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Market Research Report

Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2020-2025

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 950718
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Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2020-2025
Published: July 24, 2020 Content info: 27 Slides
Description

"About a quarter of the data traffic generated by mobile devices will use 5G networks by 2025, a quarter will use 4G and the other half will use Wi-Fi."

This report provides a detailed outlook on the intensity of traffic on mobile networks, the anticipated impact of 5G and trends in Wi-Fi usage.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic worldwide, in 8 regions and 39 selected countries
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic worldwide and in each region
  • analysis of the impact of 5G on data traffic
  • analysis of the impact of the emergence of fixed-wireless access (FWA) on data traffic
  • discussion about the impact of costs and prices on data traffic
  • analysis of the trends in mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity
  • discussion about the longer-term impact of COVID-19 on network usage.
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Worldwide trends
  • 10. COVID 19: lockdowns stimulated mobile data traffic, but only when end users were dependent on mobile networks at home
  • 11. COVID 19: some service providers have struggled to keep up with demand, but MNOs' expanded lockdown offers tell us about their long term aims
  • 12. Worldwide trends: 5G will provide some short term uplift, but growth rates around the world will eventually settle in the 20 30% per annum range
  • 13. Worldwide trends: early measurements suggest that average usage levels for 5G differ greatly from those for 4G, but they will plateau quickly
  • 14. Worldwide trends: 5G traffic will overtake 4G traffic in 2025
  • 15. Worldwide trends: FWA, and in particular 5G FWA, will thrive only where fixed fibre is uncompetitive or absent and where mobile demand is weak
  • 16. Worldwide trends: handset use of Wi Fi networks is in slow decline relative to that of cellular networks, but Wi Fi data usage overall is still higher than cellular data usage
  • 17. Worldwide trends: gigabit broadband and the allocation of 6GHz spectrum mean that Wi Fi should pull ahead of 5G in terms of performance in most locations
  • 18. Western Europe
  • 19. Western Europe: the overall data usage per connection remained low, but the annual cellular data traffic growth rate was strong in 2019
  • 20. Western Europe: cellular data traffic will be driven by the introduction of 5G handset plans with larger data allowances and faster speeds and 5G FWA
  • 21. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 22. Central and Eastern Europe: the high annual cellular traffic growth rate in Russia in 2019 moderated the ongoing decline in the regional data traffic growth rate
  • 23. Central and Eastern Europe: cellular traffic growth will be modest because the mobile market is saturated and operators in key countries will focus on bundles
  • 24. Middle East and North Africa
  • 25. Middle East and North Africa: cellular data traffic growth slowed down in 2019 because competition in almost all countries remained limited
  • 26. Middle East and North Africa: the annual cellular growth rate will spike at 45% in 2020, driven by the take up of 5G plans
  • 27. Sub Saharan Africa
  • 28. Sub Saharan Africa: cellular data traffic is growing robustly, but the average data usage remains low due to limited 4G network coverage and smartphone penetration
  • 29. Sub Saharan Africa: cellular data traffic growth will be sustained by 4G network expansions and falling prices for data plans
  • 30. Emerging Asia Pacific (excluding China
  • 31. Emerging Asia Pacific (excl. China): the traffic growth continued to be strong in 2019, sustained by a growing take up of 4G plans
  • 32. Emerging Asia Pacific (excl. China): the use of cellular smartphone data as an alternative to wireline connectivity will be the main driver of cellular traffic growth
  • 33. China
  • 34. China: falling prices and significant investments in 4G network roll outs resulted in strong cellular data traffic growth in 2019
  • 35. China: the traffic growth rate will decline as MNOs focus on converged offers to mitigate the intense price competition in the mobile market
  • 36. Developed Asia Pacific
  • 37. Developed Asia Pacific: the overall traffic growth remained almost flat in 2019, but it varied significantly among the countries within the region
  • 38. Developed Asia Pacific: the annual cellular traffic growth rate is expected to peak in 2020 ahead of the entry of new MNOs and the launch of 5G in most countries
  • 39. North America
  • 40. North America: a growing take up of unlimited data plans has boosted the cellular data traffic in the USA since 2018; data usage in Canada has remained low
  • 41. North America: 5G will play a significant role in the cellular data traffic trends in the USA
  • 42. Latin America
  • 43. Latin America: the annual traffic growth rate remained high in 2019, sustained by competition and the wide availability of mobile plans with zero rated services
  • 44. Latin America: there is strong potential for cellular data traffic growth, driven by subscriber migration from 3G to 4G services
  • 45. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 46. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 47. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 48. About the authors
  • 49. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 50. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 51. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Annual cellular data traffic by device type and 5G share of traffic, worldwide, 2018--2025
  • Figure 2: Total data traffic split, worldwide, 2019 and 2025
  • Figure 3: Reported change in mobile data usage since the start of lockdown, selected operators
  • Figure 4: Annual mobile data traffic growth rates by region, worldwide, 2019--2025
  • Figure 5: Average data usage per subscriber by generation, and total year-on-year traffic growth, South Korea, January 2019--April 2020
  • Figure 6: Average 4G and 5G data usage per subscriber by operator, China and South Korea, December 2019
  • Figure 7: Annual cellular data traffic by device type and 5G share of traffic, worldwide, 2018--2025
  • Figure 8: Share of total mobile data traffic by generation, indexed to years after launch, worldwide
  • Figure 9: Annual FWA traffic and average FWA usage per connection, worldwide, 2019--2025
  • Figure 10: Average handset traffic per subscriber, by cellular and Wi-Fi networks, selected countries, worldwide, 2019
  • Figure 11: Total data traffic by technology, worldwide, 2019
  • Figure 12: Spectrum used and the traffic per MHz, mobile and Wi-Fi, 2019
  • Figure 13: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, selected countries, WE, 2017--2020
  • Figure 14: Cellular data traffic per capita per month, by access type, selected countries, WE, 2019
  • Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by country and the 4G and 5G handset shares of traffic, WE, 2017--2025
  • Figure 16: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, selected countries, MENA, 2017--2020
  • Figure 17: Cellular data traffic per capita per month, by access type, selected countries, MENA, 2019
  • Figure 18: Cellular data traffic by country and the 4G and 5G handset shares of traffic, MENA, 2017--2025
  • Figure 19: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, selected countries, SSA, 2017--2020
  • Figure 20: Cellular data traffic per capita per month, by access type, selected countries, SSA, 2019
  • Figure 21: Cellular data traffic by country and the 4G and 5G handset shares of traffic, SSA, 2017--2025
  • Figure 22: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, selected countries, EMAP (excl. China), 2017--2020
  • Figure 23: Cellular data traffic per capita per month, by access type, selected countries, EMAP (excl. China), 2019
  • Figure 24: Cellular data traffic by country and the 4G and 5G handset shares of traffic, EMAP (excl. China), 2017--2025
  • Figure 25: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, China, 2017--2020
  • Figure 26: Cellular data traffic per capita per month, by access type, China, 2019
  • Figure 27: Cellular data traffic and the 4G and 5G handset shares of traffic, China, 2017--2025
  • Figure 28: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, selected countries, DVAP, 2017--2020
  • Figure 29: Cellular data traffic per capita per month, by access type, selected countries, DVAP, 2019
  • Figure 30: Cellular data traffic by country and the 4G and 5G handset shares of traffic, DVAP, 2017--2025
  • Figure 31: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, NA, 2017--2020
  • Figure 32: Cellular data traffic per capita per month, by access type, NA, 2019
  • Figure 33: Cellular data traffic by country and the 4G and 5G handset shares of traffic, NA, 2017--2025
  • Figure 34: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, selected countries, LATAM, 2017--2020
  • Figure 35: Cellular data traffic per capita per month, by access type, selected countries, LATAM, 2019
  • Figure 36: Cellular data traffic by country and the 4G and 5G handset shares of traffic, LATAM, 2017--2025
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