The Titanium Age: Markets, Opportunities, and New Technologies, 2019

“The Titanium Age: Markets, Opportunities and New Technologies ”, the fourth version of Thintri's initial titanium study analyzes current markets in titanium, pricing and supply issues in a range of titanium products like scrap, sponge, ingot, plate, etc., and effects of current economic, supply and demand conditions. The report also discusses emerging market opportunities through the maturing of technologies that promise to reduce the cost of titanium extraction, manufacturing, machining and welding. Forecasts are provided for both traditional and potential new titanium markets in a number of key sectors.

Background:

Titanium, an abundant resource with enormous potential in a large number of markets, has been hobbled by high costs, unstable volatile prices, processing difficulties, supply issues and industry-wide inefficiencies.

Titanium has the highest strength-to-density ratio of any metal, is essentially nonmagnetic, and is highly resistant to corrosion, even in hostile environments like salt water. Furthermore, it is highly biocompatible. Titanium has become well established in aerospace, trucks and heavy vehicles, medicine, chemical processing and general industry.

In recent years titanium suppliers have worked hard to bring the benefits of titanium to new applications, but just as new markets for titanium have opened up, the supply of titanium has fluctuated considerably, with notable effects on prices. Much of the constricting of supply was attributable to sharply rising aerospace demand as well as greater use in steel production, which reduced the supply of available scrap. These factors have led, in the past, led to extraordinary runups in prices, where some more than doubled in a single year, and some users were simply unable to obtain the titanium they needed. The volatility dampened enthusiasm for titanium in new markets where it could offer substantial long term cost savings and the instability often made it impossible to cultivate new markets.

In the last decade, suppliers of titanium sponge and other products rapidly expanded their output, only to see demand and prices drop with the recession. Today, after several years of sluggish demand for many commodities, titanium is rebounding and as the aerospace sector has worked through its stockpiled titanium, demand has been restored to reasonably healthy levels as capacity for most products has levelled off. Emerging markets, particularly medical, are even outpacing traditional markets.

Throughout all this, a number of low cost processing and manufacturing technologies have continued development that promise titanium (commercially pure and alloyed), potentially at greatly reduced cost. These processes, some of which are already commercialized, will significantly reduce costs in extraction, machining, welding and manufacture of titanium, while relieving supply issues that have plagued users in the past.

The promise of supply stability and lower prices can be expected to create an opening whereby new markets can be captured, bringing titanium to a broad range of new applications. Low cost production processes could provide a substantial investment opportunity.

Understand the Markets:

Thintri's new market study analyzes the current state of traditional titanium markets and current economic conditions. The effects of emerging low cost titanium processes and the market forces that will determine the future of the industry are investigated in detail. New and sometimes unexpected market opportunities are analyzed and forecasts are provided for both traditional markets, some of them unaffected by low cost processes, and new market opportunities created by low cost titanium.

The report is based on more than 100 in-depth interviews with experts from industry, Government and academia, as well as a broad range of published materials.

The Titanium Industry, Markets and Forecasts:

Titanium, raw materials production

Demand Drivers

Supply Side - Capacity

Current and Historical Prices, Forecasts

Market segments

• Aerospace
  • Engines
  • Airframe
  • New aircraft

• Industrial
  • Chemical processing
  • Power generation
  • Desalinization
  • Automotive - Cars - Trucks and heavy vehicles

• Medical
  • Implants
  • Surgical instruments

• Military
  • Aerospace
  • Marine
  • Land-based
  • Consumer

Emerging Markets and Latent Demand

• Effect of new processes
  • Extraction (Armstrong, MER, etc.)
  • Fabrication
  • Manufacture
  • Welding
  • Machining

• Aerospace markets
• Automotive markets
• Industrial markets
• Medical
• Consumer

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• E1. Introduction
• E2. Background: Titanium
• E3. The Titanium Industry Today

• E4. Supply and Capacity Issues
  • Figure ES-1: Sponge Capacity by Country
  • Figure ES-2: Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Passenger
  • Figure ES-3: Titanium Use by Aircraft Type

• E5. Price Trends
  • Figure ES- 4: Sample Plate Price Trends, Alloy Plate

• E6. Demand Outlook
  • Figure ES-5: Global Metallic Titanium Demand, Conventional Forecast
  • Figure ES-6: Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast, Industrial, Medical and Consumer Sectors

• E7. Commercialization of Low Cost Titanium Processes

• E8. Effect of a New Low-Cost Player

• E9. Latent Demand
  • Figure ES-7: Global Automotive Latent Demand
  • Figure ES-8: Global Latent Defense Demand, Armor
  • Figure ES-9: Global Industrial Latent Demand

Part I: Background on Titanium

• 1.1. Overview

• 1.2. Titanium in Industry
  • Figure 1-1: Shares by Weight, Metallic Titanium versus Titanium in Pigment

• 1.3. History
• 1.4. Titanium Production
• 1.5. Issues with Titanium

Part II: Industry Landscape

• 2.1. The Demand Side
  • Table 2-1: Current Titanium Markets
  • 2.1.1. The Aerospace Sector
    • 2.1.1.1. Titanium Deployment in Aircraft
    • 2.1.1.2. The Evolving Aerospace Market
    • 2.1.1.3. Regulations and Certification
  • 2.1.2. Industry, Chemical Processing, etc
    • 2.1.2.1. Industrial Markets
      • Figure 2-1: Industrial Titanium Markets
  • 2.1.3. Medical Applications
  • 2.1.4. Consumer Markets
  • 2.1.5. Automotive Applications
    • 2.1.5.1. Passenger Cars
      • Table 2-2: Commercial Automobile Titanium Components
    • 2.1.5.2. Trucks and Heavy Vehicles

• 2.2. The Supply Side
  • 2.2.1. Titanium Supply, Demand and Price Dynamics
  • 2.2.2. Pre-Melt: Sponge and Scrap
    • 2.2.2.1. Sponge
      • Figure 2-2: Sponge Capacity Growth by Country
      • Figure 2-3: Sponge Capacity Trends, US vs. Global
    • 2.2.2.2. Scrap
      • Figure 2-4: Scrap Availability Trends
  • 2.2.3. Melt Products
    • Figure 2-5: Melt Product Capacity Trends
  • 2.2.4. Mill Products
    • Figure 2-6: Mill Product Capacity Trends
    • Figure 2-7: Mill Product Demand Trends
  • 2.2.5. Capacity Today

• 2.3. Demand Drivers, Effects on Prices
  • 2.3.1. The Aerospace Factor
    • Figure 2-8: Titanium Use per Craft, by Aircraft Type
    • Figure 2-9: Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Passenger
    • Figure 2-10: Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Freight
  • 2.3.2. Other Factors in Supply
  • 2.3.3. The Effect on New Markets

• 2.4. Industry Contracts, Agreements and Price Negotiations

Part III: Cost Issues, Lead Times and Today's Market Outlook

• 3.1. Effects of Price Volatility and Industry Structure

• 3.2. Price Behavior and Forecasts
  • 3.2.1. Sponge
    • Figure 3-1: Sponge Price Trends
  • 3.2.2. Scrap
    • Figure 3-2: Scrap Price Trends, Turnings
    • Figure 3-3: Scrap Price Trends, Bulk Weldable
    • Figure 3-4: Scrap Price Trends, Clips
    • Figure 3-5: Scrap Price Trends, Ferro-Titanium
  • 3.2.3. Melt Products
    • 3.2.3.1. Slab
      • Figure 3-6: Slab Price Trends
    • 3.2.3.2. Ingot
      • Figure 3-7: Ingot Price Trends
    • 3.2.3.3. Plate
      • Figure 3-8: Plate Price Trends, B265 CP
      • Figure 3-9: Plate Price Trends, 4911 Alloy
      • Figure 3-10: Toll Rolling Price Trends, B265 CP and 4911 Alloy Plate

• 3.3. Today's Market Outlook
  • 3.3.1. Post-Recession Factors
  • 3.3.2. Recovery of the Titanium Industry
    • Figure 3-11: Global Metallic Titanium Demand, Conventional Forecast
    • Figure 3-12: Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast, Industrial, Medical and Consumer Sectors
    • Figure 3-13: Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast, Commercial Aerospace, Military Aerospace and Military Non-aerospace Sectors

• 3.4. Lead Times

• 3.5. Effects of Trade Wars, Sanctions, etc

Part IV: Commercialization of Low-Cost Titanium

• 4.1. Introduction
• 4.2. Raw Material Issues
• 4.3. Composition and Alloying
• 4.4. Quality, Purity, Performance

• 4.5. Ore-To-Metal Processes
  • 4.5.1. MER/DuPont
  • 4.5.2. Rio Tinto
  • 4.5.3. UTRS, Inc

• 4.6. The Powder Advantage
  • 4.6.1. Introduction
  • 4.6.2. MMS-Scanpac
  • 4.6.3. University of Utah
  • 4.6.4. ADMA Products
  • 4.6.5. ITP/Cristal Metals
  • 4.6.6. Metalysis
  • 4.6.7. Oak Ridge/Boeing
  • 4.6.8. Powder Applications, Demand & Pricing
  • 4.6.9. MIM
  • 4.6.10. 3-D Printing/Additive Manufacturing

• 4.7. Manufacture & Fabrication
  • 4.7.1. American Titanium Works
  • 4.7.2. Ti Squared Technologies

• 4.8. Machining
• 4.9. Welding
• 4.10. Titanium Process Commercialization
• 4.11. Effect of a New, Low-Cost Player

Part V: Latent Demand and Market Opportunities

• 5.1. Current Market Outlook: Conventional and Latent Demand
  • Figure 5-1: Overall Global Latent Titanium Demand

• 5.2. Consumer Markets
  • 5.2.1. Established Consumer Applications
    • 5.2.1.1. Sporting Goods
    • 5.2.1.2. Jewelry
    • 5.2.1.3. Architecture
      • Table 5-1: Titanium Tiles at the Guggenheim Museum, Bilbao, Spain
    • 5.2.1.4. Marine Markets
    • 5.2.1.5. Price and Supply Issues
    • 5.2.1.6. Latent Consumer Demand
      • Figure 5-2: Global Latent Demand, Consumer Markets, Non-Automotive

• 5.3. Automotive Markets
  • 5.3.1. Trucks and Commercial Vehicles
    • 5.3.1.1. Turbocharger Compressor Wheels
    • 5.3.1.2. Valve Train
    • 5.3.1.3. Connecting Rods
    • 5.3.1.4. Exhaust Systems
    • 5.3.1.5. Suspensions
  • 5.3.2. Opportunities in Mass Market Autos
    • Table 5-2: Existing and Potential Titanium Automotive Applications
    • 5.3.2.1. Valve Train, Valves, Valve Springs
    • 5.3.2.2. Connecting Rods
    • 5.3.2.3. Exhaust Systems
    • 5.3.2.4. Suspensions
  • 5.3.3. Racing, Motorcycles and Other Small Vehicles
  • 5.3.4. Regulations and Fuel Economy
  • 5.3.5. Economics
  • 5.3.6. Latent Automotive Demand
    • Figure 5-3: Global Latent Demand, Automotive Markets

• 5.4. General Industry, Oil & Gas, Mining, etc
  • 5.4.1. Chemical Processing, Pharmaceuticals, etc
  • 5.4.2. Oil & Gas, Mining
  • 5.4.3. Power Generation
  • 5.4.4. Pulp & Paper
  • 5.4.5. Desalination
  • 5.4.6. Latent Industrial Demand
    • Figure 5-4: Global Latent Demand, Industrial Markets

• 5.5. Aerospace
  • Figure 5-5: Commercial Aerospace Latent Demand

• 5.6. Defense
  • 5.6.1. Armor
    • 5.6.1.1. Armoring Vehicles
    • 5.6.1.2. Non-Vehicle Armor
    • 5.6.1.3. Fuel Economy
    • 5.6.1.4. Procurement Issues
  • 5.6.2. Naval Applications
  • 5.6.3. Latent Defense Demand
    • Figure 5-6: Global Latent Demand, Defense, Armor
    • Figure 5-7: Global Latent Demand, Defense, Other

• 5.7. Medical Markets
  • 5.7.1. Orthopedic Devices: Implants, Trauma Fixtures, etc
  • 5.7.2. Surgical Instruments
  • 5.7.3. Latent Medical Demand
    • Figure 5-8: Global Latent Demand, Medical Implants
    • Figure 5-9: Global Latent Demand, Surgical Instruments

Appendix A: Glossary of Terms

Appendix B: Professional Biography