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Market Research Report

Nicholas Hall's New Paradigms for CHC 2019: Over the Horizon

Published by Nicholas Hall & Company Product code 735793
Published Content info 418 Pages
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Nicholas Hall's New Paradigms for CHC 2019: Over the Horizon
Published: August 7, 2019 Content info: 418 Pages
Description

Why buy this report?

"In my usual forthright manner I explain the plain truth, what I think will work, what won't work and (sometimes) what I don't know. The emphasis is on actionable strategies. And to make that realistic, every global licence has a dedicated 2 hour Webinar to explain key learnings and how it will affect the subscriber's business prospects, with an option for a full one-day Forensics to go into more depth. I will conduct these Webinars and Forensics in person, just as have written every word that appears in the report, supported by a talented team of internal and external researchers."

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Looking over the Horizon

  • 15 Infinity Zones
  • Forecasts for the mainstream retail sector
  • Best Case
  • Worst Case
  • Model 1 (DtC) vs 2 (OTx)

2. CHC Market - Situation Report

  • 2014-18 (and a little further back)
  • What happened in 2018
  • North America
  • Europe
  • Japan
  • Australasia

3. Emerging Markets

  • Overview
  • BRICITS
  • 2nd tier
  • The new 3rd tier

4. Healthcare Trends

  • Upturn in some illnesses and conditions
  • Allergy (and allergy-associated asthma)
  • Obesity and diabetes
  • Autism Spectrum Disorders
  • Attention Deficit / Hyperactivity Disorder
  • Medical provision
  • How governments aim to reduce the healthcare "burden"
  • Big Pharma: Does it have a future in Consumer Healthcare
  • Why are pharma players exiting consumer healthcare?

5. Engaging with the Consumer

  • Demographics
  • Strepsils / Strefen - carving a niche as severe sore throat specialist
  • With less time, convenience is key for consumers
  • A rapidly growing middle class
  • The Ageing Consumer
  • Women vs Men
  • Is there a gender gap?
  • Defining the women's CHC market
  • Unmet needs: opportunities for successful switch
  • Building female franchises
  • Eve - dynamic ibuprofen brand with simple selling point
  • What about women's heart health?
  • "Femtech" potential
  • What about Men?
  • Defining the men's CHC market
  • Unmet needs: opportunities for successful switch and geographic expansion
  • Neutrogena - intelligent expansion via light masks and devices
  • Prevention & Lifestyle

6. How to Innovate (at last!)

  • Why CHC isn't innovating
  • Which new entries are the game-changers?
  • Innovation zones: delivery, devices, diagnostics
  • Innovation zones: new delivery systems
  • Innovation zones: medical devices for treatment, relief or prevention
  • What about smaller segments?
  • Innovation zones: diagnostics & monitoring
  • Thorne Research - premium VMS line moving into personalised nutrition

7. Regulation

  • The overall trend to deregulation and reregulation
  • Tighter regulation: aiming for improved safety
  • Addictive, dangerous and potentially fatal misuse
  • Children's medicines - going, going, gone, honey?
  • Supplements - regulated or not?
  • Medical devices - EU shows way to better regulation

8. Rx-to-OTC Switch

  • Why switch?
  • Switch models
  • US vs ROW: Can switch be profitable only in USA?
  • EU's Centralised Procedure
  • Recent switches: what went right / what went wrong?
  • Voltaren - leading topical analgesic thanks to strong identity and NPD
  • What's coming down the pipeline?

9. Cannabis

  • Regulatory
  • Other notable markets
  • Who are the cannabis industry leaders?

10. Sexual Health

  • Contraception
  • Oral contraceptives
  • Emergency contraception
  • Condoms
  • Vaginal rings
  • Spermicides
  • Diaphragms
  • Male contraceptive pills and gels
  • Prenatal VMS
  • Pregnancy tests
  • Fertility lubricants
  • FemTech
  • Fertility and birth control apps
  • Ovulation and fertility kits & monitors
  • Leading and latest devices
  • Erectile dysfunction
  • Generic competition increasing

11. Diabesity

  • Obesity
  • The market for weight loss drugs continues to be flat
  • OTC weight loss launches 2017-19
  • Fat binders, carb blockers & appetite suppressants
  • Meal replacements regaining prominence
  • Probiotics for weight loss
  • Limited evidence for many weight loss supplements
  • Weight loss apps, trackers & wearables
  • Diabetes
  • OTC market for diabetes care
  • Diabetes innovation
  • VMS options for diabetes have potential
  • Meal replacements and emerging ingredients
  • Eye care for diabetics

12. Health through Digestion

  • Probiotics
  • Probiotics market today (1): The markets, players and brands
  • Probiotics market today (2): The focus is on gut health
  • OMNi-BiOTiC - diverse European probiotics range
  • Food intolerance
  • Lactose intolerance
  • Other intolerances
  • Nutraceuticals
  • 12. Health through Digestion (cont.)
  • Rising investment in nutraceuticals & nutritionals
  • Foods making health claims in Japan
  • Nutraceuticals & nutritionals expanding fast in Asia
  • CH marketers must contend with food players in this sphere

13. Go Green

  • Herbal & natural products
  • "Pure" single-ingredient H&N supplements
  • Natural supplements for lifestyle
  • Burt's Bees - beeswax beauty brand boosted by natural heritage
  • Natural topical analgesics
  • Natural cough remedies
  • Zarbee's - honey-based cough remedy successfully diversified
  • Innovation
  • Immunity & detox
  • Immunity
  • Myriad other supplements for immunity
  • Detox
  • Hangover remedies

14. Sleep, Mood & Stress

  • Sleep disorders
  • Overview
  • OTCs & supplements
  • Recent developments
  • ZzzQuil - US diphenhydramine leader expands into herbal & naturals
  • Switch
  • Mental health, mood & stress
  • The next global epidemic
  • Products for mental health, mood & stress
  • Innovations
  • CBD - the hottest new medicine in mental health
  • Probiotics: the gastrointestinal tract is the "second brain"

15. Cosmeceuticals

  • Fortified cosmetics
  • Aesthetic treatments
  • Retinoids
  • Cannabis-infused skincare
  • Cosmeceutical supplements / beauty nutraceuticals

16. Distribution

  • Why Pharmacy Point-of-Care?
  • Treatments that benefit from PPoC
  • The US in-store clinics model
  • And elsewhere...
  • GSL
  • Self-selection in France, Italy & other countries
  • Dealing with powerful chains - the Five Squeezes
  • Private label
  • Retail Category Management - bringing order out of retail chaos
  • Retail Category Management - the facts
  • Shopper insights
  • Category Captains
  • Is RCM only for Model 1 distribution?
  • Network / Multi-Level Marketing
  • Amway
  • Appendix 1: Key pharmacy chains
  • Appendix 2: Chain pharmacies by region (Americas, Europe, Asia)
  • Appendix 3: Pharmacy chains / groups
  • Appendix 4: Pharmacy chains in China
  • Appendix 5: Pharmacy buying groups and franchises
  • Appendix 6: Suitcase trade (daigou) in China

17. The Digital Revolution

  • GSK's digital / e-Commerce strategy
  • Consumer influences (and influencers)
  • The accelerating trend to greening
  • Digital advertising
  • Successful digital campaigns
  • Sensodyne - "Best in Class" Amazon Case Study
  • Successful apps
  • e-Commerce
  • Olly - Unilever acquires most dynamic brand in US VMS market
  • Blueberry-Eye - Successful direct sales eye health brand
  • Profiles of leading OTC brands on Amazon (USA)
  • Analysis of brands on Amazon across key categories
  • e-Commerce share of key brand sales (USA)
  • Advil - "Best in Class" Amazon Case Study
  • Tylenol - "Best in Class" Amazon Case Study
  • Vicks - "Best in Class" Amazon Case Study
  • Leading OTC brands (USA) - Online purchasing guidance
  • Alibaba Group
  • WebMD

18. Competition - Winners, Survivors & Losers

  • Why are the MNCs underperforming?
  • Key regional / local marketers
  • Top 20 players
  • GlaxoSmithKline
  • J&J
  • Sanofi
  • Bayer
  • Pfizer
  • RB
  • P&G
  • Taisho
  • Takeda
  • Novartis
  • China Resources
  • Otsuka
  • Teva
  • Mondelez
  • The Nature's Bounty Co
  • Prestige Consumer Healthcare
  • Mylan
  • Bausch Health
  • Abbott
  • Perrigo
  • Clorox
  • Nestlé
  • Unilever

19. M&A

  • GSK-Pfizer j-v
  • Are OTC acquisitions always a sideshow of Big Pharma?
  • Multiples
  • Does M&A work?

20. Managing Brands for Long-term Profit Growth

  • What makes a brand?
  • Building brand values, strengthening consumer loyalty
  • Is the OTC industry already generic?
  • Adding value, raising prices
  • Umbrella branding and line extensions - fewer SKUs, more focus
  • Bepanthen / Bepanthol - key franchise in Bayer's CHC portfolio
  • Is Mucinex over-extended?
  • OTC profitability
  • Building critical mass on a global scale

Index of Charts

  • Chart 1: Global all channels OTC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 2: Leading global subcategories by CAGR
  • Chart 3: Current forecast - Most Likely Case
  • Chart 4: Best Case Forecast
  • Chart 5: Worst Case Forecast
  • Chart 6: Global OTC sales 2014-18, plus forecasts
  • Chart 7: Global OTC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 8: Global OTC sales 1995-2018
  • Chart 9: Leading OTC markets 1995 vs 2018
  • Chart 10: Global OTC sales category split 2009-18
  • Chart 11: Global OTC regions by growth rate 2014-18
  • Chart 12: Global OTC growth countries 2014-18
  • Chart 13: Top 20 OTC markets 2018; MAT Q1 2019 sales
  • Chart 14: Top 20 OTC markets 2018 vs 2017
  • Chart 15: Top OTC categories by net contribution to growth 2018
  • Chart 16: North America OTC sales by country 2018
  • Chart 17: USA OTC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 18: North America leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 19: Western Europe OTC sales by country 2018
  • Chart 20: Western Europe OTC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 21: Western Europe leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 22: C&E Europe OTC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 23: C&E Europe leading marketers & brands 27
  • Chart 24: Japan OTC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 25: Japan leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 26: Australasia OTC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 27: Australasia leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 28: Emerging vs developed markets 2014-18
  • Chart 29: Emerging vs developed markets 1995 vs 2018
  • Chart 30: BRICITS markets 2018
  • Chart 31: BRICITS markets 2014-18
  • Chart 32: Brazil leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 33: Russia leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 34: India leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 35: China leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 36: Indonesia leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 37: Turkey leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 38: South Africa leading marketers & brands 2018
  • Chart 39: 2nd tier markets 2018
  • Chart 40: New 3rd tier markets 2018
  • Chart 41: USA ASD prevalence 2000-14 (per 1,000 children)
  • Chart 42: Healthcare expenditure as % of GDP in specific regions 2016
  • Chart 43: Expenditure on pharmaceuticals per capita in OECD markets 2015
  • Chart 44: Global leading pharma players 2018
  • Chart 45: UN estimates for world population by continent 2000 vs 2050
  • Chart 46: UN population forecasts
  • Chart 47: Notable allergy switches in USA
  • Chart 48: Strepsils / Strefen sales 2014-18
  • Chart 49: Leading Mexican brands available in USA 2018
  • Chart 50: Consumer expenditure, disposable income and OTC sales per capita in key Asian markets
  • Chart 51: Number and proportion of people aged 60+ worldwide in 2012, 2030 and
  • Chart 52: Life expectancies (born in 2019)
  • Chart 53: Centrum Silver leading markets 2018
  • Chart 54: Life expectancy at birth by gender mid-2018
  • Chart 55: Women's OTC market value
  • Chart 56: Eve sales 2014-18
  • Chart 57: Men's OTC market value
  • Chart 58: Neutrogena sales
  • Chart 59: Proportion of population overweight by country
  • Chart 60: Proportion of population aged 15+ who smoke by region
  • Chart 61: Top 25 OTC brands 2018
  • Chart 62: USA Rx-to-OTC Switch Pioneers
  • Chart 63: Voltaren sales 2014-18
  • Chart 64: Voltaren sales 1985-2018
  • Chart 65: Global cannabis consumer market
  • Chart 66: CBD and OTC medical cannabis sales
  • Chart 67: CBD supplements, topicals & vaping products sales forecasts by region 2023
  • Chart 68: OTC sexual health sales by category 2018
  • Chart 69: Women's contraceptive choices by method used
  • Chart 70: Global hormonal contraceptives market (by product type)
  • Chart 71: USA share of men and women aged 18 to 30 reporting no sex in past year 1989-2018
  • Chart 72: Global contraceptive devices market by device type 2013
  • Chart 73: Global leading pregnancy vitamin brands 2018
  • Chart 74: Global leading erectile dysfunction brands 2018
  • Chart 75: North America Erectile Dysfunction Drugs Market, by Product 2012-22
  • Chart 76: Global probiotics market by country 2018
  • Chart 77: Top 10 global OTC probiotics brands 2018
  • Chart 78: Probiotics sales & growth by segment 2017
  • Chart 79: OMNi-BiOTiC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 80: Global digestive enzymes sales 2014-18
  • Chart 81: Herbals & naturals sales in leading markets 2017
  • Chart 82: Herbals & naturals sales in leading markets by category 2017
  • Chart 83: Burt's Bees sales 2014-18
  • Chart 84: Zarbee's sales 2014-18
  • Chart 85: Immune supplements sales 2014-18
  • Chart 86: Global sedatives & sleep aids sales 2014-18
  • Chart 87: Global sedatives & sleep aids sales by market 2018
  • Chart 88: ZzzQuil sales 2014-18
  • Chart 89: Global vitamin D sales 2014-18, plus forecast
  • Chart 90: Pharmacy vs mass market by region 266
  • Chart 91: Amway sales (reported) 2014-18
  • Chart 92: Pharmacies by region
  • Chart 93: Key pharmacy chains / groups
  • Chart 94: Number of outlets of leading pharmacy chains in China
  • Chart 95: Annual revenue of leading pharmacy chains in China
  • Chart 96: Net profit of leading pharmacy chains in China
  • Chart 97: Global all channels OTC sales 2014-18
  • Chart 98: Leading markets internet & mail order OTC sales 2018
  • Chart 99: Olly sales 2014-18
  • Chart 100: Blueberry Eye customer numbers 2000-18
  • Chart 101: Advil retail / e-commerce brand sales 318
  • Chart 102: Tylenol retail / e-commerce brand sales 318
  • Chart 103: Vicks retail / e-commerce brand sales 318
  • Chart 104: Alibaba Group sales 2014-2018
  • Chart 105: Leading OTC players 2018
  • Chart 106: OTC growth players 2018
  • Chart 107: GSK sales 2014-18
  • Chart 108: GSK sales by category 2018
  • Chart 109: GSK sales by region 2018
  • Chart 110: GSK leading brands 2018
  • Chart 111: J&J sales 2014-18
  • Chart 112: J&J sales by category 2018
  • Chart 113: J&J sales by region 2018
  • Chart 114: J&J leading brands 2018
  • Chart 115: Sanofi sales 2014-18
  • Chart 116: Sanofi sales by category 2018
  • Chart 117: Sanofi sales by region 2018
  • Chart 118: Sanofi leading brands 2018
  • Chart 119: Bayer sales 2014-18
  • Chart 120: Bayer sales by category 2018
  • Chart 121: Bayer sales by region 2018
  • Chart 122: Bayer leading brands 2018
  • Chart 123: Pfizer sales 2014-18
  • Chart 124: Pfizer sales by category 2018
  • Chart 125: Pfizer sales by region 2018
  • Chart 126: Pfizer leading brands 2018
  • Chart 127: RB sales 2014-18
  • Chart 128: RB sales by category 2018
  • Chart 129: RB sales by region 2018
  • Chart 130: RB leading brands 2018
  • Chart 131: P&G sales 2014-18
  • Chart 132: P&G sales by category 2018
  • Chart 133: P&G sales by region 2018
  • Chart 134: P&G leading brands 2018
  • Chart 135: Taisho sales 2014-18
  • Chart 136: Taisho sales by category 2018
  • Chart 137: Taisho sales by region 2018
  • Chart 138: Taisho leading brands 2018
  • Chart 139: Takeda sales 2014-18
  • Chart 140: Takeda sales by category 2018
  • Chart 141: Takeda sales by region 2018
  • Chart 142: Takeda leading brands 2018
  • Chart 143: Novartis sales 2014-18
  • Chart 144: Novartis sales by category 2018
  • Chart 145: Novartis sales by region 2018
  • Chart 146: Novartis leading brands 2018
  • Chart 147: China Resources 999 sales 2014-18
  • Chart 148: China Resources 999 sales by category
  • Chart 149: China Resources 999 sales by region
  • Chart 150: China Resources 999 leading brands
  • Chart 151: Otsuka sales 2014-18
  • Chart 152: Otsuka sales by category 2018
  • Chart 153: Otsuka sales by region 2018
  • Chart 154: Otsuka leading brands 2018
  • Chart 155: Teva sales 2014-18
  • Chart 156: Teva sales by category 2018
  • Chart 157: Teva sales by region 2018
  • Chart 158: Teva leading brands 2018
  • Chart 159: Mondelez sales 2014-18
  • Chart 160: Mondelez sales by category 2018
  • Chart 161: Mondelez sales by region 2018
  • Chart 162: Mondelez leading brands 2018
  • Chart 163: The Nature's Bounty Co sales 2014-18
  • Chart 164: The Nature's Bounty Co sales by category 2018
  • Chart 165: The Nature's Bounty Co sales by region 2018
  • Chart 166: The Nature's Bounty Co leading brands 2018
  • Chart 167: Prestige CH sales 2014-18
  • Chart 168: Prestige CH sales by category 2018
  • Chart 169: Prestige CH sales by region 2018
  • Chart 170: Prestige CH leading brands 2018
  • Chart 171: Mylan sales 2014-18
  • Chart 172: Mylan sales by category 2018
  • Chart 173: Mylan sales by region 2018
  • Chart 174: Mylan leading brands 2018
  • Chart 175: Bausch Health sales 2014-18
  • Chart 176: Bausch Health sales by category 2018
  • Chart 177: Bausch Health sales by region 2018
  • Chart 178: Bausch Health leading brands 2018
  • Chart 179: Abbott sales 2014-18
  • Chart 180: Abbott sales by category 2018
  • Chart 181: Abbott sales by region 2018
  • Chart 182: Abbott leading brands 2018
  • Chart 183: Perrigo sales 2014-18
  • Chart 184: Perrigo sales by category 2018
  • Chart 185: Perrigo sales by region 2018
  • Chart 186: Perrigo leading brands 2018
  • Chart 187: Clorox sales 2014-18
  • Chart 188: Clorox leading brands 2018
  • Chart 189: Nestlé sales 2014-18
  • Chart 190: Nestlé leading brands 2018
  • Chart 191: Unilever sales 2014-18
  • Chart 192: Unilever leading brands 2018
  • Chart 193: GSK + Pfizer CH sales by category 2018
  • Chart 194: GSK + Pfizer CH growth vs global OTC market 2014-18
  • Chart 195: Key OTC acquisitions & multiples
  • Chart 196: World's Top 100 OTC brands 2018
  • Chart 197: Ratiopharm leading brands in Germany 2018
  • Chart 198: USA OTC adult allergy intra-nasal sprays: comparative launch prices
  • Chart 199: Top 10 global OTC antacid brands 2018
  • Chart 200: Available presentations of selected joint health brands
  • Chart 201: Bepanthen / Bepanthol sales 2014-18
  • Chart 202: Typical P&L for a registered medicines-focused company
  • Chart 203: Leading players operating margins
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