Global Light Commercial Vehicle and Medium & High-duty Truck Market Outlook, 2025

Description

Robust Sales in Emerging Markets Mitigate the Effects of the Degrowth in North America and Europe

The global commercial vehicle market witnessed a decline in sales volumes in 2024, more so in the medium and heavy-duty truck segments than in light commercial vehicles (LCVs). Various regional markets had an oversupply, leading to a fall in truck demand. ASEAN, China, and India experienced a significant decline in LCV sales volumes, following strong growth in recent years. Poor demand for commercial vehicles in rural areas and lower consumption in urban areas due to businesses implementing cost-cutting measures amid unstable global macroeconomics were the leading contributors. In addition, high interest rates, rising geopolitical tensions, and excess supply all led to growing uncertainty. This dampened business sentiment and resulted in muted demand for trucks. Any incremental purchases or even truck replacements at the fleet end were put on hold.

Counter-tariffs from countries in response to the imposition of tariffs by the United States have made the global economy, trade, and logistics unpredictable in 2025. This is expected to have a significant impact on the overall freight movement and the cost of raw materials, goods, and components, affecting vehicle demand.

Apart from Mexico, most countries have limited exposure to US trade. Given the stance of the new US administration, the Environmental Protection Agency's Phase 3 greenhouse gas regulations are expected to be diluted or pushed back by a few years. This is expected to result in a setback to the sales of electrified commercial vehicles. Europe, too, with a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) investments and difficulty in achieving previously set targets, is expected to push back some of its existing EV-related targets by at least a couple of years.

However, India, ASEAN, and Latin America are projected to sustain growth in commercial vehicle sales in 2025. Stronger macroeconomics, improving business sentiments, and the revival of consumption are likely to be the major drivers of growth.

The study period is 2024-2025, with 2024 as the base year and 2025 as the forecast period. The geographic scope is North America, Latin America, Europe, India, ASEAN, and China.

Product Code: PFUD-42

Strategic Imperatives

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Light Commercial Vehicle and Medium & High-duty Truck Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM

Growth Environment

Top Commercial Vehicle Trends
A Recap of 2024
Top 5 Predictions for 2025
LCV Market
MD&HD Truck Market

Ecosystem

Research Scope
Market Segmentation

Global Economic Outlook, 2025

Top 10 Growth Opportunities
Top 10 Trends for 2025
Global GDP Growth Snapshot
Trend 1: Global GDP Growth
Growth Opportunity 1: Global GDP Growth
Trend 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
Growth Opportunity 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
Trend 3: Oil Markets
Growth Opportunity 3: Oil Markets
Trend 4: Labor Market
Growth Opportunity 4: Labor Market
Trend 5: US Dollar and Gold
Growth Opportunity 5: US Dollar and Gold
Trend 6: North America
Growth Opportunity 6: North America
Trend 7: Latin America
Growth Opportunity 7: Latin America
Trend 8: Western Europe
Growth Opportunity 8: Western Europe
Trend 9: Middle East
Growth Opportunity 9: Middle East
Trend 10: Asia
Growth Opportunity 10: Asia

Growth Generator: LCV Market Outlook

Market Forecast
Market Forecast by Region and Vehicle Category
LCV OEM Sales Performance
Powertrain Technology Forecast
Key OEMs' Anticipated eLCV Launches

Growth Generator: MD&HD Truck Market Outlook

Market Forecast
Market Forecast by Region and Category
MD&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
Powertrain Technology Forecast
Key OEMs' Anticipated eMD&HD Truck Launches

Growth Generator: North America

Market Outlook
LCV Market
MD&HD Truck Market
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: Europe

Market Outlook
LCV Market
MD&HD Truck Market
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: China

Market Outlook
LCV Market
MD&HD Truck Market
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: India

Market Outlook
LCV Market
MD&HD Truck Market
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: LATAM

Market Outlook
LCV Market
MD&HD Truck Market
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: ASEAN

Market Outlook
LCV Market
MD&HD Truck Market
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Pursue New Market Opportunities
Growth Opportunity 2: Develop ICE Platforms for Alternative Fuels
Growth Opportunity 3: Strengthen Emerging Markets

Appendix & Next Steps

Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
Next Steps
List of Exhibits
Legal Disclaimer