Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in EU 27: Long Haul-Hub to Hub

Description

Future TAAM Growth Potential of 1,167btkm with 206K Long-haul Driverless Trucks Operational on the European Ten-Ts by 2040

Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operations could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but "by when?" and "starting where?" remain key questions.

In this study, the objective is to derive the total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption in the addressable market (SAAM). To achieve this, Frost & Sullivan has developed a detailed model built bottom-up and consisting of an overlay of the 1154 NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics, NUTS) regions and the 9 Ten-Ts (Trans European Transport Network) as the base upon which multiple autonomous factors are applied. Then each of these corridors were applied an autonomous score, based on which they were segregated into three different phases of implementation (Phase 1, 2023-2028; Phase 2, 2029-2034; Phase 3, 2035-2040). Then, the TAAM and SAAM derived (by phase) to understand the total market potential of L4 autonomous trucks in EU over the next two decades.

Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, ~30,600 kms of road length could be autonomous ready; this covers a total addressable autonomous freight market (TAAM) of ~1,167 billion ton-km and nearly 206k driverless long-haul trucks could be operational on European roads.

Product Code: PE81-42

Strategic Imperatives

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Level 4 (L4) Autonomous Truck Market
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

Levels of Vehicle Automation
Benefits of High-level Vehicle Automation
Different Territorial Avenues for Automation
Research Scope
Autonomous Technology Segmentation
The L4 Autonomous Industry in Europe, 2023
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Growth Metrics

L4 Autonomous Market Potential in EU 27, 2023-2040: Forecast Assumptions

Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)
Trans-European Transport Network (Ten-T)
L4 Autonomous Trucks: Forecast Logic

Overview of the Ten-T Corridor

The Atlantic Corridor
The Baltic-Adriatic Corridor
The Mediterranean Corridor
The North Sea-Mediterranean Corridor
The North Sea- Baltic Corridor
The Orient-East Med Corridor
The Rhine-Danube Corridor
The Rhine-Alpine Corridor
The Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor
NUTS-3 Ten-T Overlay

Factors Influencing Autonomous Readiness

Freight Intensity
Economic Activity
Safety
Weather
Truck OEM Base

Autonomous Score by Corridor

Autonomous Score: The Atlantic Corridor
Autonomous Score: The Baltic-Adriatic Corridor
Autonomous Score: The Mediterranean Corridor
Autonomous Score: The North Sea-Mediterranean Corridor
Autonomous Score: The North Sea-Baltic Corridor
Autonomous Score: The Orient-East Med Corridor
Autonomous Score: The Rhine-Danube Corridor
Autonomous Score: The Rhine-Alpine Corridor
Autonomous Score: The Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor

Autonomous Readiness: Corridor Segregation by Phase

Ten-T Corridors: Top Autonomous Scores
Phase 1: 2023-2028
Phase 2: 2029-2034
Phase 3: 2035-2040
Summary of Corridor Segregation by Phase

Forecast: TAAM, SAAM & Units in operation

Total Autonomous Addressable Market (TAAM)
Share of Autonomous Adoption in Addressable Market (SAAM)
Level 4 Autonomous Long Trucks: Unit-in-Operation Forecast

Conclusion

Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Fleet Owner Partnership Pilots
Growth Opportunity 2: Autonomous Freight
Growth Opportunity 3: Application and Operation Expansion

Next Steps

Your Next Steps
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