Orforglipron Sales Forecast, and Market Size Analysis - 2034

Key Factors Driving Orforglipron Growth

1. Market Share Gains and New Patient Starts

• Orforglipron is not yet approved, so there are no "market share" numbers or "new patient starts" in the real world-but early clinical and regulatory data suggest strong potential.
• Phase III data (e.g. in ATTAIN-1, ACHIEVE-3) show it competes favorably with existing therapies (especially oral semaglutide), which could help it gain adoption quickly once approved.
• Lilly is preparing manufacturing, regulatory filings globally, anticipating strong demand.

2. Expansion Across Key Indications

• Obesity / Weight Management: Orforglipron's Phase III trial ATTAIN-1 in non-diabetic obese or overweight adults (with weight-related medical conditions) showed clinically meaningful weight loss (up to ~12.4%) vs placebo over ~72 weeks.
• Type 2 Diabetes: In the ACHIEVE-3 trial, it significantly lowered HbA1c more than oral semaglutide at comparable doses, plus produced greater weight loss.
• Cardiometabolic risk factors: Improvements in non-HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, and other markers have been observed.
• Other potential comorbid conditions are being explored (e.g. obesity with related complications) but full indication approvals are pending.

3. Geographic Expansion

• Lilly is planning global filings across the U.S., EU, Japan, China and others.
• As obesity and type 2 diabetes prevalence rises globally, there's scope for strong uptake in developed and emerging markets, especially where injectable GLP-1 therapies are less accessible. The oral, small-molecule nature of Orforglipron helps in that regard.

4. New Indication Approvals

• So far, Orforglipron has not yet been officially approved for any indication.
• Regulatory submissions are expected: weight-management (obesity) filings possibly by end of 2025; Type 2 diabetes likely in 2026.

5. Strong Volume Momentum

• Although volume data are not yet available, the trial data show robust and sustained weight loss over long durations (72 weeks in ATTAIN-1) that could translate into high demand if safety, access, cost align well.
• In the diabetes trials, meaningful weight effects plus A1C reductions may drive dual benefit appeal (i.e. treating diabetes and obesity together).

6. Competitive Differentiation and Market Trends

• Oral small molecule GLP-1 agonist vs injectable peptides: Orforglipron is (non-peptide) small molecule taken once daily, with no requirements for fasting or special water/food restrictions. These features offer convenience and possibly better adherence.
• Efficacy vs existing oral GLP-1s: In head-to-head (ACHIEVE-3) vs oral semaglutide, it produced larger improvements in glucose control (HbA1c) and weight.
• Safety & tolerability: Adverse effects are mostly GI (nausea, vomiting, diarrhea etc.), generally mild-to-moderate; no major safety signals notable so far (e.g. liver) in trial data.
• Regulatory environment & payer interest: Because obesity and type 2 diabetes are recognized large unmet markets, there is likely strong interest from regulators and payers in therapies that are effective, more convenient, possibly less expensive. The oral format could help with access and cost pressures.
• Real-world evidence / long-term durability: One question is how weight loss plateaus over time; trial data indicate some flattening over long duration, as is common with GLP-1s. Monitoring long-term safety & durability will be important.

Orforglipron Recent Developments

• In September 2025, Eli Lilly and Company announced positive topline results from ACHIEVE-3, an open-label randomized Phase III clinical trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of orforglipron compared to oral semaglutide, administered according to approved label instructions, in 1,698 adults with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with metformin. The 52-week trial compared orforglipron (12 mg and 36 mg) to oral semaglutide (7 mg and 14 mg) across four active treatment arms to assess glycemic control and weight loss. At 52 weeks, orforglipron met the primary and all key secondary endpoints across each dose comparison vs. oral semaglutide, delivering greater improvements in A1C and weight.
• In August 2025, Eli Lilly and Company announced positive topline results from the Phase III ATTAIN-2 trial, evaluating orforglipron, an investigational oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, in adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes. In the trial, all three doses of orforglipron met the primary and all key secondary endpoints, delivering significant weight loss, meaningful A1C reductions, and improvements in cardiometabolic risk factors at 72 weeks. For the primary endpoint, orforglipron 36 mg, taken once per day without food and water restrictions, lowered weight by an average of 10.5% (22.9 lbs) compared to 2.2% (5.1 lbs) with placebo using the efficacy estimand. With the completion of ATTAIN-2, Lilly now has the full clinical data package required to initiate global regulatory submissions for orforglipron.

"Orforglipron Sales Forecast, and Market Size Analysis - 2034" report provides comprehensive insights of Orforglipron for potential indications like Hypertension, Obesity, Sleep apnoea syndrome and Type 2 diabetes mellitus in the 7MM. A detailed picture of Orforglipron's existing usage in anticipated entry and performance in potential indications in the 7MM, i.e., the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan for the study period 2020 -2034 is provided in this report along with a detailed description of the Orforglipron for potential indications. The Orforglipron market report provides insights about Orforglipron's sales forecast, mechanism of action (MoA), dosage and administration, as well as research and development including regulatory milestones, along with other developmental activities. Further, it also consists of historical and current Orforglipron performance, future market assessments inclusive of the Orforglipron market forecast analysis for potential indications in the 7MM, SWOT, analysts' views, comprehensive overview of market competitors, and brief about other emerging therapies in respective indications. It also provides analysis of Orforglipron sales forecasts, along with factors driving its market.

Orforglipron Drug Summary

Orforglipron is an investigational, once-daily small molecule (non-peptide) oral glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist that can be taken any time of the day without restrictions on food and water intake. Orforglipron was discovered by Chugai Pharmaceutical and licensed by Lilly in 2018. Chugai and Lilly published the preclinical pharmacology data of this molecule together. Lilly is running Phase III studies on Orforglipron for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and for weight management in adults with obesity or overweight with at least one weight-related medical problem. It is also being studied as a potential treatment for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and hypertension in adults with obesity. The report provides Orforglipron's sales, growth barriers and drivers, post usage and approvals in multiple indications.

Orforglipron is in the Phase III stage of clinical development for the treatment of patients with Hypertension (NCT06948422), Obesity (NCT05931380), Sleep apnoea syndrome (NCT06649045), and Type 2 diabetes mellitus (NCT06010004).

Scope of the Orforglipron Market Report

The report provides insights into:

• A comprehensive product overview including the Orforglipron MoA, description, dosage and administration, research and development activities in potential indications like Hypertension, Obesity, Sleep apnoea syndrome and Type 2 diabetes mellitus.
• Elaborated details on Orforglipron regulatory milestones and other development activities have been provided in Orforglipron market report.
• The report also highlights Orforglipron's cost estimates and regional variations, reported and estimated sales performance, research and development activities in potential indications across the United States, Europe, and Japan.
• The Orforglipron market report also covers the patents information, generic entry and impact on cost cut.
• The Orforglipron market report contains current and forecasted Orforglipron sales for potential indications till 2034.
• Comprehensive coverage of the late-stage emerging therapies for respective indications.
• The Orforglipron market report also features the SWOT analysis with analyst views for Orforglipron in potential indications.

Methodology:

The Orforglipron market report is built using data and information sourced primarily from internal databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by DelveInsight's team of industry experts. Information and data from the secondary sources have been obtained from various printable and nonprintable sources like search engines, news websites, global regulatory authorities websites, trade journals, white papers, magazines, books, trade associations, industry associations, industry portals and access to available databases.

Orforglipron Analytical Perspective by DelveInsight

• In-depth Orforglipron Market Assessment

This Orforglipron sales market forecast report provides a detailed market assessment of Orforglipron for potential indications like Hypertension, Obesity, Sleep apnoea syndrome and Type 2 diabetes mellitus in the seven major markets, i.e., the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan. This segment of the report provides current and forecasted Orforglipron sales data uptil 2034.

• Orforglipron Clinical Assessment

The Orforglipron market report provides the clinical trials information of Orforglipron for potential indications covering trial interventions, trial conditions, trial status, start and completion dates.

Orforglipron Competitive Landscape

The report provides Insights on competitors and marketed products within the domain, along with a summary of emerging products and their respective launch dates, posing significant competition in the market.

Orforglipron Market Potential & Revenue Forecast

• Projected market size for the Orforglipron and its key indications
• Estimated Orforglipron sales potential (Orforglipron peak sales forecasts)
• Orforglipron Pricing strategies and reimbursement landscape

Orforglipron Competitive Intelligence

• Number of competing drugs in development (pipeline analysis)
• Orforglipron Market positioning compared to existing treatments
• Orforglipron Strengths & weaknesses relative to competitors

Orforglipron Regulatory & Commercial Milestones

• Orforglipron Key regulatory approvals & expected launch timelines
• Commercial partnerships, licensing deals, and M&A activity

Orforglipron Clinical Differentiation

• Orforglipron Efficacy & safety advantages over existing drugs
• Orforglipron Unique selling points

Orforglipron Market Report Highlights

• In the coming years, the Orforglipron market scenario is set to change due to strong adoption, increased prescriptions and broader uptake in multiple immunological indications; which would expand the size of the market.
• The Orforglipron companies are developing therapies that focus on novel approaches to treat/improve the disease condition, assess challenges, and seek opportunities that could influence Orforglipron's dominance.
• Other emerging products for Hypertension, Obesity, Sleep apnoea syndrome and Type 2 diabetes mellitus are expected to give tough market competition to Orforglipron and launch of late-stage emerging therapies in the near future will significantly impact the market.
• A detailed description of regulatory milestones, and developmental activities, provide the current development scenario of Orforglipron in potential indications.
• Analyse Orforglipron cost, pricing trends and market positioning to support strategic decision-making in the immunology landscape.
• Our in-depth analysis of the forecasted Orforglipron sales data uptil 2034 will support the clients in decision-making process regarding their therapeutic portfolio by identifying the overall scenario of Orforglipron in potential indications.

Key Questions:

• What is the class of therapy, route of administration and mechanism of action of Orforglipron? How strong is Orforglipron's clinical and commercial performance?
• What is Orforglipron's clinical trial status in each individual indications such as Hypertension, Obesity, Sleep apnoea syndrome and Type 2 diabetes mellitus and study completion date?
• What are the key collaborations, mergers and acquisitions, licensing and other activities related to the Orforglipron Manufacturers?
• What are the key designations that have been granted to Orforglipron for potential indications? How are they going to impact Orforglipron's penetration in various geographies?
• What is the current and forecasted Orforglipron market scenario for potential indications? What are the key assumptions behind the forecast?
• What are the current and forecasted sales of Orforglipron in the seven major countries, including the United States, Europe (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan?
• What are the other emerging products available and how are these giving competition to Orforglipron for potential indications?
• Which are the late-stage emerging therapies under development for the treatment of potential indications?
• How cost-effective is Orforglipron? What is the duration of therapy and what are the geographical variations in cost per patient?