Frost Radar: Economic Development, 2025

The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and India Emerge as Resilience Frontrunners with Growth Leadership

The global economy is poised for a slowdown in 2025, both in terms of economic activity and investment momentum, partly driven by escalating tariff measures under US President Donald Trump. As tariff wars reshape global trade flows, they are accelerating the regionalization and localization of production ecosystems.

In response to rising US tariffs, raw material prices have shown increased volatility across key metal-exporting markets. Pre-emptive stockpiling has triggered temporary spikes in trade volumes, which are likely to decline sharply as US demand weakens due to sustained price increases in the coming quarters. In this context, identifying countries that can absorb external trade shocks while sustaining domestic growth and foreign investment becomes critical.

These shifts in global trade dynamics are unlocking new manufacturing opportunities across emerging markets in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. At the same time, China is gradually losing its position as the dominant ultralow-cost manufacturing hub, due to rising labor costs and geopolitical headwinds.

Frost & Sullivan's Frost Radar™: Economic Development, 2025 evaluates 40 countries through a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic data, policy frameworks, and structural indicators to assess their economic resilience and competitive positioning. Countries are shortlisted based on GDP size, political stability, and trade volumes, with the index extending beyond current performance to gauge future readiness. Key focus areas include domestic manufacturing strength, supply chain resilience, investment attractiveness, and innovation capability.

The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and India-the top three countries-demonstrate growth-driven resilience, supported by strong domestic market fundamentals, manufacturing and logistics competitiveness, and highly attractive incentives for foreign investors. The developed markets of the United States, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, South Korea, and Singapore lead in innovation-driven resilience, backed by innovation-friendly ecosystems, efficient policy implementation, and established investment appeal.

Key Themes:

• Why Resilience Matters
• Global Growth Environment and Challenges
• Top 10 Countries based on Economic Resilience - Ranks by Pillars and Subpillars
• Country Best Practices and Frost Perspective
• Framework and Methodology