2019-2020 China Coking Coal Market Analysis and Forecast

Domestic macro-economy faces significant downward pressure in 2019, while steel demand maintains a fast growth. Monthly crude steel and pig iron output hit record highs. Thanks to canceling "one-size-fits-all" approach, the operating rates of coke plants keep high, boosting coking coal consumption to increase rapidly. As de-capacity is coming to an end, and new capacity is gradually released, domestic coal supply is growing. Coking coal imports rise remarkably in 2019 driven by robust domestic demand and obvious cost effectiveness of imported coal. Coking coal market has shifted from tight balance to loose supply, with the price fluctuating downward.

Fenwei Energy is timely releasing the study report at year end, to review important policies affecting coking coal market operation, and provide 2020 forecast from policy environment, demand, supply, price, import & export, etc.

Table of Contents

1. 2019 China Coking Coal Market Overview

2. Macro Economy Review and Outlook

• 2.1 Downside pressure on macro economy mounting up in 2019 (macroeconomic indicators and outlook-GDP, IVA, PMI, CPI, PPI...)
• 2.2 Fixed asset investment growth slowing down (investments into real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing)
• 2.3 Production of main steel-related industries (auto making, home appliances, vessel building...)
• 2.4 Outlook on 2020 macro economy and main steel-related industry development

3. 2019 China Coking Coal Demand Analysis and 2020 Forecast

• 3.1 Steel industry operation analysis and forecast
  • 3.1.1 Policy analysis and development trend
    • De-capacity task is basically completed, while the concentration of iron and steel industry needs to be further enhanced.
    • Growth of capacity replacement is stronger than expected, with steel capacity transferring to the coastal areas.
    • Environmental policies cancel one-size-fits-all approach, with steel production curbed based on air quality in the region and pollutant emissions from steel mills
  • 3.1.2 2019 pig iron, crude steel and steel products production and 2020 forecast
  • 3.1.3 2019 steel import & export analysis and 2020 forecast
  • 3.1.4 2019 steel price developing trend and 2020 forecast
• 3.2 Coking industry operation analysis and forecast
  • 3.2.1 Policy analysis and development trend
    • Policy upgrade and execution in coking industry
    • The impact on marginal supply growth from normalized environmental protection is weakening.
  • 3.2.2 2019 coke production and 2020 forecast
  • 3.2.3 2019 coke import & export and 2020 forecast
  • 3.2.4 2019 coke price trend and 2020 forecast
• 3.3 2019 coking coal consumption and 2020 forecast

4. Coal Industry Policy Analysis and Outlook

• 4.1 Coal de-capacity is coming to an end.
• 4.2 Capacity replacement continues forging ahead; newly-added capacity is gradually released.
• 4.3 Frequent occurrences of mine incidents intensify safety inspections, leading coal supply to be restricted in the first half of 2019.
• 4.4 Normalized environmental inspections have limited impact on mine production.
• 4.5 Coal import policy has been expected to tighten, while the actual impact is limited.

5. 2019 China Coking Coal Supply Analysis and 2020 Forecast

• 5.1 2019 China coking coal capacity distribution and 2020 forecast
• 5.2 2019 China coking coal supply and 2020 forecast
  • 5.2.1 By province
  • 5.2.2 By type

6. 2019 China Coking Coal Import and Export Analysis and 2020 Forecast

• 6.1 2019 China coking coal import and 2020 Forecast
  • 6.1.1 By origin
  • 6.1.2 By province (in coastal regions)
  • 6.1.3 By major importer
  • 6.1.4 2020 import forecast
• 6.2 2019 China coking coal export and 2020 forecast
  • 6.2.1 By country
  • 6.2.2 2020 export forecast

7. 2019 China Coking Coal Supply-demand Balance and 2020 Forecast

• 7.1 Coking coal stock change and 2020 forecast
• 7.2 Coking coal supply-demand balance and 2020 forecast

8. 2019 Coking Coal Price Analysis and 2020 Forecast

• 8.1 2019 domestic coking coal price developing trend (producing areas, transfer ports and consuming areas)
• 8.2 2019 international coking coal price trend
• 8.3 Domestic and international coking coal price comparison
• 8.4 2020 coking coal price forecast
  • 8.4.1 Price influencing factor analysis
  • 8.4.2 CCI Liulin coking coal monthly and annual average price forecast

9. Conclusions