Consumer payment preferences are changing faster than ever before, migrating further toward electronic and card-based payments and away from paper-based payments such as cash and check. Hastening this migration, e-commerce and m-commerce are transforming the nature of consumer payments, tilting the balance further in favor of bill- and non-bill electronic and card-based payments; while P2P payments take digital shape. Cash and check are on the chopping block: Dropping from an 8.7% share in 2016, Packaged Facts expects cash to comprise 6.9% of consumer payment value in 2020, with declines also noted for check payments, with card-based and electronic payment picking up the slack.
These shifts in consumer payment preferences are shaping the value and volume of payments made, affecting market share for cash, debit cards, prepaid cards, credit cards, electronic payments such as online banking bill payment and bank account payment, and of course cash and check. This, in turn, has ramifications for industry participants drawing revenue or paying fees from the consumer payments food chain.
Addressing this shift, Packaged Facts' U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020 provides both trended consumer usage, behavior and attitude analysis on consumer payments and market sizes and forecasts through 2020 for key consumer payments instruments and methods.
The report emphasizes 2007-2016 survey trending of consumer payment usage and behavior, segmented by payment instrument and method: credit card, debit card, prepaid card, cash, check, online and mobile payments, and P2P and money transfers, with demographic analysis. The scope of analysis includes:
- Consumer credit card usage, monthly usage, engagement rate, monthly usage frequency, number of cards in wallet, card balances, and credit profile, with demographic analysis and usage by card association.
- Consumer debit card usage, monthly usage, engagement rate, and monthly usage frequency (cash withdrawal and purchases), with demographic analysis and usage by card association.
- Prepaid usage trends, reloadable vs. non-reloadable and by card association
- Cash usage analysis, including amounts carried, cash withdrawal amounts, cash preference by merchant vertical, small value payments, likelihood of cash being used as preferred payment instrument; degree of using cash to pay for goods and services; reasons for choosing cash over payment cards; cash preferences regarding purchases and bill payment, influence of cash preference on payment cards (by type of card), and influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness.
- Online and mobile payment preferences, including remote payments vs. in-person payments, online purchasing usage penetration, online and mobile purchase frequency trends, online payment method of choice, phone/mail payment usage methods, emerging and tradition payment methods used to pay bills, forms of payment used to pay bills, mobile wallet funding method, and mobile wallet payment entry method.
- P2P and money transfer usage methods, including usage of and interest in bank-driven P2P and instant P2P payment.
- Monthly payment volume and payment volume share, by payment instrument, including cash, check, debit card, credit card and online banking bill payment.
Market sizing and forecasting includes:
- 2012-2020 market size and forecast for U.S. noncash payment value and volume, segmented by debit cards, prepaid cards, credit cards, ACH payments, and checks.
- 2012-2020 market size and forecast for U.S. consumer payment value and volume, segmented by cash, debit card, credit card, check, electronic payments, and other payment types.
- 2012-2016 market size for general-purpose consumer payment card value, segmented by debit/prepaid card and credit card and by card association.
- 2012-2020 credit card and debit card usage forecasts
- 2012-2020 retail sales and ecommerce sales market size and forecast
- 2012 vs. 2015 market size for remote vs. in-person general-purpose payment card value
- 2012-2016 market size for consumer ACH payment value and volume, segmented by direct deposit payment, online banking bill payment; payments initiated by telephone and payments initiated online.