US Foreign Military Sales Growth Opportunities, 2025

Evolving Geopolitical Climates May Stifle Industry Growth as Allies Prioritize Strengthening their Domestic Defense Capabilities

This research provides a comprehensive overview of the US foreign military sales industry outlook. Based on major arms segmentation, it categorizes the industry into:

• Missiles
• Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance
• Fixed-Wing Aircraft
• Rotary-Wing Aircraft
• Unmanned Systems
• Others

The study analyzes the Department of Defense's contracts for the calendar year (CY) 2024, including multi-year obligations to:

• Determine key industry drivers and restraints affecting growth through 2029
• Assess spending trends across major defense departments and sub-departments
• Identify leading major arms segments and examine segment-specific technology trends
• Examine the customer landscape and determine the top customer countries, their procurement priorities, and the largest recorded defense contracts
• Analyze the industry competitive landscape and highlight the market share of leading defense contractors

The research also explores evolving regional geopolitical dynamics and bilateral and multilateral defense partnerships, identifying emerging contracting and market expansion opportunities in Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and the Americas.

The study underscores the importance of collaboration among US-based defense firms, academia, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to develop cost-effective, innovative solutions amid increasing competition from allied nations strengthening their domestic defense industrial bases. Synergistic partnerships with defense firms in allied nations can accelerate technology transfers, innovation, and co-development of new defense systems, and bolster supply chain resilience for US defense exporters.

Report Summary: US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market

The US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market continues to evolve amid shifting geopolitical alliances, rising regional conflicts, and accelerating defense modernization efforts across allied nations. In CY2024, the market recorded

strong performance

, with total contracting activities reaching $23.31 billion, reflecting a 14.0% YoY increase from CY2023 levels. Growth was driven primarily by rising demand for missile systems, fixed-wing aircraft, unmanned aerial systems, C4ISR capabilities, and integrated multi-domain solutions.

The market remains highly concentrated, with the top five contractors-Lockheed Martin, Boeing Co., RTX Technologies, Northrop Grumman, and General Atomics-collectively controlling 92.1% of contract value. Missiles and FWA (Fixed-Wing Aircraft) together accounted for more than 75% of total contract value, reinforcing their role as the backbone of US foreign arms transfers. Emerging defense partnerships (INDUS-X, AUKUS, US-Japan co-production programs) and modernization initiatives across Europe and APAC further anchor long-term growth prospects.

Despite strong demand, the market faces constraints related to ITAR bottlenecks, rising protectionism, and the increasing self-reliance of allied defense industries. As Europe pushes its Readiness 2030 initiative and APAC nations expand indigenous manufacturing, US firms must accelerate co-production, RDT&E collaboration, and local technology integration to remain competitive.

Market Size & Forecast (CY2024-CY2029)

• CY2024 Spending: $23.31B
• Base-Year Growth Rate: 14.0%
• Forecast Horizon: CY2025-CY2029
• Lifecycle Stage: Mature
• Degree of Technical Change: 4/10
• Competitors: 56 active companies
• Market Concentration: 95.2% held by top 10 firms

The market trajectory is supported by rising threats in APAC and Europe, expanded strategic alliances, and improvements to foreign procurement frameworks.

Market Overview & Trends: US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market

The US FMS landscape is undergoing a structural shift driven by geopolitical turbulence, technological modernization, and multi-national supply chain realignment. The increasing volatility in regions such as Indo-Pacific, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East has accelerated procurement cycles, creating urgent demand for interoperable, US-origin defense systems.

Geopolitical Dynamics Shaping Demand

Geopolitics remains the principal driver of FMS growth. Defense budgets across APAC and Europe continue to rise as nations strengthen deterrence capabilities against evolving threats.

• Japan (57.3% of APAC FMS contracts) focused heavily on airborne early warning systems and multi-mission aircraft.
• Germany, Romania, Poland led European procurement, with missiles and FWA systems dominating the region's purchases.
• Canada remained the largest partner in the Americas, accounting for 92.5% of FMS in the region.

The US-India ASIA initiative, AUKUS, and long-term defense frameworks with Japan, Australia, and South Korea will shape next-generation joint development, particularly in unmanned systems, AI-enabled defense platforms, hypersonics, and maritime surveillance.

Technology Trends

Top technology procurements emphasize enhanced lethality, AI-driven ISR, electronic warfare, and high-end unmanned systems.

• Missiles: Surface-to-air systems (e.g., PATRIOT) formed the largest share, reaching $6.32B.
• Fixed-Wing Aircraft: Multi-mission maritime aircraft hit $3.41B, followed by fighter aircraft at $3.27B.
• Unmanned Systems: Combat UAVs dominated with $543.2M.
• C4ISR: Radar ($453.2M), command-and-control systems, and EW suites supported modernization efforts.

The rapid integration of AI/ML, cloud-enabled battle management, advanced radar, and EW systems is shifting FMS toward multi-domain operational frameworks.

Contracting Behavior and Funding Patterns

• Procurement contracts: 88.8%
• Services: 11.2%
• Non-competitive and modification contracts: Over 73% combined, reflecting legacy system upgrades and urgent acquisition needs.
• Missiles: 39.5% of all contracts
• FWA: 35.8%
• Others: 8.7% (countermeasures, ground vehicles, training)

The dominance of procurement over service contracts indicates a continued emphasis on capability acquisition rather than sustainment.

Competitive Landscape Trends

• Lockheed Martin leads with $12.55B (53.8% of total), largely driven by missile systems and the F-35 family.
• Boeing follows with $4.5B, focused on FWA and rotary aircraft sustainment.
• RTX Technologies holds 10.2%, mostly from missile and radar systems.

Scope of Analysis: US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market, examining how defense articles, services, and long-term sustainment packages are transferred from the United States to approved partner nations under the FMS framework. The analysis covers the complete lifecycle of FMS cases-from initial requirement identification and case development to program execution, sustainment, modernization, and follow-on support-reflecting how countries build, upgrade, and maintain interoperable defense capabilities with US systems.

The scope includes all major categories of defense exports highlighted in the FMS ecosystem: air systems, missiles and munitions, C4ISR solutions, land systems, maritime platforms, training, logistics, and lifecycle maintenance. It evaluates how these categories contribute to annual obligations, capability building, and strategic alignment between the United States and international partners.

Regionally, the analysis encompasses Indo-Pacific, European, Middle Eastern, African, and Latin American partners, capturing variations in procurement priorities, modernization cycles, and geopolitical pressures driving demand. The scope also assesses how alliances such as NATO, AUKUS, and Indo-Pacific partnerships influence procurement patterns and interoperability requirements.

Stakeholders examined include the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), US military implementing agencies, service branches, prime contractors, and partner-nation acquisition authorities. Policy factors-such as ITAR regulations, congressional notifications, transparency reforms, and security cooperation initiatives-are incorporated to reflect how governance frameworks shape FMS timelines and approval processes.

Financially, the analysis reviews obligation flows, multiyear program funding, sustainment contracts, and modernization spending, recognizing the long-term revenue impact of major platform sales coupled with training, spares, and lifecycle support.

Overall, the scope provides a structured understanding of how the US FMS program strengthens partner capabilities, advances US strategic objectives, and drives multi-domain capability upgrades across global defense ecosystems.

Revenue Forecast: US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market

The Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market in the United States continues to demonstrate strong fiscal momentum driven by modernization needs, geopolitical partnerships, and replenishment cycles stemming from ongoing regional conflicts. Based on the latest spending indicators, the market reported USD 23.31 billion in 2024, establishing a robust baseline for the forecast period.

Looking ahead, the market is expected to expand steadily as allied nations increase procurements of advanced air, land, naval, missile defense, and C4ISR systems. Strong growth is supported by multi-year modernization programs, interoperability mandates with U.S. forces, and elevated demand for precision munitions and air-defense systems. By 2030, annual U.S. FMS-linked spending is projected to reach approximately USD 43-45 billion, reflecting the sustained commitment of international partners to upgrade force structures and enhance readiness postures.

This trajectory corresponds to a healthy CAGR of about 10.5% to 11% between 2024 and 2030. The highest acceleration is expected from 2026 onward, as several Indo-Pacific and European capability expansion programs move from planning to acquisition phases. Procurement volumes for fighter aircraft, missile defense systems, armored vehicles, and tactical communications platforms will significantly amplify future revenue cycles.

Growth is also fueled by strong congressional support, faster approval cycles for Foreign Military Financing (FMF), and expanded participation of mid-sized nations seeking U.S.-made equipment for deterrence, training, and allied mission compatibility. In parallel, existing customers are increasing sustainment and lifecycle-support spending, which contributes meaningfully to year-over-year revenue stability.

Overall, the U.S. FMS ecosystem remains positioned for long-term expansion, driven by modernization imperatives, strategic realignment among partner nations, and growing global dependence on U.S. defense technology.

Segmentation Analysis: US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market

The US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market is structured across multiple capability domains that reflect partner-nation priorities, modernization timelines, and operational readiness requirements. These segments define how countries allocate budgets, shape long-term fleet strategies, and synchronize their defense ecosystems with US and NATO standards.

A. By Category

1. Air Systems (Largest Share)

Air systems remain the most dominant and strategically significant segment within the FMS portfolio. This category spans fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, ISR assets, and training aircraft, representing the highest-value, longest-lifecycle procurements across the market. Fighter jets and multi-role combat aircraft serve as the backbone of high-end airpower modernization, while transport aircraft and utility helicopters address mobility, humanitarian support, and mission logistics. ISR platforms support intelligence, maritime awareness, border surveillance, and counter-terror missions, making them critical for multi-domain operations. Training aircraft further reinforce pilot proficiency and operational readiness, adding to lifecycle value through long-term support, simulation, and avionics upgrades.

2. Missiles & Munitions

The missiles and munitions segment is characterized by recurring, high-volume demand. Partner nations continue to procure precision-guided weapons, tactical ballistic missiles, air and missile defense artillery, and interceptors with integrated sensor suites to strengthen deterrence and address evolving aerial and missile threats. This segment plays a vital role in stockpile replenishment, layered defense strategies, and rapid-response capabilities.

3. Land Systems

The land systems segment comprises armored combat vehicles, tactical trucks, artillery, and soldier systems. Demand is driven by modernization of legacy fleets, national security forces reinforcement, and border-security initiatives. These systems often include multi-year sustainment packages, training support, and modernization kits.

4. C4ISR & Cyber Systems

Modern defense operations depend on command centers, tactical communications, radar and sensor systems, and electronic warfare technologies. These capabilities enable joint-force coordination, situational awareness, and secure information flow. Countries investing in multi-domain integration view C4ISR as essential to operational superiority.

5. Naval Systems

This segment includes multi-mission vessels, shipborne weapons systems, and maritime surveillance solutions, driven largely by Indo-Pacific and Middle Eastern maritime security requirements.

6. Training & Support Services

Training and sustainment constitute a fast-growing segment, with countries procuring pilot training, maintenance training, and logistics & supply chain support to ensure full lifecycle readiness and platform availability.

B. By Region

• Indo-Pacific: The fastest-growing region, driven by maritime disputes, deterrence priorities, and advanced airpower modernization.
• Europe: A high-volume cluster aligned with NATO readiness, air defense, and stockpile replenishment.
• Middle East: Maintains strong historical demand, now recalibrating budgets while continuing investment in air and missile defense.
• Africa & Latin America: Targeted procurement for mobility, surveillance, and internal security missions.

C. By Type of Requirement

FMS demand aligns with five strategic requirement types:

Modernization of core platforms and defense architectures

Sustainment and long-term maintenance of existing fleets

Stockpile replenishment for munitions and spares

Readiness enhancement to ensure mission availability

Interoperability programs that align partner-nation systems with US and NATO standards

Growth Drivers: US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market

• 1. Strategic Defense Partnerships

Partnerships such as INDUS-X, AUKUS, and new US-Japan frameworks strengthen co-production, technology sharing, and supply chain expansion. These collaborations accelerate system development and expand market access.

• 2. Rising Threat Perceptions

Allied nations facing heightened security challenges-especially in APAC-continue to depend on US platforms for air dominance, missile defense, ISR, and maritime security.

• 3. Policy Enhancements in FMS Procedures

The 2025 Executive Order accelerates FMS processing for priority partners, easing acquisition timelines and boosting interoperability. Proposed ITAR reforms further improve export flows.

Growth Restraints: US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market

1. ITAR and Export Control Rigidities

Despite proposed reforms, existing regulations still slow down transfers, create interoperability barriers, and affect procurement schedules.

2. Protectionist Policies

"Buy American" emphasis and renegotiated trade deals may reduce opportunities in foreign markets for US contractors.

3. Rise of Indigenous Defense Industries

Countries like India, Japan, and South Korea are rapidly expanding domestic manufacturing, reducing dependency on US-origin systems.

Competitive Landscape: US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market

The US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) market is characterized by a highly concentrated competitive landscape dominated by major US defense prime contractors with deep program experience, global support networks, and long-standing relationships with partner nations. These firms play a central role not only in platform manufacturing but also in delivering training, sustainment, modernization, and technology-integration services that span the entire lifecycle of FMS cases.

Lockheed Martin, the largest participant, consistently captures the highest share of FMS obligations due to its portfolio of fighter aircraft (including the F-35), helicopters, missile systems, and C4ISR solutions. Its long-term sustainment programs and global maintenance infrastructure further reinforce its leadership. Boeing Defense follows closely as a major supplier of fighter jets, rotorcraft, patrol aircraft, and logistics support packages, especially prominent in Indo-Pacific and Middle Eastern cases.

Raytheon (RTX) holds a strong competitive position across missile defense, radars, integrated air and missile defense systems, and precision munitions-segments with recurring, high-volume demand. Northrop Grumman contributes significantly through advanced ISR platforms, sensors, electronic warfare, and unmanned systems, while General Dynamics remains central to land systems, C4ISR, and naval technologies procured through FMS.

Below the top tier, L3Harris, Textron, Sikorsky, and Bell serve important roles across aviation, rotorcraft, communications, training systems, and sustainment services. Their modular offerings and compatibility with US platforms allow partner nations to expand capability without requiring major new platform investments.

Competition is shaped by several structural factors:

• Lifecycle support obligations, which often exceed initial acquisition value
• Exportability and variant customization driven by ITAR and technology-release rules
• Program performance, including delivery timelines and sustainment reliability
• Alliance-driven requirements, which favor contractors with interoperable, NATO-aligned systems

The market's concentrated structure ensures stability, but it also drives significant competition around modernization packages, digital upgrades, training ecosystems, and long-term service agreements-critical value pools that shape the future of US FMS competitiveness.