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Market Research Report

Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

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Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
Published: February 7, 2020 Content info: 49 Slides
Description

"The increase in telecoms service revenue worldwide will be driven by growth in mobile handset revenue, with a modest contribution from 5G services, and fixed broadband revenue from developing nations."

Operators are focusing on 5G and next-generation fixed broadband technologies because saturated markets will limit the growth from legacy sources of mobile and fixed revenue. This report examines telecoms trends on a global and regional level and provides key insights into the future of these markets.

This report and data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the worldwide telecoms markets and for eight regions
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each geographical region, and a worldwide summary
  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-regional comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Worldwide totals are refreshed every time any of the regional results are updated.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

  Region modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

  Connections

  Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

  Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

  Revenue

  Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

  Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 9. Executive summary
  • 10. Growth in the global telecoms service revenue will be driven by growth in both the number of fixed broadband connections and mobile handset data revenue
  • 11. Retail revenue growth will be limited or negative in developed regions, but emerging markets' retail revenue will continue to grow at a healthy rate
  • 12. Geographical coverage: the 4G/5G share of mobile connections in North merica and developed Asia Pacific will reach 100% by 2024
  • 13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross country comparison
  • 15. Market context: the telecoms share of GDP ranges from 1.4% in CEE to 2.0% in SSA
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each region
  • 18. Market overview: growth in fixed broadband and mobile handset revenue will drive the total telecoms service revenue growth
  • 19. Mobile: the 5G share of mobile connections will reach 22% worldwide by 2024
  • 20. Mobile: market competition will prevent mobile ARPU from rising during the forecast period, despite the boost due to new 5G connections
  • 21. Mobile: operators will have to find new sources of revenue growth due to saturated markets in developed regions and high levels of mobile competition
  • 22. Fixed: the FTTP/B share of fixed broadband connections will increase from 56% in 2019 to 64% in 2024
  • 23. Fixed: North America will be the only region with significant fixed broadband ASPU growth due to its limited market competition
  • 24. Fixed: fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow in developing regions; operators in developed markets will focus on the consumer experience
  • 25. Specialist business services: revenue from all segments of business services will grow during the forecast period; IT service providers will dominate the market
  • 26. IoT: the total number of IoT connections worldwide will grow sevenfold between 2018 and 2028 to reach 5.3 billion
  • 27. Pay TV: growth in pay TV revenue will primarily be driven by OTT video services as revenue from traditional pay TV will begin to decline
  • 28. Individual country forecasts
  • 29. Western Europe: the total revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services and intense competition in the mobile market
  • 30. Western Europe: blended mobile ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to growing data usage and customers' migration to contract plans
  • 31. Western Europe: the total telecoms service revenue will grow only slightly because only the fixed broadband market offers potential for significant revenue growth
  • 32. Western Europe: forecast changes
  • 33. Central and Eastern Europe: telecoms service revenue growth will be driven by the demand for data and the monetisation of network investments
  • 34. Central and Eastern Europe: mobile ARPU will increase, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in mobile data usage
  • 35. Central and Eastern Europe: total revenue growth will be driven by a rise in the number of mobile contract subscriptions and increasing fixed broadband coverage
  • 36. Central and Eastern Europe: forecast changes
  • 37. Emerging Asia Pacific: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to grow as penetration increases
  • 38. Emerging Asia Pacific: monthly data consumption per connection will more than triple during 2019 2024
  • 39. Emerging Asia Pacific: rising levels of competition and regulatory pressure will limit the growth in mobile ARPU and fixed broadband ASPU
  • 40. Emerging Asia Pacific: forecast changes
  • 41. Developed Asia Pacific: fixed broadband, IoT and business services revenue will grow, but not by enough to offset declines in legacy services
  • 42. Developed Asia Pacific: the take up of 5G services in DVAP will be rapid thanks to favourable demand side conditions
  • 43. Developed Asia Pacific: operators will focus on rolling out NGA networks and 5G services
  • 44. Developed Asia Pacific: forecast changes
  • 45. Middle East and North Africa: the fast adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services will help to maintain service revenue growth
  • 46. Middle East and North Africa: mobile services will account for most of the telecoms revenue in the region, driven by the fast migration from 3G to 4G
  • 47. Middle East and North Africa: monetising high speed internet and mobile data access will be crucial to achieve telecoms retail revenue growth
  • 48. Middle East and North Africa: forecast changes
  • 49. Sub Saharan Africa: mobile revenue will be the dominant contributor to the total telecoms revenue growth, but fixed broadband revenue will also grow strongly
  • 50. Sub Saharan Africa: the prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
  • 51. Sub Saharan Africa: SSA is a highly mobile centric region with a strong potential for fixed broadband revenue growth
  • 52. Sub Saharan Africa: forecast changes
  • 53. Latin America: mobile handset, fixed broadband and pay TV revenue will be the main drivers of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America
  • 54. Latin America: 4G and 5G will account for a majority of the mobile connections in Latin America by 2024
  • 55. Latin America: fixed broadband revenue will account for the majority of the total telecoms retail revenue, driven by expansions in network coverage
  • 56. Latin America: forecast changes
  • 57. North America: a lack of competition will allow both mobile and fixed service revenue to continue to grow
  • 58. North America: the number of 5G connections will grow rapidly, thanks to an early market launch in the USA
  • 59. North America: fixed broadband will be the main driver of the total telecoms revenue growth, thanks to growth in both ARPU and household penetration
  • 60. North America: forecast changes
  • 61. Methodology
  • 62. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 63. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 64. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 65. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 66. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 67. About the author
  • 68. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 69. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 70. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type, and total service revenue, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, worldwide, 2018--2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2018 and 2024
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide forecasts
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes worldwide
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, worldwide (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, worldwide (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, worldwide (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, worldwide (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, worldwide (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, worldwide (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, worldwide (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, worldwide (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, worldwide (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Western Europe (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia--Pacific (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia--Pacific (billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2014--2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia--Pacific (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2014--2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, emerging Asia--Pacific (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia--Pacific (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2014--2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia--Pacific (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia--Pacific (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia--Pacific, 2014--2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia--Pacific (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, developed Asia--Pacific, 2014--2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, developed Asia--Pacific (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia--Pacific (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia--Pacific (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, developed Asia--Pacific, 2014--2024
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Latin America (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 90: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 91: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 92: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 93: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 94: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 95: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, North America (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 96: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 97: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 98: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 99a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 99b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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