Sub-Saharan Africa Power Sector: Market Forecast (2019 - 2028)

Economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa is inextricably tied to the growth of its power sector. There are still 600 million people in the continent without access to electricity and therefore unable to contribute to or benefit from the expected gains of the next decade. Meanwhile, the billions of dollars of investment needed to reach these customers will provide an added boon to local economies and the modern infrastructure they provide will help the economies diversify. While the majority of the expected $141bn in investment over the next ten years will come from large-scale generation, there will also be leapfrogging opportunities with micro grids, modern transmission and distribution grids, advanced metering, and additional smart grid infrastructure. If successful Africa's power sector investment plans will be a direct source of economic development and an enabler of future growth.

Yet, while projections remain strong, a number of challenges could thwart these ambitious plans. Most notably, the utilities that will largely be responsible for carrying out power sector investment are almost universally in financial ruin, dependent on multilateral aid and high-interest debt to carry out their investments.

While foreign assistance may help cover the upfront costs of generation, most utilities are currently not in a position to maintain these investments and sustain growth. One of the keys to financial sustainability is efficient and modern metering - the cash register of the power sector. Many African utilities are under-metered and suffer high T&D and collection loss rates. Investment in prepaid - and especially AMI - meters will be critical to sustaining revenues. Smart grid infrastructure will be critical to sustaining Sub- Saharan Africa's rapid growth.

Key questions answered in this study:

• How large will the power sector market be across Sub-Saharan Africa?
• What factors will drive investment in power generation, T&D, and metering?
• Which African countries are implementing prepaid and advanced metering projects?
• What major international and local vendors are best positioned to supply the region?

Table of Contents

• i. Executive summary
• 1. What's new in 2019
• 2. Market forecast
• 3. South Africa
• 4. Nigeria
• 5. Kenya
• 6. Ghana
• 7. Ethiopia
• 8. Tanzania
• 9. Mozambique
• 10. Côte d'Ivoire
• 11. Angola
• 12. Senegal
• 13. Uganda
• 14. Cameroon
• 15. Zambia
• 16. Rwanda
• 17. Botswana
• 18. Namibia
• 19. Other countries
• 20. Vendor activity
• 21. Appendix

List of Figures and Tables

Sub-Saharan Africa power sector: Key takeaways

• Figure 1.1: Electrification growth in sub-Saharan Africa
• Figure 1.2: Forecast growth in electricity generation (2019 - 2028)
• Figure 1.3: Multilateral electrification goals
• Figure 1.4: Off-grid power will help drive smart infrastructure investment
• Figure 1.5: Urbanization and rural electrification rates
• Table 1.1: Off-grid power initiatives in Africa
• Figure 1.6: Sub-Saharan Africa mini-grid pipeline
• Figure 1.7: Interest coverage ratio of African utilities
• Figure 1.8: Debt-to-equity ratio of African utilities
• Figure 1.9: Tariffs compared to cost-reflective pricing
• Figure 1.10: T&D losses in Africa
• Figure 1.11: Prepaid meter penetration rates in Africa
• Figure 1.12: Countries with largest planned/contracted AMI deployments
• Table 1.2: Recent AMI and prepaid metering activity in Africa
• Figure 1.13: Losses and metering rates at Nigerian utilities
• Figure 1.14: Chinese metering vendors in Africa
• Figure 2.1: Annual power sector investment in Africa
• Table 2.1: Annual power sector investment in Africa
• Figure 2.2: Cumulative generation capacity in Africa
• Figure 2.3: Annual generation investment in Africa
• Figure 2.4: Cumulative T&D investment in Africa
• Figure 2.5: Annual T&D investment in Africa
• Figure 2.6: Cumulative metering investment in Africa
• Table 2.1: Cumulative metering investment in Africa
• Figure 2.7: AMI penetration rate in Africa
• Figure 2.8: Cumulative AMI investment in Africa
• Figure 3.1: South Africa generation forecast
• Table 3.1: South African municipal utility metering
• Figure 3.2: South Africa meter market forecast by segment
• Table 3.2: South Africa meter forecast data
• Figure 4.1: Nigeria generation forecast
• Figure 4.2: Metering status at Nigerian utilities
• Figure 4.3: Nigerian metering investment plans
• Table 4.1: Nigerian utility plans and goals
• Figure 4.4: Meters under contract for leading MAP providers (2019 - 2023)
• Table 4.2: Nigerian utility meter financing
• Figure 4.5: Nigeria meter market forecast by segment
• Table 4.3: Nigeria meter forecast data
• Figure 5.1: Kenya generation forecast
• Figure 5.2: KPLC revenue and prepaid metering
• Figure 5.3: Kenya meter market forecast by segment
• Table 5.1: Kenya meter forecast data
• Figure 6.1: Ghana generation forecast
• Figure 6.2: Ghana customers and sales growth
• Figure 6.3: Ghana meter market forecast by segment
• Table 6.1: Ghana meter forecast data
• Figure 7.1: Ethiopia generation forecast
• Figure 7.2: Ethiopia metering plans timeline
• Figure 7.3: Ethiopia meter market forecast by segment
• Table 7.1: Ethiopia meter forecast data
• Figure 8.1: Tanzania generation forecast
• Figure 8.2: Electrification growth in Tanzania
• Figure 8.3: Tanzania meter market forecast by segment
• Table 8.1 Tanzania meter forecast data
• Figure 9.1: Mozambique generation forecast
• Table 9.1: EDM strategic initiatives
• Figure 9.2: Mozambique meter market forecast by segment
• Table 9.2: Mozambique meter forecast data
• Figure 10.1: Côte d'Ivoire generation forecast
• Figure 10.2: Côte d'Ivoire power sector targets
• Figure 10.3: Côte d'Ivoire meter market forecast by segment
• Table 10.1: Côte d'Ivoire meter forecast data
• Figure 11.1: Angola generation forecast
• Figure 11.2: Electrification in Angola
• Figure 11.3: Angola meter market forecast by segment
• Table 11.1: Angola meter forecast data
• Figure 12.1: Senegal generation forecast
• Figure 12.2: Recent SENELEC meter deployments
• Figure 12.3: Senegal meter market forecast by segment
• Table 12.1: Senegal meter forecast data
• Figure 13.1: Uganda generation forecast
• Figure 13.2: UMEME customer and prepaid growth
• Figure 13.3: Uganda meter market forecast by segment
• Table 13.1: Uganda meter forecast data
• Figure 14.1: Cameroon generation forecast
• Figure 14.2: Electrification growth in Cameroon
• Figure 14.3: Cameroon meter market forecast by segment
• Table 14.1: Cameroon meter forecast data
• Figure 15.1: Zambia generation growth
• Figure 15.2: ZESCO prepaid metering
• Figure 15.3: Zambia meter market forecast by segment
• Table 15.1: Zambia meter forecast data
• Figure 16.1: Rwanda generation forecast
• Figure 16.2: Electrification growth in Rwanda
• Figure 16.3: Rwanda meter market forecast by segment
• Table 16.1: Rwanda meter forecast data
• Figure 17.1: Botswana generation forecast
• Figure 17.2: BPC customer and sales growth
• Figure 17.3: Botswana meter market forecast by segment
• Table 17.1: Botswana meter forecast data
• Figure 18.1: Namibia generation forecast
• Figure 18.2: Namibia RED prepaid metering
• Figure 18.3: Namibia meter market forecast by segment
• Table 18.1: Namibia meter forecast data
• Table 19.1: Meter market size of additional African countries
• Figure 19.1: Additional countries not considered in detail
• Table 20.1: Leading international and local vendors in Africa
• Figure 20.1: Leading international metering vendors in Africa
• Table 20.2: Leading off-grid power providers
• Figure 20.2: Meters under contract for MAP providers in Nigeria
• Figure 20.3: Chinese metering vendors in Africa
• Figure 20.4: El Sewedy activity in Africa