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Market Research Report

Future of the Myanmarese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Published Content info 62 Pages
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Future of the Myanmarese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023
Published: July 4, 2018 Content info: 62 Pages
Description

Summary

Myanmar is currently in the midst of a political transformation as historically, Myanmar was ruled by the army, but is now being run by a civilian government. The country is therefore focusing on developing the country's economy and is in the process of cutting down on military expenditure, registering a CAGR of -20.43% during the historic period. However, over the forecast period, the country's defense expenditure is expected to stabilize and is anticipated to exhibit a growing trend over the forecast period.

Myanmar's defense budget is mainly driven by the country's involvement in the longest running civil war, ethnic conflicts and insurgencies, along with its increasing capital expenditure on the modernization of its navy and air force. The country's strained relationship with Bangladesh over the control of an abundance of oil and gas reserves is the reason behind the county's naval modernization plan. In addition, capital expenditure is expected to register a CAGR of 5.90% during the forecast period to reach US$574 million in 2023.

Key opportunities relating to the procurement of defense equipment in Myanmar are expected to be in the areas of submarines, multirole aircraft, and corvettes, among others. Consequently, the remaining budgets will be allocated to revenue expenditure, which constitutes personnel salaries, development programs for military personnel, and training and development.

The report "Future of the Myanmarese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023" offers detailed analysis of the defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

The Myanmar's defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Myanmarese defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porter's Five Force analysis of the Myanmarese defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Myanmarese defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Companies Mentioned - Myanmar Defense Industries (DI), Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), Bharat Dynamics Limited, Larsen & Tubro, Bharat Electronics Limited and Yakolev

Scope

The Myanmar defense budget is valued at US$975 million in 2018 and registered a CAGR of -20.43% during the historic period. The country is currently in the midst of a political transformation as historically, Myanmar was ruled by the army, but is now being run by a civilian government. The country is therefore focusing on developing the country's economy and is in the process of cutting down on military expenditure.

The country's capital expenditure allocation, which stood at an average of 42.4% during the historic period, is anticipated to increase significantly to an average of 45% during the forecast period. This increase is primarily due to the procurement of advanced defense equipment and a focus on increasing the capabilities of the country's indigenous defense industry.

The MoD expected to invets in submarines, multi-role aircraft, maritime surveillance and detection and corvettes, among others

Reasons to buy

This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Myanmar defense industry market trends for the coming five years

The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

A deep qualitative analysis of the Myanmar defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents
Product Code: DF0507MR

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 6

  • 1.1. What is this Report About? 6
  • 1.2. Definitions 6
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology 8
  • 1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 9

2. Executive Summary 10

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 12

  • 3.1. Current Market Scenario 13
    • 3.1.1. Military Fleet Size 13
    • 3.1.2. Procurement Programs 18
    • 3.1.3. The growth in insurgency movements will spur growth in defense spending over the forecast period 19
    • 3.1.4. Limited defense budget restricts procurement volumes and, as a result, market participants 19
  • 3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 20
    • 3.2.1. Myanmar defense expenditure is expected to grow at CAGR of 5.36% over 2019-2023 20
    • 3.2.2. Modernization of Myanmar Navy, ongoing insurgencies, and ethnic conflicts expected to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period 22
    • 3.2.3. Myanmar's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decrease marginally over the forecast period 24
  • 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 26
    • 3.3.1. Capital and revenue expenditure's share are anticipated to remain steady over forecast period 26
    • 3.3.2. Capital expenditure expected to increase at CAGR of 5.90% over the forecast period 28
    • 3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure set to increase over the forecast period 30
    • 3.3.4. Myanmar faces significant risk from insurgent groups and ethnic conflicts 32
    • 3.3.5. Myanmar falls under the "highly affected" terrorism category 33
    • 3.3.6. Myanmar has a terrorism index score of "5.0" 35
  • 3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 36
    • 3.4.1. Myanmar's defense budget expected to grow at a slower rate than its neighbors over the forecast period 36
    • 3.4.2. Myanmar's defense expenditure is low compared to other Asian countries 38
    • 3.4.3. Myanmar allocates a lower share of its GDP to defense compared to other Asian countries 39
  • 3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 40
    • 3.5.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023 40

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 41

  • 4.1. Import Market Dynamics 42
    • 4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to recover over the forecast period 42
    • 4.1.2. China and Russia emerged as the largest suppliers of arms 43
    • 4.1.3. Armored vehicles and aircraft dominate military hardware imports 44
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics 45
    • 4.2.1. Myanmar's domestic defense manufacturing is still in a nascent stage 45

5. Industry Dynamics 46

  • 5.1. Market Regulation 46
    • 5.1.1. Myanmar currently does not permit investments in its defense industry 46
  • 5.2. Market Entry Route 47
    • 5.2.1. Budget Process 47
    • 5.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 48
    • 5.2.3. Government-to-government contracts are the preferred market entry route for equipment manufacturers 48
    • 5.2.4. Closer military co-operation provides opportunities to enter the defense market 49

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 50

  • 6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 50
  • 6.2. Key Domestic Company 50

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 51

  • 7.1. Economic Performance 51
    • 7.1.1. GDP Per Capita 51
    • 7.1.2. GDP, Current Prices 52
    • 7.1.3. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion) 53
    • 7.1.4. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar 54
    • 7.1.5. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 55
    • 7.1.6. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 56
    • 7.1.7. Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP 57
    • 7.1.8. Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP 58
    • 7.1.9. Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ Bn) 59
    • 7.1.10. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 60
    • 7.1.11. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 61

8. Appendix 62

  • 8.1. About SDI 62
  • 8.2. Disclaimer 62

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Myanmar Land Forces Strength 13
  • Table 2: Myanmar Navy Strength 15
  • Table 3: Myanmar Air Force Strength 17
  • Table 4: Myanmar Ongoing Procurement Programs 18
  • Table 5: Myanmar Future Procurement Programs 18
  • Table 6: Myanmar Defense Expenditure (MMK Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 20
  • Table 7: Myanmar GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 24
  • Table 8: Myanmar Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 26
  • Table 9: Myanmar Defense Capital Expenditure (MMK Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 28
  • Table 10: Myanmar Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 30
  • Table 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 33
  • Table 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 36
  • Table 13: Top Myanmar's Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 40
  • Table 14: State/Region Budget Preparation Process 47
  • Table 15: Parliament Budget Reviewing Process 48
  • Table 16: Competitive Landscape of the Myanmar Defense Industry 50

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Myanmar Defense Expenditure (MMK Billion), 2014-2023 21
  • Figure 2: Myanmar Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 21
  • Figure 3: Myanmar GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 25
  • Figure 4: Myanmar Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 27
  • Figure 5: Myanmar Defense Capital Expenditure (MMK Billion), 2014-2023 29
  • Figure 6: Myanmar Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 29
  • Figure 7: Myanmar Per Capita Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 31
  • Figure 8: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 32
  • Figure 9: Terrorism Index, 2018 35
  • Figure 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 37
  • Figure 11: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 38
  • Figure 12: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 39
  • Figure 13: Myanmar Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2013-2017 42
  • Figure 14: Myanmar Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 43
  • Figure 15: Myanmar Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2013-2017 44
  • Figure 16: Myanmar GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025 51
  • Figure 17: Myanmar GDP, Current Prices (in US$ Billion), 2015-2025 52
  • Figure 18: Myanmar Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013 53
  • Figure 19: Local Currency Unit per US$ - Exchange Rate , 2015-2024 54
  • Figure 20: Myanmar Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 55
  • Figure 21: Myanmar Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 56
  • Figure 22: Myanmar Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 57
  • Figure 23: Myanmar Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 58
  • Figure 24: Myanmar Foreign Direct Investment, Net (current US$ Billion), 2005-2013 59
  • Figure 25: Myanmar Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 60
  • Figure 26: Myanmar Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 61
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