Blockbuster Drugs on Patent Cliffs

A patent cliff occurs when a drug loses its patent protection, allowing biosimilars and generics to enter the market. This typically leads to a sharp drop in revenue for the originator company as market share declines. Pharmaceutical companies need to think about their business strategies to remain competitive and sustain profitability as patents expire. As a result, pharmaceutical companies will face increased pressure to innovate, diversify, and show a strong differentiated pipeline.

The next patent cliff, between 2025 and 2030, is set to be the one of the biggest since 2010 from a loss of revenue perspective, with blockbuster drugs including Merck's Keytruda, BMS's Eliquis, and Johnson & Johnson's Darzalex/Faspro all losing market exclusivity. These drugs were among the top 15 selling drugs in 2024 but are forecast to generate a fraction of those sales in 2030.

Several of the top 15 pharma companies, such as BMS, Pfizer, and Novartis, will be significantly impacted by the upcoming patent cliff, as the revenue generated by their top five drugs is set to decrease by up to 62% in 2030. Other companies have strengthened their pipelines to offset patent cliff losses, including Eli Lilly, whose revenue is set to improve by 165% in 2030.

Pharma companies can adopt various strategies to mitigate the impact of patent cliff losses, such as mergers and acquisitions (M&A), increased investment into R&D, life cycle management, and the use of patent thickets, with each approach offering potential benefits. Therefore, companies must carefully choose strategies that not only address short-term revenue loss but also support long-term growth and innovation.

Scope

• This report examines the upcoming patent cliff set to occur between 2025 - 2030.
• The analysis focuses on what companies and drugs are most affected, potential mitigation startegies that these companies can employ, and the different implications and opportunities that big pharma and biotech companies may face during a patent cliff.

Reasons to Buy

• This report talks about the effect of patent cliffs on blockbuster drugs, focusing on the upcoming patent cliff between 2025-2030 and which companies/drugs are affected most. Also, this report shows how ready big pharma are to withstand the effects of this patent cliff, how their pipelines can offset patent cliff losses, and different mitigation startegies that can be employed. From this report, clients can understand the different implications and opportunities that both big pharma and smaller biotechs may face during a patent cliff.