CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck Industry, United States, 2024-2040

Clean H2 Production Sources and the Adoption of H2 ICE as an Intermediate Solution are Driving Transformational Growth by Significantly Reducing CO2 Emissions

In this study, Frost & Sullivan offers a comprehensive exploration of the carbon dioxide (CO2) trail of a hydrogen internal combustion engine (H2 ICE) truck by investigating the carbon emission implications, focusing on H2 as a prospective fuel for the trucking industry in the United States. Our analysis begins with the rationale for considering H2, highlighting its potential to mitigate life cycle emissions compared to conventional fuels.

We delve into various H2 production methods, ranging from grey H2 to renewable sources, each carrying distinct carbon footprints. Emphasis falls on the CO2 emissions associated with manufacturing H2 ICE vehicles, pinpointing significant contributions from components, including the H2 engine and storage tanks. Frost & Sullivan also projects total CO2 emissions throughout the operation of a truck, drawing comparative insights with its battery electric, fuel cell electric, and diesel truck counterparts.

Ultimately, this study underscores the urgency of transitioning to cleaner H2 production methods and optimizing vehicle manufacturing to achieve substantial CO2 emission reductions in the trucking industry.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck Industry

Transformative Megatrends

Why

• Clean transportation is gaining momentum as a megatrend, with new mobility models shaping the industry's future.
• Various types of clean transportation, such as hydrogen internal combustion engine (H2 ICE) vehicles, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), are gaining traction.

Frost Perspective

• The trucking industry's adoption of near-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emission powertrains, such as H2 ICE, will largely depend on the cost of ownership, the state of the H2 infrastructure, and government support.
• Industry transformation will lead to the emergence of new players and disruption among existing players.

Industry Convergence

Why

• A life cycle CO2 emission assessment brings different industry segments together. Energy sourcing companies, H2 generation plants, fuel transportation operators, and fuel dispensing outlets must collaborate to ensure the carbon trail for an H2 ICE remains minimal.

Frost Perspective

• Regulatory authorities must lay out CO2 tracking plans to ensure all industry players understand the importance of achieving total life cycle CO2 neutrality. A few countries have begun rolling out regulations to track CO2 emissions; Frost & Sullivan expects the United States and Europe to lead the regulatory environment by 2030.

Geopolitical Chaos

Why

• The life cycle assessment of zero-emission trucks goes beyond borders. For example, Australia and the Republic of the Congo mine minerals for batteries, China refines the minerals, South Korea assembles the batteries, and the final vehicles operate in the United States. As such, stakeholders must ensure carbon neutrality across the global supply chain.

Frost Perspective

• Truck original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and regulatory authorities must plan for global supply chain constraints, with a push toward local manufacturing to ensure more control of the complete process and avoid geopolitical impacts on the transition to clean-energy transportation.

Research Scope

Content Present in Points

• Base Year: 2023
• Study Period: 2023-2030 (purchase years); 2023-2036 (user years)
• Forecast Period: 2024-2030 (purchase years); 2024-2036 (user years), H2 adoption forecast until 2040
• Market: Zero-emission trucks
• Segment: Medium-duty trucks (MDTs) and heavy-duty trucks (HDTs)
• User Cycle: User cycle refers to the usage years (first life); the study illustrates cycles A and H
• Program Area: Mobility
• Geographic Scope: United States: California, Texas, and the Southwest (Arizona and New Mexico combined)

Growth Drivers

CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck: Growth Drivers, US, 2024-2037

• Shift Toward Clean Energy Generation: The source of H2 production is an important factor impacting CO2 emissions. The United States depends heavily on NG, and the move toward renewable sources will positively impact CO2 emissions.
• Ease of Long-range Driving and Refueling: With specialized H2 infrastructure, refueling a truck's H2 tank with gaseous H2 takes only a few minutes, significantly shorter than the extended recharge period for BEVs. In many use cases, the present generation of H2 ICE vehicles already has good fuel efficiency, making them economically appealing to fleet operators.
• Minimal Change to the Automotive Ecosystem: Mild modification to the powertrain and aftertreatment system, in addition to minimal change to the existing supply chain, is an added boost to the adoption of H2 ICE technology.
• Comparable Upfront Cost: The upfront cost of acquiring an H2 ICE truck is significantly lower than that of BEV or FCEV options and is more similar to that of conventional ICE vehicles.

Growth Restraints

CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck: Growth Restraints, US, 2024-2037

• Restraint Cost of H2
• Inadequate Refueling Infrastructure
• Indirect Emissions
• Safety Concerns