 2014
  • Smart meter deployments in Eurasia (2015-2016)
  • Distribution companies controlled by Rosseti (Russian Grids)
  • Multilateral bank funding
  • Ukraine renewable energy legislative developments
  • Comparison to 2014 forecast
  • Cumulative smart meter deployments in Eurasia (2016)
  • Major smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Energy intensity in Eurasia
  • Electricity T&D losses in Eurasia
  • Average smart grid regulatory scores in emerging markets
  • Ranking in TI's Corruption Perceptions Index 2015
  • Leading smart grid vendors based in Eurasia
  • Market share of leading vendors in Eurasia
  • Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast by country
  • Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
  • Northeast Group Smart Grid Forecasting Model
  • Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
  • Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in Eurasia
  • Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Eurasia
  • Table 1.2: Demand response options
  • Figure 1.3: Global smart grid activity
  • Figure 1.4: Cumulative AMI investment by region in 2016
  • Figure 1.5: Cumulative DA investment by region in 2016
  • Figure 1.6: Cumulative AMI investment by region from 2016-2026
  • Figure 1.7: Cumulative DA investment by region from 2016-2026
  • Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
  • Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth in Eurasia (2017-2021)
  • Figure 2.5: Electricity T&D losses in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.6: Energy intensity in Eurasia
  • Table 2.1: Reliability indicators in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.7: Solar and wind resources in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.8: Average regulatory scores in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.9: Per-capita income in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.10: Electricity prices in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.11: Ranking in TI's Corruption Perceptions Index 2015
  • Figure 3.1: Eurasia AMI penetration rate
  • Figure 3.2: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast by country
  • Table 3.1: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
  • Figure 3.3: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 3.2: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments in Eurasia
  • Figure 3.5: AMI cost breakdown
  • Figure 3.6: AMI forecast by segment
  • Table 3.3: AMI forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.7: DA forecast by segment
  • Table 3.4: DA forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.8: HEM forecast by segment
  • Table 3.5: HEM forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.9: IT forecast by segment
  • Table 3.6: IT forecast data by segment
  • Table 4.1: Russia key data
  • Figure 4.1: Russia AMI penetration rate
  • Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Russia
  • Box 4.1: Political risk in Russia
  • Figure 4.2: Distribution companies controlled by Rosseti (Russian Grids)
  • Figure 4.3: Federal regulations affecting smart grid in Russia
  • Box 4.2: Standards for T&D and metering devices in Russia
  • Figure 4.4: Russia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 4.3: Russia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 4.5: Russia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 4.4: Russia cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 4.6: Major smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Table 4.5: Russian Grids subsidiary deployments (2015-2016)
  • Table 5.1: Uzbekistan key data
  • Figure 5.1: Uzbekistan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Uzbekistan
  • Box 5.1: Political risk in Uzbekistan
  • Table 5.3: Uzbekistan multilateral funding programs for AMI metering
  • Figure 5.2: Multilateral funding programs for AMI metering in Uzbekistan
  • Figure 5.3: Uzbekistan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 5.4: Uzbekistan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 5.4: Uzbekistan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 5.5: Uzbekistan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 6.1: Ukraine key data
  • Figure 6.1: Ukraine AMI penetration rate
  • Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Ukraine
  • Box 6.1: Political risk in Ukraine
  • Figure 6.2: Non-traditional renewable energy generation in Ukraine
  • Table 6.3: Ukraine renewable energy legislative developments
  • Figure 6.3: Ukraine cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 6.4: Ukraine cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 6.4: Ukraine cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 6.5: Ukraine cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 7.1: Kazakhstan key data
  • Figure 7.1: Kazakhstan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Kazakhstan
  • Box 7.1: Political risk in Kazakhstan
  • Figure 7.2: Countries with highest per-capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 7.3: Kazakhstan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 7.3: Kazakhstan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 7.4: Kazakhstan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 7.4: Kazakhstan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 8.1: Kyrgyzstan key data
  • Figure 8.1: Kyrgyzstan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Kyrgyzstan
  • Box 8.1: Political risk in Kyrgyzstan
  • Figure 8.2: Highest official T&D loss rates
  • Figure 8.3: Kyrgyzstan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 8.3: Kyrgyzstan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 8.4: Kyrgyzstan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 8.4: Kyrgyzstan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 9.1: Other Eurasia key data
  • Figure 9.1: Other Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 9.2: Other Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 9.2: Other Eurasia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 9.3: Other Eurasia cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 10.1: Leading smart grid vendors in Eurasia
  • Figure 10.2: Market share of leading AMI vendors in Eurasia
  • Figure 10.3: ADD smart meter deployments in Eurasia
  • Table 10.1: Matritca smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Table 10.2: Other leading smart grid vendors in Eurasia
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