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Rare Earths Elements In High-Tech Industries: Market Analysis And Forecasts Amid China's Trade Embargo

At the time of the alleged 2010 embargo, Chinese firms accounted for 97 percent of rare-earth oxide production and a large fraction of the processing business that turns these into rare earth metals, alloys, and products like magnets. This near-monopoly was in a market with surging demand and intense political resonance in consuming countries. And the most dependent countries-primarily Japan and the United States, but also several European states-happened to be those over which China most wanted influence. Prices soared in the REE spot market in the wake of China's 2010 export cuts, especially as downstream users-companies that incorporate REEs into other products-filled inventories to protect themselves from future disruptions.

Downstream markets are already adjusting to the changing supply picture through normal market mechanisms. This report presents a forecast of REE for a variety of technologies: semiconductors, HDDs, FPDs, mobile devices, LEDs, and alternative energy.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Rare Earth Element Characteristics
  • 1.2 Rare Earth Element Resources
  • 1.3 Overview of Rare Earth Element Applications

Chapter 2. Rare Earth Industry

  • 2.1 China' Rare Earth Industry
    • 2.1.1 China's Production
    • 2.1.2 China Rare Earth Production Structure
    • 2.1.3 China Rare Earth Consumption Structure
    • 2.1.4 China Export of Rare Earths
    • 2.1.5 Recent Activities Of China's Rare Earth Industry
      • 2.1.5.1 Consolidation Of China's Rare Earth Industry
  • 2.2 Rest Of World's Rare Earth Industry
    • 2.2.1 UNITED STATES
      • 2.2.1.1 Mountain Pass
      • 2.2.1.2 Utah Rare Earth Project
      • 2.2.1.3 Bear Lodge Rare-Earth Project
      • 2.2.1.4 Elk Creek
      • 2.2.1.5 Bokan-Dotson Ridge
      • 2.2.1.6 Diamond Creek
      • 2.2.1.7 Lemhi Pass
    • 2.2.2 CANADA
      • 2.2.2.1 MacLeod Lake Project
      • 2.2.2.2 Hoidas Lake
      • 2.2.2.3 Benjamin River Project
      • 2.2.2.4 Douglas River Project
      • 2.2.2.5 Nechalacho Rare Earth Element Project
      • 2.2.2.6 Archie Lake
      • 2.2.2.7 Bulstrode Rare Earth Property
      • 2.2.2.8 Mount Copeland
      • 2.2.2.9 Cross Hills Newfoundland
      • 2.2.2.10 Kipawa
      • 2.2.2.11 Strange Lake
      • 2.2.2.12 Ytterby
      • 2.2.2.13 Grevet REE
      • 2.2.2.14 Turner Falls
    • 2.2.3 SOUTH AFRICA
      • 2.2.3.1 Steenkampskraal Mine South Africa
    • 2.2.4 AUSTRALIA
      • 2.2.4.1 Nolans Bore
      • 2.2.4.2 Mount Weld
      • 2.2.4.3 Jungle Well/ Laverton
    • 2.2.5 GREENLAND
      • 2.2.5.1 Kvanefjeld Project
    • 2.2.6 ARGENTINA
      • 2.2.6.1 Cueva del Chacho
      • 2.2.6.2 Susques Property - Jujuy Province
      • 2.2.6.3 John Galt Project
    • 2.2.7 INDIA
      • 2.2.7.1 Indian Rare Earth
    • 2.2.8 RUSSIA
      • 2.2.8.1 Kutessay II
  • 2.3 Profiles of Mining Corporations

Chapter 3 Rare Earth Market Analysis

  • 3.1 Overview
  • 3.2 Rare Earth Market
    • 3.2.1 Domestic Production and Consumption
    • 3.2.2 China Production and Consumption
  • 3.3 Global Rare Earth Market Analysis

Chapter 4 Impact on Hi-Tech Applications

  • 4.1 Semiconductors
    • 4.1.1 Technology Impacted
      • 4.1.1.1 High-k Dielectrics
      • 4.1.1.2 Polishing Powders
    • 4.1.2 Rare Earth Material Used
    • 4.1.3 Market Forecast of Impacted Semiconductor Devices/Materials
  • 4.2 Hard Disk Drives (HDDs)
    • 4.2.1 Technology Impacted
      • 4.2.1.1 Neo Magnets for HDDs
      • 4.2.1.2 High Strength Glass Substrates
    • 4.2.1. 3 Polishing Materials
    • 4.2.2 Rare Earth Material Used
    • 4.2.3 Market Forecast of Impacted HDD Devices/Materials
  • 4.3 Displays - FPD/CRT
    • 4.3.1 Technology Impacted
      • 4.3.1.1 Polishing Materials
      • 4.3.1.2 Phosphors
    • 4.3.2 Rare Earth Material Used
    • 4.3.3 Market Forecast of Impacted CRT/FPD Devices/Materials
  • 4.4 Mobile and Mobile Internet Devices
    • 4.4.1 Technology Impacted
    • 4.4.2 Rare Earth Material Used
    • 4.4.3 Market Forecast of Impacted Mobile Devices/Materials
  • 4.5 Solid State Lighting - LED/CFL
    • 4.5.1 Technology Impacted
      • 4.5.1.1 Phosphors for Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs)
      • 4.5.1.2 Phosphors for Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL)
    • 4.5.2 Rare Earth Material Used
    • 4.5.3 Market Forecast of Impacted LED Devices/Materials
  • 4.6 Green Technology
    • 4.6.1 Technology Impacted
      • 4.6.1.1 Rare Earths for Hybrid Vehicle Batteries (NiMH)
      • 4.6.1.2 Neo Magnets for Hybrid Vehicle Electric Motors and Brakes
      • 4.6.1.3 Neo Magnets for Wind Turbines
      • 4.6.1.4 Catalytic Converter for Automobiles
    • 4.6.2 Rare Earth Material Used
    • 4.6.3 Market Forecast of Impacted Green Devices/Materials
    • 4.6.4 Other Green Technologies

Chapter 5. U.S Strategic Metal Perspective

  • 5.1 The Application of Rare Earth Metals in National Defense
  • 5.2 Rare Earth Resources and Production Potential
  • 5.3 Supply Chain Issues
  • 5.4 Rare Earth Legislation in the 111th Congress
    • 5.4.1 H.R. 6160, Rare Earths And Critical Materials Revitalization Act Of 2010
    • 5.4.2 H.R. 4866, the Rare Earths Transformation Act of 2010
    • 5.4.3 S. 3521, Rare Earths Supply Technology and Resources Transformation Act of 2010
    • 5.4.4 H.R. 5136, the Fiscal Year 2011 National Defense Authorization Act
    • 5.4.5 P.L. 111-84, the Fiscal Year 2010 National Defense Authorization Act
    • 5.4.6 H.R. 1960, National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY2014
  • 5.5 Possible Policy Options
    • 5.5.1 Authorize And Appropriate Funding For A USGS Assessment
    • 5.5.2 Support And Encourage Greater Exploration For REE
    • 5.5.3 Challenge China On Its Export Policy
    • 5.5.4 Establish A Stockpile

Chapter 6 European Strategic Metal Perspective

  • 6.1 Assessing Criticality
    • 6.1.1 Geological And Technical Availability
    • 6.1.2 Key Terms And Definitions
    • 6.1.3 Geological Availability
    • 6.1.4 Technological Development
    • 6.1.5 Geopolitical-Economic Availability
  • 6.2 Results And List Of Critical Raw Materials
    • 6.2.1 Economic Importance And Supply Risks
    • 6.2.2 Future Perspectives On Raw Material Demand - Implications Of Technological Change.
    • 6.2.3 Emerging technologies and raw materials

Chapter 7 Rebuilding a U.S. Supply Chain

  • 7.1 Non-Chinese Sources of New Rare Earths
  • 7.2 Impact of Price Hikes by Application

List of Tables

  • 1.1 Selected Rare Earth Element Bearing Products
  • 1.2 Rare Earths Elements And Some Of Their End Uses
  • 2.1 Rare Earth Prices
  • 2.2 Global Capacity Of Rare Earth Oxides - 2010
  • 2.3 Global Capacity Of Rare Earth Oxides - 2014
  • 3.1 U.S. Rare Earth Statistics
  • 3.2 Rare Earth Prices
  • 3.3 Rare Earth Elements: World Production And Reserves
  • 3.4 Rare Earth Oxide Capacity
  • 3.5 Rare Earth Oxide Capacity
  • 3.6 Rare Earth Oxide Demand-Supply
  • 3.7 Rare Earth Composition By End Use
  • 4.1 Properties Of Rare Earth Ln2O3 Oxides
  • 4.2 Forecast of CMP Slurry
  • 4.3 Demand of Rare Earths for Neo Magnets
  • 4.4 Market Forecast for Hard Disk Drives by Size
  • 4.5 Market Forecast For Ceria Slurry For Glass Disks
  • 4.6 Demand of Rare Earths for Polishing Compounts for FPD/CRT
  • 4.7 Demand of Rare Earths for Phosphors for FPD/CRT
  • 4.8 Market Forecast of FPD/CRT by Type
  • 4.9 Market Forecast of Mobile/MID by Type
  • 4.10 Demand of Rare Earths for Phosphors for CFLs
  • 4.11 Market forecast of Backlight LEDs by Application
  • 4.12 Demand of Rare Earths for NiMH Batteries
  • 4.13 Demand of Rare Earths for Neo Magnets
  • 4.14 Demand for Rare Earths for Automobile Catalysts
  • 5.1 Rare Earth Elements: World Production And Reserves
  • 6.1 Rare Earth Applications
  • 6.2 Global Metal Production

List of Figures

  • 1.1 Periodic Table Of Rare Earth Elements
  • 1.2 Abundance Of The Rare Earth Elements
  • 1.3 Rare Earth Production Since 1950
  • 1.4 China's Rare Earth Dominance
  • 2.1 Rare Earth Proportion And Distribution In China
  • 2.2 Production Of Rare Earth Concentrates Since 1994
  • 2.3 Production Of Smelting Separation Products Since 1999
  • 2.4 Production Of Rare Earth Metals Since 1988
  • 2.5 Production Of Rare Earth Oxides Since 1950
  • 2.6 Consumption Of Rare Earths Since 1990
  • 2.7 Consumption Structure Of China From 1988
  • 2.8 Gross Volume Of Exports From 1979
  • 2.9 Gross Value Of Exports From 1979
  • 3.1 U.S. Distribution Of Refined Rare Earth Products
  • 3.2 Rare-Earth Price Index
  • 3.3 Comparison Of Rare Earth Consumption .Between
  • China And The World
  • 3.4 Global Supply-Demand Forecast
  • 3.5 ROW Supply-Demand Forecast
  • 3.6 REO Distribution By Weight - 2010
  • 3.7 REO Distribution By Revenue - 2010
  • 3.8 REO Distribution By Weight - 2014
  • 3.9 REO Distribution By Revenue - 2014
  • 3.10 REE Composition By End Use
  • 3.11 Approximate Percentage Content Of Current And
  • Prospective Ores
  • 4.1 Illustration of MOSFET and Gate Oxide
  • 4.2 STI CMP Using Ceria
  • 4.3 HDD Drive and Neo Magnets
  • 4.4 Glass Media Drive Forecast
  • 4.5 Market Forecast For Neo Magnets
  • 4.6 Illustration of Phosphors in PDPs
  • 4.7 Market Forecast For Neo Magnets
  • 4.8 Traditional Design of a 5-mm white LED
  • 4.9 Scattered Photon Extraction white LED
  • 4.10 Supply Chain for Fluorescent Lighting
  • 4.11 Rare Earths Used in Hybrid Vehicles
  • 4.12 Hybrid Vehicle Battery (NiMH)
  • 4.13 Hybrid Vehicle Electric Motor and Brakes
  • 4.14 Wind Turbine Motor
  • 4.15 Supply Chain for Permanent Magnets
  • 4.16 Catalytic Converter for Automobiles
  • 4.17 Forecast of Hybrid Vehicles
  • 4.18 Forecast of Wind Generators
  • 6.1 Supply Of Strategic Metals To The European Union
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