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Market Research Report

Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

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Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
Published: December 20, 2019 Content info: 42 Slides
Description

"Fixed broadband revenue will increase at a CAGR of 6.1% between 2018 and 2024, driven by the rapid adoption of NGA-based and 4G/5G BFWA services."

The telecoms sector in Latin America (LATAM) will grow slowly within the forecast period, driven by mobile data services and increased next-generation access (NGA) adoption. This report provides a full update of our 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for LATAM as a whole and for six key countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Latin America
    (LATAM)

Countries modelled individually

  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9.Revenue from mobile handsets, fixed broadband and pay TV will be the main driver of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America
  • 10.The telecoms retail revenue in Latin America will increase, but at a slower rate than the GDP
  • 11.Geographical coverage: NGA and 4G/5G connectivity will increase considerably across the region thanks to strong investments from operators
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 14.Market context: growth in the telecoms sector in Latin America will be limited, despite continuing economic recovery
  • 15.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 16.Key drivers at a glance for each Latin America market
  • 17.Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue growth will mainly be supported by network investments
  • 18.Mobile: prepaid-to-contract migration and increasing data usage will help operators to maintain a stable mobile blended ARPU
  • 19.Mobile: mobile penetration will decline further as subscribers continue to abandon multiple prepaid SIMs in favour of one contract connection
  • 20.Mobile: 5G services will not be launched in LATAM until 2021
  • 21.Fixed: NGA share of connections will increase significantly between 2018 and 2024
  • 22.Fixed: both fixed broadband ASPU and the number of fixed broadband connections will increase due to network investments
  • 23.Fixed: fixed broadband revenue will increase in Latin America as subscribers switch from DSL to more-expensive cable, fibre and BFWA services
  • 24.Specialist business services: dedicated connections revenue, as well as revenue from other business services, will increase during the forecast period
  • 25.IoT: revenue from the IoT value chain in LATAM will double between 2018 and 2024, but it will still only account for a small fraction of the telecoms retail revenue
  • 26.Pay TV: the market will continue to be dominated by cable and DTH; operators' activities in the OTT market will be limited during the forecast period
  • 27.Individual country forecasts
  • 28.Argentina: revenue will decline rapidly (excluding inflation) over the forecast period due to the strong negative effect of the economic crisis
  • 29.Argentina: the economic instability is slowing down the adoption of new technologies because consumers have less income to spend on upgrades
  • 30.Argentina: the Argentinian economy is going through a serious crisis, which is having a strong, negative effect on the telecoms sector
  • 31.Argentina: forecast changes
  • 32.Brazil: the total telecoms retail revenue will continue to grow, supported by an increase in mobile handset and fixed broadband revenue
  • 33.Brazil: 4G/5G will account for over 90% of all mobile connections in 2024, leading to an increase in data usage and the contract share of connections
  • 34.Brazil: increased fibre coverage will be the main driver of total telecoms retail revenue growth
  • 35.Brazil: forecast changes
  • 36.Chile: retail revenue will remain stable throughout the forecast period, mainly due to an increase in fixed broadband revenue
  • 37.Chile: the number of fibre connections will nearly double during the forecast period
  • 38.Chile: telecoms service revenue growth will mainly be driven by network investments, both in the mobile and fixed segments
  • 39.Chile: forecast changes
  • 40.Colombia: fixed broadband revenue will be the main driver of total telecoms retail revenue growth
  • 41.Colombia: mobile data traffic per connection will quintuple between 2018 and 2024, driven by a growing 4G/5G share of mobile connections
  • 42.Colombia: fixed broadband ASPU will increase due to the fast adoption of NGA
  • 43.Colombia: forecast changes
  • 44.Mexico: mobile handset revenue is expected to grow due to an increase in the data usage; IoT revenue is expected to grow substantially by 2024
  • 45.Mexico: data usage is set to increase rapidly due to growth in the 4G share of connections
  • 46.Mexico: fixed broadband revenue will increase, driven by a growing NGA footprint
  • 47.Mexico: forecast changes
  • 48.Peru: both the fixed and mobile sectors will contribute to revenue growth as the country becomes more digitalized
  • 49.Peru: the 4G share of connections will grow quickly in the forecast period, leading to an increase in data usage
  • 50.Peru: public and private investments are expected to drive the digitalisation of Peru
  • 51.Peru: forecast changes
  • 52.Methodology
  • 53.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 54.Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 55.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 56.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 57.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 58.About the authors
  • 59.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 60.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 61.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Latin America, 2018--2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2018 and 2024
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, Latin America
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2014--2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2014--2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2014--2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2014--2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2014--2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2014--2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2014--2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2014--2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2014--2024
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2014--2024
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2014--2024
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2014--2024
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2014--2024
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2014--2024
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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