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PUBLISHER: Frost & Sullivan | PRODUCT CODE: 1763036

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PUBLISHER: Frost & Sullivan | PRODUCT CODE: 1763036

Transformations in Global Commodity Prices, 2025-2030

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PAGES: 36 Pages
DELIVERY TIME: 1-2 business days
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Expected Short-term Commodity Price Declines Could Reverse if Trump 2.0 Policies Lead to Potential Oversupply

The next 5 years will be a defining period for global commodity markets, shaped by geopolitical upheavals, trade restrictions, and technological advancements. Supply chain disruptions-from sanctions on Russian oil and gas to Red Sea shipping bottlenecks-are driving volatility across key commodities, while protectionist policies, including US tariffs on metals and China's export bans on critical minerals, are reshaping global trade flows. At the same time, businesses are rapidly adapting, diversifying their sourcing strategies, securing long-term supply contracts, and integrating advanced technologies to enhance market resilience. As the world transitions to a lower-carbon economy, the increasing demand for lithium, copper, and rare earths is creating new pricing dynamics, impacting everything, from renewable energy projects to semiconductor production.

This thought leadership piece examines the macroeconomic forces, technological breakthroughs, and policy shifts that will shape commodity price movements through 2030. It explores how AI-driven predictive models are transforming price forecasting, how automation and blockchain are optimizing trading and logistics, and how environmental regulations are reshaping supply chains. Energy transition is accelerating cross-sector convergence, with oil and mining giants diversifying into renewables and electric vehicle supply chains. The study also provides a forward-looking price forecasting framework, leveraging correlation models and scenario-based analysis to anticipate market fluctuations under different geopolitical and economic conditions.

As commodity markets become increasingly complex, businesses must move beyond traditional forecasting methods and adopt data-driven, multi-commodity strategies. The coming years will require a deeper understanding of interdependencies across industries, proactive risk management against geopolitical shocks, and a more agile approach to supply chain resilience. By providing strategic insights into these transformations, this study equips global clients with the knowledge required to navigate uncertainty and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Product Code: PFT7-90

Table of Contents

Research Scope

  • Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

  • Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8
  • The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Commodity Industry

Growth Generator

  • Commodity Pricing: Key Drivers and Restraints
  • Emerging Trends Shaping Future Commodity Supply Chains

Ecosystem

  • Commodity Price Predictive Modeling: A Three-step Framework
  • Step 1: Correlation Analysis-Choice of Indicators
  • Step 1: Correlation Analysis-Interdependency Mapping
  • Step 2: Regression Analysis-Identification of the Predictor Kit
  • Step 3: Commodity Price Forecasting Scenarios 2025-2030-Framework
  • Step 3: Commodity Price Forecasting Methodology by Scenarios

Growth Generator

  • Iron Price Forecast Analysis: Regression Insights
  • Visioning Scenarios: Iron Price Forecast, 2025-2030
  • Iron Price Movement Impact: Key Countries
  • Aluminum Price Forecast Analysis: Regression Insights
  • Visioning Scenarios: Aluminum Price Forecast, 2025-2030
  • Aluminum Price Movement Impact: Key Countries
  • Copper Price Forecast Analysis: Regression Insights
  • Visioning Scenarios: Copper Price Forecast, 2025-2030
  • Copper Price Movement Impact: Key Countries
  • Crude Oil Price Forecast Analysis: Regression Insights
  • Visioning Scenarios: Crude Oil Price Forecast, 2025-2030
  • Crude Oil Price Movement Impact: Key Countries
  • Natural Gas Price Forecast Analysis: Regression Insights
  • Visioning Scenarios: Natural Gas Price Forecast, 2025-2030
  • Natural Gas Price Movement Impact: Key Countries

Growth Opportunity Universe

  • Growth Opportunity 1: Copper Production Localization Efforts
  • Growth Opportunity 2: Non-OPEC Crude Oil Output Boost
  • Growth Opportunity 3: Robust LNG Supply Growth

Appendix

  • X-variable Definition
  • X-variable Historical Data and Forecast
  • Regression Analysis: Different Elements

Next Steps

  • Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
  • Next Steps
  • List of Exhibits
  • Legal Disclaimer
Have a question?
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Jeroen Van Heghe

Manager - EMEA

+32-2-535-7543

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Christine Sirois

Manager - Americas

+1-860-674-8796

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