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Market Research Report

FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2018-2025

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 778059
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FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2018-2025
Published: January 23, 2019 Content info: 17 Slides
Description

"The subscriber conversion rate for premises passed worldwide by next-generation access will increase from 69% at the end of 2018 to 78% at the end of 2025."

Operators that are investing in next-generation access (NGA) networks need to understand what rate of take-up they can realistically expect to achieve. Not all investments will pay off, but Analysys Mason takes a generally positive view of robust growth in overall NGA conversion rates worldwide.

This report analyses and forecasts conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed) for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2018-2025.

Key metrics covered in this report

  • Conversion rates (that is, premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
  • Connection numbers
  • Connection rate of premises passed

Split by architecture/technology:

  • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split by incumbent and alternative operator)
  • Cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1

Geographical coverage

The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.

Western Europe

  • Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.

Central and Eastern Europe

  • Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.

Middle East and North Africa

  • Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.

Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.

Emerging Asia-Pacific

  • China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.

Developed Asia-Pacific

  • Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.

North America

  • Canada, USA.

Latin America

  • Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. The conversion rate for next-generation access technology will level off over the forecast period and will even decline slightly in North America
  • 9. NGA operators can minimise the threat posed by substitution from mobile handset offers
  • 10. There is, to date, limited evidence that fixed-wireless access is competing effectively with wireline NGA
  • 11. Cable broadband continues to show robust performance despite increased FTTx competition
  • 12. In Western Europe, new FTTP entrants have the potential to achieve strong conversion rates
  • 13. Incumbents in Western Europe will be doing well if they achieve FTTx take-up rates of 50% by 2025
  • 14. Total fixed broadband net additions in emerging markets may accelerate significantly after the introduction of NGA
  • 15. Many new fibre entrants in emerging markets have, to date, found it challenging to generate significant take-up
  • 16. Regional trends
  • 17. Western Europe
  • 18. NGA conversion rates in Western Europe will grow rapidly throughout the forecast period
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 20. NGA take-up for individual operators in CEE has been diluted by the presence of multiple overlapping networks
  • 21. Middle East and North Africa
  • 22. FTTP take-up rates vary significantly across Gulf markets, which reflects the maturity of different deployments
  • 23. Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 24. FTTP conversion rates have generally been good for new-entrant operators in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 25. China
  • 26. FTTP conversion rates in China continue to show strong growth, but this growth will necessarily slow over the forecast period
  • 27. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 28. Overall growth in the number of NGA subscribers in EMAP is generally strong, but this does not necessarily translate into a positive business case for all operators.
  • 29. Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 30. Wireless substitution is placing some constraints on NGA subscriber conversion rates in DVAP
  • 31. North America
  • 32. 5G fixed-wireless deployments will be responsible for declines in the number of subscribers of cable broadband and incumbent FTTx technologies in North America
  • 33. Latin America
  • 34. Evidence suggests there is no guarantee of success for fibre deployments in the LATAM region
  • 35. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 36. Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 region
  • 37. Definitions
  • 38. About author and Analysys Mason
  • 39. About the author
  • 40. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 41. Research for Analysys Mason
  • 42. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2013-2025
  • Figure 2: NGA conversion rates by region, 2013-2025
  • Figure 3: Fixed broadband household penetration in Netherlands and Taiwan, 2Q 2012-2Q 2018
  • Figure 4: New Zealand fixed broadband connections by technology, 2Q 2014-2Q 2018
  • Figure 5: Cable and NGA connections and year-on-year change in cable connections, 2013-2025
  • Figure 6: Western European non-incumbent FTTP conversion rates, 2016-2025
  • Figure 7: Western European incumbent FTTx conversion rates, 2016-2025
  • Figure 8: Indonesia fixed broadband subscribers by technology and fixed broadband net additions, 2008-2017
  • Figure 9: Non-incumbent FTTP take up rates by selected emerging market, 2015-2025
  • Figure 10: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Western Europe, 2016-2025
  • Figure 11: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2016-2025
  • Figure 12: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2025
  • Figure 13: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2025
  • Figure 14: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2025
  • Figure 15: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2025
  • Figure 16: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2025
  • Figure 17: Active connections per premises, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2025
  • Figure 18: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2016-2025
  • Figure 19: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2016-2025
  • Figure 20: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
  • Figure 21: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
  • Figure 22: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
  • Figure 23: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
  • Figure 24: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2016-2025
  • Figure 25: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2016-2025
  • Figure 26: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2016-2025
  • Figure 27: Active Connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2016-2025
  • Figure 28: Countries covered in this report, by region
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