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Market Research Report

North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

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North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
Published: November 19, 2019 Content info: 26 Slides
Description

"The total telecoms revenue in North America will grow by 4.7% between 2019 and 2024."

The total telecoms revenue growth in North America will mainly be driven by revenue growth from both mobile services and fixed broadband services. In this report, we analyse how various operator strategies will affect different areas of the telecoms market in North America.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America and for the two countries in the region
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

  Region modelled

  • North America (NA)

  Countries modelled individually

  • Canada
  • USA

  Connections

  Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

  Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

  Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

  Revenue

  Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

  Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 8. Fixed broadband revenue will be the main contributor to telecoms revenue growth in North America between 2018 and 2024
  • 9. The telecoms market in North America is reasonably mature and will grow more slowly than the rest of the economy in the region between 2018 and 2024
  • 10. Geographical coverage: 4G and 5G will be the only mobile technologies used in the region by 2023; 2G and 3G will shut down, allowing spectrum to be refarmed
  • 11. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 12. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 14. Market context: the economies in Canada and the USA have been growing at a slow pace, and may fall into recession in the coming years
  • 15. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 16. Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
  • 17. Market overview: revenue growth in the telecoms market will be limited due to declines in wholesale and fixed voice revenue
  • 18. Mobile: the number of 5G connections will grow rapidly once 5G handsets become more widely available and 5G network coverage grows
  • 19. Mobile: growth in the number of connections will be the main driver of revenue growth because mobile ARPU will remain largely constant
  • 20. Mobile: low levels of competition in the mobile segment will lead to slow but stable growth in mobile revenue during the forecast period
  • 21. Fixed: fixed revenue will grow during the forecast period despite a large decline in voice revenue, mainly due to growth in the number of NGA connections
  • 22. Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU will increase between 2018 and 2024 due to a lack of competition and because consumers are willing to pay more for faster services
  • 23. Fixed: fixed broadband will be the main driver of revenue growth in the fixed segment thanks to growth in both ARPU and household penetration
  • 24. Specialist business services: enterprise business revenue growth will be driven by revenue from non-operators that provide other business services
  • 25. IoT: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow considerably over the forecast period, but connectivity revenue will only account for a small proportion
  • 26. Pay TV: cord-cutting will continue in North America, and traditional pay-TV service revenue will decline
  • 27. Individual country forecasts
  • 28. Canada: the total service revenue will continue to grow, driven by a lack of competition in the fixed broadband market
  • 29. Canada: the number of fixed broadband connections will continue to increase as operators expand their networks to underserved areas
  • 30. Canada: the lack of challengers to the established operators will keep fixed broadband ASPU at a high level, but mobile ARPU growth will be limited
  • 31. Canada: forecast changes
  • 32. USA: the mobile sector will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth thanks to an increase in mobile penetration during the forecast period
  • 33. USA: fixed broadband ASPU is forecast to grow between 2018 and 2024, mostly because of the low level of competition in the market
  • 34. USA: the potential merger between T-Mobile and Sprint is creating a lot of uncertainty in the market and may lead to a decline in competition
  • 35. USA: forecast changes
  • 36. Methodology
  • 37. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 38. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 39. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology (1)
  • 40. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology (2)
  • 41. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 42. About the authors
  • 43. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 44. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 45. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, North America, 2018--2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2018 and 2024
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, North America
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2014--2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2014--2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2014--2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2014--2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, USA, 2014--2024
  • Figure 45a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 45b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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