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Market Research Report

Communications and Intelligent Car - Markets, Standardization, Technologies

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Communications and Intelligent Car - Markets, Standardization, Technologies
Published: November 30, 2017 Content info: 179 Pages
Description

This report updates and extends the Practel Intelligent Car project.

Though never managing to accurately predict what each forthcoming generation of mobile technology should deliver to satisfy future users, the industry has nonetheless reached some consensus on the use cases for 5G communications; and among them - facilitating the use of mobile networks by connected or autonomous cars expected to figure large in 5G thinking. There is a common notion the industry is hoping that 5G will solve problems we don't have today, but those that could hold us back years in the future - and one of the best examples to such a statement is a driverless car.

-This particular report addresses the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) progress in reaching its ultimate goal - to make a car "intelligent" enough to safely drive without a human participation. It also updates the status of a driverless car development in connection with transition to the 5G era: the industry identified driverless cars as most viable form of ITS, dominating the roadways by 2035-2040 and sparking dramatic changes in vehicular travel. The report discusses the specifics of the 5G era as they are seen by the industry and academy at the present time with emphasis on what 5G technologies can bring to the driverless car.

-Such a car was considered by many as a scientists' dream only 10-15 years ago; now it is a reality and all predictions are that driverless cars hit the roads in 6-8 years; with commercial introduction already in 2017-2018. Fully developed driverless car needs support of communications systems evolving in the transition to 5G; and these two developments are interrelated - a driverless car becomes a 5G use case.

The report provides overview of the current status of the driverless car development, pictures the future steps, which the industry is planning, analyzes roadblocks, and emphasizes the importance of standardization - several organizations are working in this direction. The analysis concentrates on technological and marketing aspects of driverless cars and also on the status of the industry.

The survey of driverless cars projects currently underway is conducted; as well as the survey of related patents (2015-2017). Initial marketing statistics are developed.

-The detailed analysis of two important components of a driverless car: a) lidar (one of the main components of ADAS - Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and b) the communications gear - "connected car" - is performed.

A driverless car, for simplicity, may be described as a combination of a connected car and ADAS; and other parts. The ADAS important part is driverless car "eyes" - an instrument that can "see" surroundings and provide the information to the car for the analysis and taking relevant actions. One of most promising technologies that make cars "to see" is lidar, which is composed of laser and other parts. The report provides the detailed analysis of lidar technical and marketing characteristics and the survey of the industry.

The detailed analysis of connected cars specifics, standardization, technical characteristics and economics are presented in this report. The companies - contributors to the connected car market development - are identified and their portfolios are analyzed.

The report also emphasizes the importance of 5G mobile networking as a basis for driverless car ITS revolution. With "ultimate" ITS, it is expected that safety on the roads will be drastically improved and the society will be free from massive amount of injuries and deaths on the roads as well as from damages to the economy due to accidents and traffic jams.

The report is intended for technical and managerial staff involved in the advanced ITS development; and for specialists in communications technologies who support such a development.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Overview
  • 1.2 Report Goal
  • 1.3 Report Scope
  • 1.4 Research Methodology
  • 1.5 Target Audience

2.0 ITS: Roads to Perfection

  • 2.1 Response
  • 2.2 Structure
  • 2.3 ITS Key Technologies
  • 2.4 ITS Main Subsystems - Driverless Car Basis
  • 2.5 ITS Standardization: In Progress
    • 2.5.1 Overview
    • 2.5.2 ETSI - Europe
    • 2.5.3 U.S.
      • 2.5.3.1 General
      • 2.5.3.2 National Transportation Communications for ITS Protocol (NTCIP)
    • 2.5.4 International
      • 2.5.4.1 General
      • 2.5.4.2 ITU
    • 2.5.5 Summary
  • 2.6 ITS Applications
    • 2.6.1 V2V and V2I
    • 2.6.2 Intelligent Vehicles
  • 2.7 ITS Market Statistics
    • 2.7.1 General
    • 2.7.2 Estimate

3.0 Connected Car

  • 3.1 General - Definition
    • 3.1.1 Driving Forces
  • 3.2 Alternatives: Technologies
    • 3.2.1 Connected Car - 5.9 GHz DSRC
      • 3.2.1.1 General - History
        • 3.2.1.1.1 Recent Developments
      • 3.2.1.2 Efforts
      • 3.2.1.3 Place
      • 3.2.1.4 Structure and Protocols
      • 3.2.1.5 Requirements
      • 3.2.1.6 Milestones
      • 3.2.1.7 IEEE 802.11p
        • 3.2.1.7.1 General
        • 3.2.1.7.2 Objectives and Status
        • 3.2.1.7.3 ASTM Contributions
        • 3.2.1.7.4 Characteristics
      • 3.2.1.8 IEEE 1609
        • 3.2.1.8.1 General
        • 3.2.1.8.2 Overview
        • 3.2.1.8.3 IEEE 1609 in Use
      • 3.2.1.9 ETSI ITS-G5 - Major Features
      • 3.2.1.10 ISO and DSRC
      • 3.2.1.11 Components and Procedures
        • 3.2.1.11.1 Components
        • 3.2.1.11.2 Procedures
      • 3.2.1.12 Major Applications
        • 3.2.1.12.1 EPS
      • 3.2.1.13 Spectrum - DSRC
        • 3.2.1.13.1 Channels Designation
      • 3.2.1.14 Services
        • 3.2.1.14.1 Major Services
        • 3.2.1.14.2 Service Categories/QoS
        • 3.2.1.14.3 Service Requirements
      • 3.2.1.15 Summary: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics
      • 3.2.1.16 Market Segment and Industry
        • 3.2.1.16.1 Market Drivers
        • 3.2.1.16.2 Market Requirements
        • 3.2.1.16.3 Market Estimate - 5.9 GHz DSRC
      • 3.2.1.17 Industry
        • 3.2.1.17.1 Industry Coalition
        • 3.2.1.17.2 Recent Progress
        • 3.2.1.17.3 Vendors
          • Arada
          • Arinc (Rockwell Collins)
          • AutoTalks
          • Cohda Wireless
          • Delphi
          • Kapsch
          • NXP (Qualcomm-in process of acquisition)
          • Redpine Signals
          • Savari
          • Unex
    • 3.2.2 Connected Car - Cellular Technologies
      • 3.2.2.1 General
      • 3.2.2.2 3GPP Activities
        • 3.2.2.2.1 D2D Communications
        • 3.2.2.2.2 C-V2X Broadcast
        • 3.2.2.2.3 Performance Comparison
    • 3.2.3 Two Technologies - Two Opinions
      • 3.2.3.1 Governments
      • 3.2.3.2 Comparison
    • 3.2.4 Functional Technologies
      • 3.2.4.1 Over the Air (OTA) Updates
    • 3.2.5 Major Applications
    • 3.2.6 Policies
    • 3.2.7 Choices
    • 3.2.8 Network Requirements
    • 3.2.9 Market: Connected Car
    • 3.2.10 Industry
      • AT&T
      • Airbiquity Inc.
      • Apple
      • Broadcom
      • Ericsson
      • Ficosa
      • GM
      • Luxoft
      • MobilEye (Intel Company)
      • Nokia
      • Qualcomm
      • Sierra Wireless
      • Streetline
      • Verizon
      • Visteon
      • Wind River
      • Zubie
    • 3.2.11 Connected Car - Industry Groups and Alliances
      • 3.2.11.1 Open Automotive Alliance
      • 3.2.11.2 4G Venture Forum for Connected Cars
      • 3.2.11.3 Apple - iOS in the Car
    • 3.2.12 Standards and Regulations
      • 3.2.12.1 Joint Efforts
      • 3.2.12.2 EU
      • 3.2.12.3 U.S.
      • 3.2.12.4 WWW Consortium
      • 3.2.12.5 SAE
      • 3.2.12.6 GSMA Connected Car Forum
      • 3.2.12.7 Car Connectivity Consortium

4.0 5G Era

  • 4.1 5G Timetable (3GPP-ITU)
  • 4.2 Contributors
  • 4.3 5G Activity Survey
    • 4.3.1 Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) Ltd
    • 4.3.1.1 5G White Paper
    • 4.3.2 5G-PPP (5G Public Private Partnership)
    • 4.3.3 5G Americas
    • 4.3.4 GSMA
      • 4.3.4.1 GSMA Report
        • 4.3.4.1.1 Vision
        • 4.3.4.1.2 The Evolution: From 4G to 5G
        • 4.3.4.1.3 5G Use Cases
    • 4.3.5 Verizon 5G Technology Forum (TF)
    • 4.3.6 3GPP - New Radio (NR)

5.0 5G Technologies - Main Features

  • 5.1 Look into the Future
  • 5.2 Promising Directions
    • 5.2.1 Requirements
    • 5.2.2 Common Views
    • 5.2.2.1 5G Spectrum
    • 5.2.3 Future - Starts Today
  • 5.3 Issues
  • 5.4 Use Cases
    • 5.4.1 General -Characteristics
    • 5.4.2 Mobile Broadband
    • 5.4.3 Automotive
    • 5.4.4 Smart Society

6.0 Driverless Car - Developments

  • 6.1 Growing Together
  • 6.2 Directions and Issues
  • 6.3 ADAS
  • 6.4 Current Status - Legislation and Insurance
  • 6.5 Major Benefits
  • 6.6 Solutions
  • 6.7 Market Projections and Price
  • 6.8 Phases
    • 6.8.1 Required Characteristics
  • 6.9 Industry and R&D
    • 6.9.1 Automakers
      • 6.9.1.1 Audi
      • 6.9.1.2 Ford
      • 6.9.1.3 GM
      • 6.9.1.4 Nissan
      • 6.9.1.5 Daimler/Mercedes
      • 6.9.1.6 VW and AdaptIVe Consortium
      • 6.9.1.7 Volvo Cars
      • 6.9.1.8 Tesla Motors
      • 6.9.1.9 Other
    • 6.9.2 R&D and Competitors
      • 6.9.2.1 Alphabet/Google - ProjectX -Waymo
      • 6.9.2.2 Baidu
      • 6.9.2.3 DOTs
      • 6.9.2.4 Telecom Readiness: Driverless Car - 5G Communications
        • 6.9.2.4.1 Huawei
        • 6.9.2.4.2 Swisscom
      • 6.9.2.5 QNX
      • 6.9.2.6 Continental Automotive
      • 6.9.2.7 Nvidia
    • 6.9.3 Sturt-ups
      • 6.9.3.1 Uber
  • 6.10 Standardization
    • 6.10.1 NHTSA
    • 6.10.2 SAE International
    • 6.10.2.1 USA Preparedness
    • 6.10.3 IEEE
    • 6.10.4 Summary

7.0 Lidar

  • 7.1 General
    • 7.1.1 Typical Characteristics
  • 7.2 Structure and Functionalities
    • 7.2.1 Comparison with other Sensors
  • 7.3 Sensors and Bad Weather
  • 7.4 Industry
    • Aerostar
    • ASC
    • Ibeo (subsidiary of SICK AG)
    • Innoviz
    • Lasertel
    • Luminar
    • LeddarTech
    • Oryx Vision
    • Osram/Phantom Intelligence
    • Princeton Lightwave (acquired by GM in 2017)
    • Quanergy
    • TetraVue
    • TriLumina
    • Velodyne
    • Waymo (Alphabet)
  • 7.5 Benefits and Limitations
  • 7.6 Market

8.0 Conclusions

Attachment I: Driverless/Connected Car-related Patents Survey (2015-2017)

  • Figure 1: Wireless Communications: ITS Environment
  • Figure 2: Europe - Standardization Organizations
  • Figure 3: U.S. - ITS Standardizations Bodies
  • Figure 4: NTCIP Structure
  • Figure 5: International -Standardization Bodies - ITS
  • Figure 6: Estimate: Global Market - ITS Devices ($B)
  • Figure 7: Estimate: ITS WICT- Global Market ($B)
  • Figure 8: ITS Equipment Sales by Regions ($B)
  • Figure 9: Connected Car - Sensors
  • Figure 10: 5.9 GHz DSRC - Frequencies Allocation and Channelization
  • Figure 11: DSRC - Modified Spectrum Proposal
  • Figure 12: Industry Cooperation
  • Figure 13: ITS-5.9 GHz DSRC - Illustration
  • Figure 14: Communications Model: WAVE
  • Figure 15: 802.11p - Communications
  • Figure 16: Logical Flow - 5.9 GHz DSRC
  • Figure 17: Collision Detection/Avoidance System
  • Figure 18: Work Zone Warning
  • Figure 19: "Smart" Car
  • Figure 20: DSRC Worldwide - Spectrum Allocation
  • Figure 21: DSRC: Spectrum Allocation Details
  • Figure 22: Channel Assignment - 5.9 GHz DSRC
  • Figure 23: 5.9 GHz DSRC Transmission Characteristics and Channelization
  • Figure 24: Spectrum Details - Overlapping Wi-Fi
  • Figure 25: Major Categories-DSRC Services
  • Figure 26: 5.9 GHz DSRC Rate vs. Distance
  • Figure 27: 5.9 GHz DSRC Protocols - Summary
  • Figure 28: Estimate: 5.9 GHz DSRC Market Size ($B)
  • Figure 29: C-V2X Modes of Communications
  • Figure 30: 3GPP Schedule - D2D Communications
  • Figure 31: D2D Communications - Evolution
  • Figure 32: LTE ProSe Functions - Discovery and Communications
  • Figure 33: Connected Car Functionalities
  • Figure 34: Network Requirements - Connected Car Connectivity
  • Figure 35: Estimate - Global Market - Connected Car ($B)
  • Figure 36: Estimate: Global Automotive Wireless Market - Equipment Sales ($B)
  • Figure 37: Estimate - Global - Service Providers Revenue - Connected Car ($B)
  • Figure 38: Estimate - Global Sales - Connected Cars (Mil. Units)
  • Figure 39: Connected Car Penetration - U.S. (%)
  • Figure 40: Projections: Global Market V2X Technologies in Connected Vehicles ($B)
  • Figure 41: ITU-R Schedule and Process for IMT-2020
  • Figure 42: 3GPP - Tentative Timeline - 5G Standardization
  • Figure 43: Transition - Current View
  • Figure 44: 5G Spectrum
  • Figure 45: 5G Technologies Directions
  • Figure 46: 5G Use Cases-General
  • Figure 47: 5G Use Cases - Rate of Transmission and Latency
  • Figure 48: U.S. - Driverless Car Legislative Status (as of 2017)
  • Figure 49: Estimate: Percentage of Driverless Cars Sold - Global (%)
  • Figure 50: Evolution Path - Driverless Car
  • Figure 51: NHTSA Car Automation Levels
  • Figure 52: Lidar and Radar Properties
  • Figure 53: Estimate: Global Lidar Market ($B)
  • Figure 54: Estimate: Global Automotive Lidar Market ($B)
  • Table 1: ETSI G5 Channels
  • Table 2: Events Priorities
  • Table 3: Service Requirements
  • Table 4: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics
  • Table 5: LTE - D2D and Broadcast Modes - Performance Comparison
  • Table 6: Major Parameters - 5.9 GHz DSRC and C-V2X
  • Table 7: 5G Major Characteristics
  • Table 8: 5G Use Cases
  • Table 9: Lidar Characteristics - Automotive Applications
  • Table 10: Lidar and Video Camera Properties
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