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Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets 2019-2026, 16th Annual Report

Published: | Web-Feet Research, Inc. | 354 Pages | Delivery time: 1-2 business days


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Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets 2019-2026, 16th Annual Report
Published: August 31, 2021
Web-Feet Research, Inc.
Content info: 354 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
  • Description
  • Table of Contents

Key Findings

Web-Feet Research, Inc. provides a highly detailed market segmentation in its sixteenth annual report on Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets, (CS100XFA-2021). This extensive update provides an integrated memory/storage end-use market segmentation in the consumer, mobile and computing markets and forecasts the NAND, NOR and XPoint/NVRAM usage in over 195 end-use applications. Some of the new applications forecast are: TWS and hearables, server-side CXL XPoint DIMMs, All Flash Arrays, and SSDs for the Xbox and Playstation 5.

As the Flash/NVM technology evolved intelligently so did its markets. Beginning with basic media file storage in consumer applications NAND grew in usage. Mobile storage in Smart phones needs more sophisticated Flash in performing execute-in-place and more reliable storage. Computing requires the utmost performance from the block addressable NAND to using XPoint/NVRAM as byte persistent SCM merges working data with hot storage to enable high capacity in-memory computing. As emphasized in this report, serial NOR should see a strong rebound of over $3 billion in establishing the connection for 5G, automotive, and the Internet of Things in over 50 billion intelligent connected devices by 2026.

In the Flash and XPoint Memory Applications and Markets forecast, WebFeet Research provides a density breakout by revenue, units, and Mbits/Gbits for NAND (SLC, MLC, TLC, eMLC, SPI, Combo (MCP) NAND); 3D NAND (MLC, TLC); NOR, MLC NOR, serial NOR, Combo NOR and serial Combo NOR; and XPoint/NVRAM Memory. The forecast period includes 2019-2020 historical and 2021-2026 projections. A special section breaks out the serial NOR by over 50 applications including the major use of quad/plus IO serial NOR components. In addition, the compute market examines the use of Flash cache, Server-side SSDs, CXL SSDs and storage SSDs for the client and cloud/datacenter/enterprise end-use markets. The GB consumption is also forecast by memory/storage end-use market and shows when computing becomes the Flash consumption market share leader. Finally, the 2020 Flash Market Shares by Vendor is included showing how the players have changed position based on acquisitions and pricing to reach $60 billion in total Flash.

Intel's CXL 2.0 announcement allows the Memory Channel to expand to allow PCIe 5.0 expansion boards to be directly addressed and supports full cache coherency. Intel's support for this extension applies only to Optane Memory - whether Intel will provide support for Flash Memory has not yet been determined. The official release of Optane will most likely be aligned with Intel's Sapphire Rapids announcement which has been delayed until Q1 '22.

WebFeet has been closely following Nantero's carbon nanotube enabled NVRAM (called NRAM by Nantero now) for several years. Nantero is directing their licensing efforts directly at the DRAM replacement market. WebFeet forecasts NRAM application usage beginning in 2023 in this study.

QLC NAND's market arrival is being embraced by the computational storage startups PlIOPs and NGD Systems. These very high density 3D Flash memories contained in Terabyte SSDs are replacing archival HDD storage devices allowing data mining and analyses for active near real-time utilization.

Even though China has become self-sufficient in making 3D NAND, they will begin to target QLC soon. We don't know how much effect China will have on the world wide NAND markets.

On the technology front for NOR Flash, the 512Mbit, 1Gbit and some 2Gbit serial NOR are shipping; in addition, these can run at high speed (up to 400MB/s). For 3D NAND, the 3-bit TLC NAND has been mastered by all vendors and have included 3-bit usage into SSD production. Most 3D NAND vendors have embraced QLC 4-bit NAND and converting HDD storage into archival SSD storage.

In the End-Use market chapter, Web-Feet Research forecasts over ninety end-use markets using over 195 individual applications that supply the individual inputs for revenue, units, and Megabits/Gigabits that are consolidated to build the 'bottoms-up' demand forecast. The Internet of Things has become ubiquitous, so to provide more definition within each use market a sub-segment of IoT helps to organize usage. In the mobile market, smart phones are still one of the largest Flash applications even with some softening of demand. Within the mobility sub-segment of Wearables the AppleWatch / Smartwatch, TWS headsets, fitness-type wearables and Augmented/Virtual Reality glasses are expected to increase demand in the second half of the forecast. Consumer applications are segmented into Personal IoT and Connected Home where Digital cameras, Media Players, along with Smart Speakers, television, Set top Boxes and game consoles and consumer devices are maintaining a healthy share of Flash consumption. Client computing focuses on SSDs in notebooks and tablets, along with desktops and nettops. Data Center and Cloud computing covers Enterprise storage SSDs in nine application market niches and server-side Flash and XPoint/NVRAM memory/storage. Automotive is covered for Serial NOR, SLC/SPI NAND, EFD (eMMC/UFS), and SSD, with usage projected for the levels of Autonomous Car implementation.

Product Code: CS100XFA-2021

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

1 Key Findings

2 Methodology

3 Flash NVM Memory Market Forecast

  • 3.1 Overall Flash/XPoint Memory Market Forecast
  • 3.2 NOR, NAND and XPoint Shipments
  • 3.3 End-Use Market Shipments
  • 3.4 Flash Revenue Forecast by Geographic Region
  • 3.5 Flash Revenue by Voltage

4 A Market Perspective on Mobile Storage

  • 4.1 The Electronic Device Market
    • 4.1.1 Function-based Market Segmentation
    • 4.1.2 Device-based Market Segmentation
    • 4.1.3 Use Model-based Market Segmentation
    • 4.1.4 Memory/Storage Function-based Market Segmentation
    • 4.1.5 Market Segmentation Summary
  • 4.2 Market Segmentation Summary for Memory / Storage
  • 4.3 IoT to Data Center - Memory/Storage Market Segmentation

5 A System Architecture Perspective on Mobile Computing

  • 5.1 Market-Driven System Architecture Development
  • 5.2 System Architecture Impact on Mobile Storage

6 A System Architecture View to Memory/Storage Convergence

  • 6.1 Memory/Storage Convergence Enables Hybrid Cognitive Computing
    • 6.1.1 System Architecture Assumptions
  • 6.2 Positioning SCM within Storage Systems
  • 6.3 Working Memory and Hot Storage Merge

7 End-Use Markets

  • 7.1 Serial NOR End-Use Markets
  • 7.2 Mobility End-Use Market
    • 7.2.1 Cell Phones
    • 7.2.2 Bluetooth I/O
    • 7.2.3 Wearable TWS, Cameras, AR/VR Glasses
    • 7.2.4 Watch
    • 7.2.5 Wearables Fitness
  • 7.3 CONSUMER
  • 7.4 Personal IoT
    • 7.4.1 Digital Cameras
    • 7.4.2 Digital Camcorder
    • 7.4.3 Digital Voice Recorders
    • 7.4.4 MP3 Music Players
    • 7.4.5 Personal Media Player
    • 7.4.6 Photo Albums
    • 7.4.7 Electronic Books, Directories
    • 7.4.8 Games - Handheld, Portable, Organizers, and Dictionaries
    • 7.4.9 Toys
    • 7.4.10 Projectors
  • 7.5 Connected Home IoT
    • 7.5.1 Digital Home (Internet of Things)
    • 7.5.2 Television
    • 7.5.3 Set Top Box
    • 7.5.4 DVD ROM and Players / Recorders
    • 7.5.5 Blu Ray DVD ROM and Players /Recorders
    • 7.5.6 UHD DVD Players and Recorders
    • 7.5.7 Games - Consoles
    • 7.5.8 Fax, Word Processors, Office Machines
    • 7.5.9 Cordless/DECT/VoIP Phones
    • 7.7.1 Personal Computer, Workstation, Server, and Notebooks
    • 7.7.2 Notebook Computing - Flash Cache and SSD
    • 7.7.3 Tablets/iPad
    • 7.7.4 Netbooks
    • 7.7.5 Nettops
    • 7.7.6 Printers
    • 7.7.7 Webcams
    • 7.7.8 LCD/LED Monitors
    • 7.7.9 Modems
    • 7.7.10 Audio and Graphic Cards
  • 7.8 Cloud / Enterprise Computing
    • 7.8.1 Servers
    • 7.8.2 Servers - Side Storage
    • 7.8.3 Solid State Drives (SSD)
    • 7.8.4 Hard Disk Drives
    • 7.8.5 Network Systems - NIC, Hub, Router, Switches, ATM
    • 7.8.6 Network Memory Modules
    • 7.9.1 Automotive
    • 7.9.2 Digital Radio
    • 7.9.3 Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
    • 7.9.4 UAV / Drones
  • 7.10 INDUSTRIAL (Internet of Things) 241
    • 7.10.1 Meters, Sensors, Embedded, Controllers, Signage, Kiosks, Point-Of-Sale
    • 7.10.2 Smart Cities: Smart Buildings, Infrastructure, Utilities, Network Computing
    • 7.10.3 Games - Arcade
    • 7.10.4 3D Printers
    • 7.11.1 Data Recorder, Inflight Entertainment/Communications, Guidance, Command & Control, Combat Computer Systems, Security Identity Tags

8 Flash Shipments

  • 8.1 Flash/XPoint Revenue Shipments by Density
    • 8.1.1 NOR Revenue Shipments
    • 8.1.2 Serial Flash Revenue Shipments
    • 8.1.3 XPoint/NVRAM Memory Flash Revenue Shipments
    • 8.1.4 NAND Revenue Shipments
    • 8.1.5 Combo Revenue Shipments
  • 8.2 Flash Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.1 NOR Flash Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.2 ML NOR Flash Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.3 Serial Flash Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.4 SCM Memory - XPoint/NVRAM Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.5 NAND Flash Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.6 ML NAND Flash Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.7 TL, 3D and eML NAND Flash Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.8 SPI NAND Flash Unit Shipments
    • 8.2.9 Combo Flash Unit Shipments
  • 8.3 Flash Average Selling Price
    • 8.3.1 NOR Flash ASP
    • 8.3.2 ML NOR Flash ASP
    • 8.3.3 Serial Flash ASP
    • 8.3.4 XPoint/NVRAM ASP
    • 8.3.5 NAND Flash ASP
    • 8.3.6 ML NAND ASPs
    • 8.3.7 TL, 3D and eML NAND ASPs
    • 8.3.8 SPI NAND ASPs
    • 8.3.9 Combo Flash ASPs
  • 8.4 Flash Shipments by Gigabits/Megabits
  • 8.5 Flash Megabit Shipments by Density
  • 8.6 Flash Price per Megabit/GB by Density

9 Flash Memory Market Shares by Vendor

10 Appendix A

11 Appendix B: Biography