IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Performance-Intensive Computing 2024 Predictions

Description

This IDC study provides the 2024 top 10 predictions for the worldwide performance-intensive computing (PIC) market."IDC is anticipating a variety of disruptive technologies to break through in the performance-intensive computing market in the next five to six years," said Peter Rutten, research vice president, Performance-Intensive Computing, "These breakthroughs will lead to a more heterogenous, more competitive, more affordable, more sustainable, and more capable PIC landscape but will also pose security challenges."

Product Code: US51320123

IDC FutureScape Figure

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Summary of External Drivers
Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers
- Prediction 1: By 2027, the Complexity of Mathematical Computations Will Drive Businesses Toward Heterogeneous Computing for HPC or AI Based on at Least 15 Different Digital, Analog, or Quantum Computing Systems
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 2: By 2028, Businesses Will Be Able to Access at Least Three Quantum Computers That Deliver Quantum Advantage, Solving Small-Scale Yet Complex Problems 500 Times Faster than Classical Supercomputers
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 3: By 2028, Small-Scale (<100,000 Qubits) Quantum-Centric Supercomputers Will Be Available to the U.S. and EU Governments for Primarily Solving Complex Defense- and Climate-Related Problems
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 4: By 2026, 50% of Organizations Will Be Exposed to Data Breaches Because of the Lack of Investments in Post-Quantum Cryptography
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 5: By 2025, Global Sustainability Mandates Will Drive 80% of Institutions and Businesses to Use Renewable Energy Sources for All HPC and AI Deployments
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 6: By 2028, the Need for Sufficient, Affordable, Computational Power for HPC and AI Workloads Will Lead to Breakthroughs in Processing Technologies That Break the Current Monopoly of Accelerator Vendors
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 7: By 2028, Generative AI Will Displace Traditional AI and HPC Use Cases in More than 40% of the World's Largest Supercomputers
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 8: By 2028, the Need for Data Security Will Usher in an Era of Commercial On-Premises Quantum Computing, Causing the Average Size of a Standalone Quantum Computing Deployment Size to Exceed $100 Million
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 9: By 2026, the Need for Real-Time Insights from AI and HPC Will Drive Businesses to Adopt a New Storage and Data Management Paradigm for Ultra-Low-Latency Data Access
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance
- Prediction 10: By 2027, the Demand for Opex-Based Computational Services Will Lead to Quantum Computing, AI, and HPC Services Becoming the Largest Segment of Public Cloud-Based IaaS and PaaS Services
  - Associated Drivers
  - IT Impact
  - Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

On-Premises Deployments
Cloud Deployments
Quantum Computing
IDC Recommendation

External Drivers: Detail

AI Everywhere - Generative AI Takes the Spotlight
The Drive to Automate - Maximizing Efficiency and New Opportunities
Cybersecurity and Risk - Building Resilience Against Multiplying Threats
The Digital Business Imperative - Competitiveness and Outcomes
Everything as a Service Intensifies - Transforming Models to Drive Change
Operationalization of ESG - Measuring and Implementing Sustainability

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