The Solid State Lighting Revolution Market Analysis And Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs

The Solid State Lighting Revolution Market Analysis And Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs published by The Information Network in April, 2011. This report price starts from US $ 2495.

Introduction

Abstract

The High Brightness Light Emitting Diode (HB LED) market is expected to explode as unit shipments more than double between 2009 and 2012 according to the report “The Solid State Lighting Revolution: Market Analysis And Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs.”

“The rapid increase in the market for HB LEDs used in various applications such as notebook backlights and automobile headlights is also spurring heavy capital investments by LED makers, noted Dr. Robert Castellano, president of The Information Network. “LEDs are creating a niche market for conventional suppliers of semiconductor processing tools and a lucrative market for MOCVD suppliers.”

Veeco, a leading supplier of MOCVD tools, notes in an investor presentation that a consensus of forecasts from six sell-side analysts forecasts a doubling in MOCVD demand, from 208 tools in 2009 to 415 tools in 2011.

Our analysis indicates that in 2009, each MOCVD tool was capable of processing about 30 million LEDs. In 2011, based on the same throughput, there will be a cumulative supply deficit of 15.5 million LED units, unless MOCVD equipment suppliers increase throughput and yields to reduce CoO. The U.S. DOE' s Solid State Lighting Manufacturing Roadmap targets a factor of two improvement in cost-of-ownership for manufacturing equipment every five years. If suppliers are successful, enhancements in processing time, uniformity, repeatability, temperature control, and flow geometries will mitigate the supply deficit.

“Clearly it is not within the best interests of MOCVD tool suppliers to improve CoO as it will reduce sales,” added Dr. Castellano. “But competition is the key enabler, which will force suppliers to enhance their tool capabilities.”

The HB LEDs are currently a $5 billion niche market compared to the $250 million semiconductor market. The consensus forecast of 415 MOCVD tools represents a market of greater than $1 billion based on an average selling price of $2.5 million for each MOCVD tool. MOCVD represents 8% of the typical cost breakdown for a packaged LED. Other front-end tools represent more than 3% of the cost and equates to an additional $500 million market for lithography and metrology tools. The biggest sector, 65%, represents back-end processes such as substrate removal, chip separation, and packaging.

The backlight sectors will exhibit the fastest growth in the HB LED market with an overall compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 40%, led by the LCD TV sector exhibiting a CAGR of 300.3% between 2007 and 2012.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 - Introduction

Chapter 2 - Recent Progress in High Brightness LED Technology and Applications

• 2.1 LED: Theory of Operation
• 2.2 Intellectual Property Map
• 2.3 LED Manufacturing Technologies & Costs
• 2.4 LED Market General Illumination

Chapter 3 - Processing Equipment

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 MOCVD for SSL - Productivity Challenges and Solutions
• 3.3 Low temperature Remote Plasma Chemical Vapor Deposition (RPCVD)
• 3.3.1 RPCVD Process Advantages
• 3.4 Defect Inspection and Testing
• 3.5 Lithography
  • 3.5.1 Steppers
  • 3.5.2 Nanoimprint
  • 3.5.3 Nanopatterning of LED Wafers

Chapter 4 - Materials of Construction

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 GaN-based LED for General Lighting
  • 4.2.1 Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency
  • 4.2.2 Time-to-Market for LED substrates
• 4.3 LED Phosphor Manufacturing Issues
• 4.3.1 Current LED Phosphor Manufacturing
• 4.3.2 LED Phosphor Cost

Chapter 5 - Packaging and Assembly Issues for High Brightness LEDs

• 5.1 Packaging for HB LEDs
  • 5.1.1 Bonding
  • 5.1.2 Die/Ball Bonding
• 5.1.3 Scribing
• 5.2 Wafer Level Packaging HB LEDs
• 5.3 Thermal Issues
• 5.4 Test for HB LEDs

Chapter 6 - National Programs As Innovation Drivers

• 6.1 DOE Solid-State Lighting Manufacturing Initiative
• 6.2 DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Mission and Goal
• 6.3 Major National Research Programs Pertaining to LEDs
• 6.4 Challenges Facing SSL Manufacturing
  • 6.4.1 Inconsistent Color
  • 6.4.2 Low Light Output
• 6.4.3 Challenges Facing Market Introduction

Chapter 7 - OLED Lighting

• 7.1 Opportunities for Luminaire Manufacturers
• 7.2 Critical Issues for Continued OLED Market Growth
• 7.3 Manufacturing Options and Equipment Needs
• 7.4 Availability of Critical Materials
• 7.5 OLED Lighting Costs

Chapter 8 - OLED Manufacturing

• 8.1 Deposition Equipment and Processes for OLED Lighting
• 8.2 General OLED Manufacturing Cost Considerations
• 8.3 Roll-to-Roll OLEDs
• 8.4 Lithography
• 8.5 Substrates and Encapsulation
  • 8.5.1 Substrate and Encapsulation Material Selection
  • 8.5.2 Substrate Coatings
  • 8.5.3 Transparent Electrodes
  • 8.5.4 Encapsulation
• 8.6 Inspection and Quality Control

Chapter 9 - Outlook for the Worldwide OLED Market

• 9.1 Introduction
• 9.2 Passive Matrix Capacity and Demand
• 9.3 Active Matrix Capacity and Demand
• 9.4 Cost Challenges for OLED Lighting

Chapter 10 - Outlook for the Worldwide High-Brightness LED Market

• 10.1 HB LED Technology
• 10.2 HB LED Market Overview and trends
  • 10.2.1 Market Drivers for SSL
  • 10.2.2 LED Backlights for Notebook PCs
  • 10.2.3 LED Backlights for LCD TVs
  • 10.2.4 LED Backlights for Other Applications
  • 10.2.5 LED Lighting Market
  • 10.2.6 LED Active Outdoor Display Market
  • 10.2.7 LED Signal Market
  • 10.2.8 LED Automotive Market
  • 10.2.9 LED Mobile Market

LIST OF TABLES

• 2.1. Color, Wavelength Material Of LED
• 2.2. Light Source Comparison
• 2.3. Comparison of LED, HB-LED, UHB-LED Characteristics
• 3.1. Epitaxy Metrics from Initial Solid-State Lighting Manufacturing R&D Roadmap
• 3.2. Process Control Metrics
• 4.1. Production Method for Various LEDs
• 4.2. Comparison of $/klm for LED Made on Various 2" Substrates
• 5.1. Properties Of Die Bonding Processes
• 7.1. Comparison Of Lighting Technologies
• 7.2. OLED Displays vs OLED lighting
• 8.1. Manufacturing Roadmap for Sheet Processing of OLED Lighting Panels
• 8.2. Manufacturing Roadmap for Web Processing of OLED Lighting Panels
• 8.3. Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Sheet Processed) Stage
• 8.4. Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Web Processed) Stage
• 10.1. Forecast Of LED Backlights For Notebook PCs
• 10.2. Forecast Of LED Backlights For LCD TVs
• 10.3. Forecast Of LED Backlights For Other Application
• 10.4. Forecast Of LED Lighting Market
• 10.5. Forecast Of LED Active Outdoor Display Market
• 10.6. Forecast Of LED Signal Market
• 10.7. Forecast Of LED Automotive Market
• 10.8. Forecast Of LED Mobile Market
• 10.9. Revenues of Top LED Vendors

LIST OF FIGURES

• 2.1. Operation of LED
• 2.2. Key Intellectual Property Relationships
• 2.3. DOE Roadmap
• 2.4. Relative Manufacturing Costs
• 2.5. Pareto Analysis Of SSL Manufacturing Costs
• 2.6. Market drivers for LED Biz and Applications
• 2.7. SSL vs. Classical Technologies
• 2.8. LED Performance vs. Traditional Light Sources
• 2.9. Energy Production and Use Comparison
• 2.10. White-LEDs for General Lighting Market estimates in $B to 2020
• 2.11. Wafer Needs for General Lighting (2” wafer equivalents, million units to 2020)
• 3.1. SSL - LED manufacturing with MOCVD: productivity and Cost Analysis
• 3.2. Larger Wafer Size: GaN LEDs
• 3.3. Global Shipments Of MOCVD Tools For 2009-2010 By Vendor
• 3.4. Global Shipments Of MOCVD Tools For 2009-2010 By Region
• 3.5. Diagram of RPCVD Reactor
• 3.6. Comparison between MOCVD and RPCVD
• 3.7. Nanoimprint Lithography System
• 3.8. The Phlatlight Chip
• 4.1. Regular LED (white) Front-End Steps
• 4.2. Current Blocking Layer
• 4.3. Regular LED (white) Production Costs for 100k wafers/year
• 4.4. HB LED (white) Production Costs for 100k wafers/year
• 4.5. LED Cost Model: Impact of Substrate Choice
• 4.6. Main Manufacturing Steps for GaN-based LED
• 4.7. Regular LED (white) Back-End
• 4.8. Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency
• 4.9. Phosphor Coating - Four Approaches
• 5.1. Hybrid Integration Approach to HD-LED Package
• 5.2. Chain Wire Bond
• 5.3. HB-LED with Silicon Carrier Submount
• 5.4. Silicon interposer for MEMS / LED Applications
• 5.5. High Brightness LED
• 5.6. SMD Package Cost Structure
• 5.7. Packaging Changes Result in Optical Improvements
• 5.8. Substrate Solutions for HB/HP LEDs
• 6.1. DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Strategy
• 6.2. DOE Efficacy Targets
• 6.3. Congressional Appropriations
• 6.4. SSL R&D Project Funding
• 6.5. Price Targets
• 7.1. Status of Technology Towards Lighting Targets
• 7.2. Maximizing Internal Quantum Efficiency
• 7.3. Manufacturing Options
• 7.4. Kodak VIST Deposition Source
• 7.5. OLED Lighting Costs - VTE process
• 7.6. OLED Lighting Costs: Glass Substrate
• 8.1. Steps of OLED Production
• 8.2. Industrial Coater Design Approaches
• 8.3. Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line - Gen 2
• 8.4. Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line - Gen 4/5
• 8.5. Process Flow for OLED stack
• 8.6. Comparison of Deposition Sources
• 8.7. Roll-to-Roll OLED Fabrication
• 9.1. Schematic of PMOLED
• 9.2. PMOLED Stack/Driving Architecture
• 9.3. Schematic of AMOLED
• 9.4. Passive Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand Forecast
• 9.5. Active Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand Forecast
• 10.1. LED Market by Sector
• 10.2. Worldwide LED Market Forecast 2008-2014

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