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Market Research Report

Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Global Industry, Markets & Outlook

Published by Roskill Information Services Product code 192334
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Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Global Industry, Markets & Outlook
Published: July 11, 2017 Content info:
Description

Report includes:

  • Analysis report with forecast to 2026
  • Further background data available on request
  • Hard copy and electronic PDF of the report for up to five users
  • Access to the analysts for discussion around report content

Silicon and ferrosilicon are manufactured using broadly the same process and are physically similar, but are very divergent in terms of their applications. Silicon metal is used in the manufacture of aluminium alloys, silicones and polysilicon, whereas at least 90% of ferrosilicon is used in the production of iron and steel.

World production of both silicon metal and ferrosilicon is dominated by China. Historically, China's dominance of global output was greater for ferrosilicon than for silicon metal. However, this is no longer the case; in 2016, China accounted for roughly 65% of world production of both products. China's share of world silicon metal output has continued to follow a steadily increasing underlying trend, whilst the country's share of global ferrosilicon production is in decline. Chinese ferrosilicon production has been subject to increasingly stringent government controls on overcapacity and emissions, whilst the country's silicon metal capacity and output has been permitted to continue to increase. The extent to which this will remain the case over the coming decade is important for the wider sector.

In recent years, consumption growth for silicon metal has diverged significantly from that for ferrosilicon. The reason for this lies in the different end-use sectors which drive demand for these alloys. Global silicon metal consumption has grown at almost 6%py since 2010, supported by strong growth in all three of its main end use sectors (aluminium, silicones, and especially polysilicon). Consumption in the polysilicon sector has almost tripled since 2010, driven by the enormous growth of photovoltaic solar installations worldwide.

By contrast, global ferrosilicon consumption reached its peak in 2011, and has been on a declining path ever since. The fall in world demand was particularly substantial between 2014 and 2016. World ferrosilicon consumption in 2016 was 14% below its 2011 peak. The main reasons for declining ferrosilicon consumption are the slowdown in world crude steel production growth in recent years, a trend towards using less ferrosilicon per tonne of crude steel in China, and very slow growth in world output of iron castings, partly as a result of greater use of aluminium in place of cast iron in automobiles.

Prices for both silicon metal and ferrosilicon are primarily cost driven, and fairly inelastic to demand increases beyond short-term fluctuations, due to the huge global overcapacity in both industries. In recent years, production costs have trended down overall, but have been subject to a rebound in 2017 due to higher coal prices.

Roskill's Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Global Industry Markets and Outlook report covers every aspect of the silicon and ferrosilicon markets, analysing developments and trends while also providing ten-year forecasts for supply, demand and prices.

Roskill experts will answer your questions

  • Will China's dominance of consumption and production rise or fall over the next 10 years?
  • Will further control and regulation of Chinese output be a major driver of the market?
  • Will silicon metal consumption continue to grow at the strong growth rates of recent years?
  • Will the growth of the solar sector continue at current very high rates, and what will be the impact on silicon metal demand?
  • Will world ferrosilicon demand continue to follow a declining trend?
  • What is the outlook for prices and production costs?
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

  • 1.1 Silicon metal
  • 1.2 Ferrosilicon

2. World production of silicon metal and ferrosilicon

  • 2.1 Silicon metal production
    • 2.1.1 Silicon metal producing companies and capacities
  • 2.2 Ferrosilicon production
    • 2.2.1 Ferrosilicon producing companies and capacities
  • 2.3 New projects and future capacity

3. Consumption of silicon metal and ferrosilicon

  • 3.1 World consumption of silicon metal
  • 3.2 World consumption of ferrosilicon

4. International trade in silicon metal and ferrosilicon

  • 4.1 Anti-dumping duties, import and export taxes
  • 4.2 Trade in silicon metal
    • 4.2.1 Exports of silicon metal
    • 4.2.2 Imports of silicon metal
  • 4.3 International trade in high-purity silicon
    • 4.3.1 Exports of high-purity silicon
    • 4.3.2 Imports of high-purity silicon
  • 4.4 International trade in ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si
    • 4.4.1 Exports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si
    • 4.4.2 Imports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si
  • 4.5 International trade in ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si
    • 4.5.1 Exports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si
    • 4.5.2 Imports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si

5. Prices and marketing of silicon metal and ferrosilicon

  • 5.1 Silicon metal prices
    • 5.1.1 Historical price trends for silicon metal
  • 5.2 Ferrosilicon prices
    • 5.2.1 Historical price trends for ferrosilicon
  • 5.3 Outlook for prices of silicon metal and ferrosilicon

6. Outlook for silicon metal and ferrosilicon consumption

  • 6.1 Outlook for silicon metal consumption
    • 6.1.1 Outlook for consumption of silicon metal in aluminium alloys
    • 6.1.2 Outlook for consumption of silicon metal in silicones
    • 6.1.3 Outlook for consumption of silicon metal in polycrystalline silicon
  • 6.2 Outlook for ferrosilicon consumption
    • 6.2.1 Outlook for consumption of ferrosilicon in steel
    • 6.2.2 Outlook for consumption of ferrosilicon in cast iron
    • 6.2.3 Outlook for consumption of ferrosilicon in magnesium

List of Tables

  • Table 1: World: Production of silicon metal by country, 2007 to 2016
  • Table 2: World: Production of silicon metal by principal country, 2007 to 2016
  • Table 3: World: Silicon metal production capacity by country and company, 2017
  • Table 4: World: Production of ferrosilicon by country, 2007 to 2016
  • Table 5: World: Production of ferrosilicon by principal country, 2007 to 2016
  • Table 6: World: Ferrosilicon production capacity by country and company, 2017
  • Table 7: World: Planned new silicon metal and ferrosilicon capacity, 2017
  • Table 8: World: Apparent and real consumption of silicon metal, 2008 to 2016
  • Table 9: World: Apparent and real consumption of ferrosilicon, 2008 to 2016
  • Table 10: International trade in silicon and ferrosilicon, 2011 to 2016
  • Table 11: Reporting countries: Exports of silicon metal (Si content less than 99.99%), 2011 to 2016
  • Table 12: Reporting countries: Exports of silicon metal (Si content less than 99.99%), by country of destination, 2016
  • Table 13: Reporting countries: Imports of silicon metal (Si content less than 99.99%), 2011 to 2016
  • Table 14: Reporting countries: Imports of silicon metal (Si content less than 99.99%), by country of destination, 2016
  • Table 15: Reporting countries: Exports of high-purity silicon (Si content more than 99.99%), 2011 to 2016
  • Table 16: Reporting countries: Exports of high-purity silicon (Si content less than 99.99%), by country of destination, 2016
  • Table 17: Reporting countries: Imports of high-purity silicon (Si content more than 99.99%), 2011 to 2016
  • Table 18: Reporting countries: Imports of high-purity silicon (Si content less than 99.99%) by country of origin, 2016
  • Table 19: Reporting countries: Exports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si, 2011 to 2016
  • Table 20: Reporting countries: Exports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si by country of destination, 2016
  • Table 21: Reporting countries: Imports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si, 2011 to 2016
  • Table 22: Reporting countries: Imports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si by country of origin, 2016
  • Table 23: Reporting countries: Exports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si, 2011 to 2016
  • Table 24: Reporting countries: Exports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si by country of destination, 2016
  • Table 25: Reporting countries: Imports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si, 2011 to 2016
  • Table 26: Reporting countries: Imports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si by country of origin, 2016
  • Table 27: USA: Annual average silicon metal spot prices, 2000 to 2017
  • Table 28: Europe: Annual average silicon metal spot prices, 1999 to 2017
  • Table 29: China: Annual average silicon metal spot prices, 1999 to 2017
  • Table 30: USA: Annual average standard ferrosilicon spot prices, 2000 to 2017
  • Table 31: Europe: Annual average standard 75% ferrosilicon spot prices, 1999 to 2017
  • Table 32: China: Annual average standard 75% ferrosilicon spot prices, 2000 to 2017
  • Table 33: Actual and forecast silicon metal spot prices, 2000 to 2026
  • Table 34: Actual and forecast standard 75% ferrosilicon spot prices, 2000 to 2026
  • Table 35: Actual and forecast real consumption of silicon metal by end-use, 2000 to 2026
  • Table 36: Actual and forecast real consumption of ferrosilicon by end-use, 2000 to 2026
  • Table 37: Actual and forecast crude steel production, 2000 to 2026
  • Table 38: Actual and forecast stainless steel production, 2000 to 2026
  • Table 39: World: Forecast consumption of magnesium by end-use, 2015 to 2020

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: World: Silicon metal consumption by end-use, 2000 to 2026
  • Figure 2: World: Silicon metal production by major country, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 3: Actual and forecast silicon metal spot prices, 2000 to 2026
  • Figure 4: World: Ferrosilicon consumption by end-use, 2000 to 2026
  • Figure 5: World: Ferrosilicon production by major country, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 6: Actual and forecast standard 75% ferrosilicon spot prices, 2000 to 2026
  • Figure 7: World: Production of silicon metal and ferrosilicon, 2016
  • Figure 8: World: Silicon metal production, 1985 to 2016
  • Figure 9: World: Production of silicon metal, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 10: World excluding China: Production of silicon metal, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 11: World: Silicon metal production by principal country, 2016
  • Figure 12: Top-20 global silicon metal producers by capacity, 2017
  • Figure 13: World: Ferrosilicon production, 1985 to 2016
  • Figure 14: World: Ferrosilicon production, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 15: World excluding China: Ferrosilicon production, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 16: World: Ferrosilicon production by principal country, 2016
  • Figure 17: Top-20 global ferrosilicon producers by capacity, 2017
  • Figure 18: World: Silicon metal real consumption by end-use, 2016
  • Figure 19: World: Silicon metal real consumption by end-use, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 20: World: Apparent consumption of silicon metal by region compared with real consumption, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 21: World: Ferrosilicon real consumption by end-use, 2016
  • Figure 22: World: Ferrosilicon real consumption by end-use, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 23: World: Apparent consumption of ferrosilicon by region compared with real consumption, 2000 to 2016
  • Figure 24: Exports of silicon metal (Si content less than 99.99%) by five largest exporting countries, 2011 to 2016
  • Figure 25: World: Exports of silicon metal (Si content less than 99.99%) by principal countries, 2016
  • Figure 26: Imports of silicon metal (Si content less than 99.99%) by five largest importing countries, 2011 to 2016
  • Figure 27: World: Imports of silicon metal (Si content less than 99.99%) by principal countries, 2016
  • Figure 28: Exports of high-purity silicon (Si content more than 99.99%) by five largest exporting countries, 2011 to 2016
  • Figure 29: World: Exports of high-purity silicon (Si content more than 99.99%) by principal countries, 2016
  • Figure 30: Imports of high-purity silicon (Si content more than 99.99%) by five largest importing countries, 2011 to 2016
  • Figure 31: World: Imports of high-purity silicon (Si content more than 99.99%) by principal countries, 2016
  • Figure 32: Exports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si by five largest exporting countries, 2011 to 2016
  • Figure 33: World: Exports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si by principal countries, 2016
  • Figure 34: Imports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si by five largest importing countries, 2011 to 2016
  • Figure 35: World: Imports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% Si by principal countries, 2016
  • Figure 36: Exports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si by five largest exporting countries, 2011 to 2016
  • Figure 37: World: Exports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si by principal countries, 2016
  • Figure 38: Imports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si by five largest importing countries, 2011 to 2016
  • Figure 39: World: Imports of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% Si by principal countries, 2016
  • Figure 40: Ratio of silicon metal prices to ferrosilicon prices, 1995 to 2017
  • Figure 41: Comparison of silicon metal and polysilicon spot prices, January 2010 to May 2017
  • Figure 42: USA: Average prices for silicon metal, nominal and real terms, 1977 to 2017
  • Figure 43: Monthly average spot prices for silicon metal, 2008 to 2017
  • Figure 44: Average silicon metal prices, 2016
  • Figure 45: Silicon metal prices and average production costs, 2007 to 2017
  • Figure 46: USA: Average prices for standard 75% ferrosilicon, nominal and real terms, 1977 to 2017
  • Figure 47: Monthly average spot prices for standard 75% ferrosilicon, 2008 to 2017
  • Figure 48: Ferrosilicon prices and average production costs, 2007 to 2017
  • Figure 49: Correlation of silicon metal and ferrosilicon spot prices with energy coal prices, 2000 to 2017
  • Figure 50: Actual and future energy coal prices, 2011 to 2021
  • Figure 51: Year-on-year change in world aluminium production and silicon metal consumption in aluminium, 2005 to 2016
  • Figure 52: Estimated percentage of silicon consumption in aluminium deriving from scrap, 2004 to 2016
  • Figure 53: Average aluminium content of cars produced in Europe, 1990 to 2025
  • Figure 54: Permissable CO2 emissions from passenger cars, g CO2 per km, 2000 to 2025
  • Figure 55: Silicone consumption vs. GDP per capita (2015 data)
  • Figure 56: World: Actual and forecast new photovoltaic solar installations per year, 2000 to 2021
  • Figure 57: World: Forecast production of primary magnesium metal by country, 2020 versus 2015
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