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1065103

2021 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2022 Forecast

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2021 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2022 Forecast
Published: January 31, 2022
sxcoal.com
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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  • Table of Contents

SUMMARY

Thanks to the effective containment of the COVID-19, the Chinese economy has realized a stable development in 2021. As the European and American countries are still held back by the pandemic, the strong demand in international market flows to China's manufacturing industry. In 2021, power generation from clean energy especially hydropower keeps low, so the pressure on thermal power has increased significantly. In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and dual energy consumption control, thermal coal demand will be constrained and demand growth in 2022 may decline YoY under a high base in 2021.

INTRODUCTION

Thanks to the effective containment of the COVID-19, the Chinese economy has realized a stable development in 2021. As the European and American countries are still held back by the pandemic, the strong demand in international market flows to China's manufacturing industry. In 2021, power generation from clean energy especially hydropower keeps low, so the pressure on thermal power has increased significantly. In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and dual energy consumption control, thermal coal demand will be constrained and demand growth in 2022 may decline YoY under a high base in 2021.

After large-scale de-capacity during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, backward coal capacity is being replaced with high quality capacity, and the effective capacity has consolidated, stabilizing the foundation for energy security. In recent years, over-capacity and other illegal production have been rectified in main producing provinces such as Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, and off-balance-sheet supply has contracted dramatically. Domestic coal production is greatly disrupted by environmental requirements and safety inspections especially during the celebration of the 100th Anniversary of the Founding of the Communist Party, and capacity released is slowed down.

Coal import policy keeps loose as imported coal can be an important supplement to domestic coal market, while it is also influenced by international relations. Since Australian coal imports were stopped from October 2020, the supply of premium seaborne coal has reduced markedly and the gap caused has not been made up until August of this year.

As supply and demand maintain unbalanced in 2021, thermal coal price reaches unprecedented high levels, significantly driving up cost in the downstream industry, especially thermal power generators. So, under the premise of ensuring production safety, guaranteeing coal supply has become the key task for the coal industry in 2021.

As approaching the end of 2021, Fenwei is timely releasing "2021 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2022 Outlook", to review and forecast important policies affecting coal industry development and market operation, and also provide detailed analysis and forecast for 2022 from the perspectives of macro and industrial environments, demand, supply, price, logistics, import & export, etc.

Table of Contents

1 China Macro Economy Review and Outlook

  • 1.1 China's macro economy in stable recovery in 2021
  • 1.2 2022 macro economy development outlook

2 2021 Coal Industry Policy Review and 2022 Developing Trend

  • 2.1 Coal capacity release policies
  • 2.2 Safety and environmental policies
    • 2.2.1 Safety inspection policies
    • 2.2.2 Environmental inspection and other policies
    • 2.2.3 Interpretation on Air Pollution Treatment Program in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Surrounding Areas during the Autumn and Winter of 2021-2022
    • 2.2.4 Safety and environmental policies forecast in 2022
  • 2.3 Coal import policies
    • 2.3.1 2021 import restriction/easing policy review
    • 2.3.2 2022 import policy developing trend forecast

3 2021 China Thermal Coal Demand Analysis and 2022 Forecast

  • 3.1 2021 China thermal coal demand analysis
  • 3.2 Power sector
    • 3.2.1 2021 thermal coal demand
    • 3.2.2 2021 power industry operation
    • 3.2.3 2022 demand forecast
  • 3.3 Iron and steel industry
    • 3.3.1 2021 thermal coal demand
    • 3.3.2 2022 demand forecast
  • 3.4 Building materials industry
    • 3.4.1 2021 thermal coal demand
    • 3.4.2 2022 demand forecast
  • 3.5 Coal chemical industry
    • 3.5.1 2021 thermal coal demand
    • 3.5.2 2022 demand forecast
  • 3.6 Heating supply and other industries
    • 3.6.1 2021 thermal coal demand
    • 3.6.2 2022 demand forecast
  • 3.7 2022 total thermal coal demand forecast

4 2021 China Thermal Coal Supply Analysis and 2022 Forecast

  • 4.1 Thermal coal capacity analysis and forecast
    • 4.1.1 2021 total thermal coal capacity
    • 4.1.2 2021 effective thermal coal capacity and composition
    • 4.1.3 2022 newly-added thermal coal capacity forecast
  • 4.2 Thermal coal supply analysis and forecast
    • 4.2.1 2021 thermal coal supply
    • 4.2.2 2022 supply forecast
  • 4.3 2021 thermal coal stock developing trend and 2022 forecast
    • 4.3.1 Main producing areas
    • 4.3.2 Transfer ports
    • 4.3.3 Power utilities
    • 4.3.4 2022 total coal stocks forecast

5 2021 China Thermal Coal Import & Export Analysis and 2022 Forecast

  • 5.1 China coal and thermal coal imports
    • 5.1.1 2021 thermal coal imports
    • 5.1.2 2022 import forecast
  • 5.2 China coal and thermal coal exports
    • 5.2.1 2021 thermal coal exports
    • 5.2.2 2022 export forecast

6 2021 China Thermal Coal Transport Analysis and 2022 Forecast

  • 6.1 2021 coal transport volumes
    • 6.1.1 Roadway
    • 6.1.2 Railway
    • 6.1.3 Shipment of Bohai Rim ports
  • 6.2 2021 under-construction and expansion roadway/railway projects
    • 6.2.1 Under-construction and expansion railway projects
    • 6.2.2 Under-construction and expansion roadway projects
  • 6.3 2021 transport freight analysis and 2022 forecast
    • 6.3.1 Roadway
    • 6.3.2 Railway
    • 6.3.3 Waterway

7 2021 China Thermal Coal Price Review and 2022 Forecast

  • 7.1 2021 thermal coal supply-demand balance analysis
  • 7.2 2021 China thermal coal price trend analysis
  • 7.3 2022 thermal coal price trend forecast
    • 7.3.1 Price influencing factors
    • 7.3.2 2022 thermal coal price forecast by month