Rare Earths Elements In High-Tech Industries: Market Analysis And Forecasts Amid China's Trade Embargo

Description

Rare earth elements (REE) are a group of 15-17 elements comprising the lanthanides (atomic numbers 57-71) plus yttrium and scandium. Rare earths have a number of specific optical, magnetic and catalytic properties which drive demand across a wide range of applications. However, by volume, permanent magnets and catalysts account for more than half of global demand. The weighting towards permanent magnets is even higher when looked at on a value perspective, with some estimates that the application accounted for over 90% of rare earth demand in 2020. As such, it is the key driver of the market.

The structural shift to the green economy is a significant driver of our bullish outlook on rare earth prices. In particular, an increasing shift to electric vehicles (EV) is expected to drive a significant increase in demand for rare earths, particularly neodymium. Adding 2kg of REE in the form of a rare earth electric vehicle drive results in motor efficiency 2-5% higher than alternatives, saving energy over its lifetime. Being more efficient, the target range for an EV is achieved with a smaller, lighter and cheaper battery, which is critical given the battery represents around 50% of the cost of an EV.

The RE supply chain encompasses everything from mining and separation through to alloying, metal making and eventual manufacturing in catalysts, magnets etc. While mining is relatively straightforward, separation of concentrate to oxide is not, reflecting both the financial and technical hurdles of separation, plus its environmental impacts. As a result, the vast majority of LREE separation is done in China, with the notable exception of Lynas' Malaysian facility and soon-to-be commissioned MP Material's facility. All HREE separation is done in China. This monopoly on separation has led to China's domination of downstream metal, alloy and magnet making, and while countries like the U.S might like to change that, China's status reflects over two decades of investment and an undeniable market leader position in terms of rare earth reserves. In the next section, we cover global reserves, mine supply, key producers and projects, plus some of the key magnet makers.

This report analyzes applications and markets for rare earth materials, with particular emphasis on high-tech industries such as semiconductors, HDDs, LCDs, consumer products, and green technology.

Chapter 1. Introduction

1.1. Rare Earth Element Characteristics
1.2. Rare Earth Element Resources
1.3. Overview of Rare Earth Element Applications

Chapter 2. Rare Earth Industry

2.1. China' Rare Earth Industry
- 2.1.1. China's Production
- 2.1.2. China Rare Earth Production Structure
- 2.1.3. China Rare Earth Consumption Structure
- 2.1.4. China Export of Rare Earths
- 2.1.5. Recent Activities Of China's Rare Earth Industry
  - 2.1.5.1 Consolidation Of China's Rare Earth Industry
  - 2.1.5.2 Export Quotas
2.2. Rest Of World's Rare Earth Industry
- 2.2.1. UNITED STATES
  - 2.2.1.1 Mountain Pass
  - 2.2.1.2 Utah Rare Earth Project
  - 2.2.1.3 Bear Lodge Rare-Earth Project
  - 2.2.1.4 Elk Creek
  - 2.2.1.5 Bokan-Dotson Ridge
  - 2.2.1.6 Diamond Creek
  - 2.2.1.7 Lemhi Pass
- 2.2.2. CANADA
  - 2.2.2.1 MacLeod Lake Project
  - 2.2.2.2 Hoidas Lake
  - 2.2.2.3 Benjamin River Project
  - 2.2.2.4 Douglas River Project
  - 2.2.2.5 Nechalacho Rare Earth Element Project
  - 2.2.2.6 Archie Lake
  - 2.2.2.7 Bulstrode Rare Earth Property
  - 2.2.2.8 Mount Copeland
  - 2.2.2.9 Cross Hills Newfoundland
  - 2.2.2.10 Kipawa
  - 2.2.2.11 Strange Lake
  - 2.2.2.12 Ytterby
  - 2.2.2.13 Grevet REE
  - 2.2.2.14 Turner Falls
- 2.2.3. SOUTH AFRICA
  - 2.2.3.1 Steenkampskraal Mine South Africa
- 2.2.4. AUSTRALIA
  - 2.2.4.1 Nolans Bore
  - 2.2.4.2 Mount Weld
  - 2.2.4.3 Jungle Well/ Laverton
- 2.2.5. GREENLAND
  - 2.2.5.1 Kvanefjeld Project
- 2.2.6. ARGENTINA
  - 2.2.6.1 Cueva del Chacho
  - 2.2.6.2 Susques Property - Jujuy Province
  - 2.2.6.3 John Galt Project
- 2.2.7. INDIA
  - 2.2.7.1 Indian Rare Earth
- 2.2.8. RUSSIA
  - 2.2.8.1 Kutessay II
2.3. Profiles of Mining Corporations

Chapter 3. Rare Earth Market Analysis

3.1. Overview
3.2. Rare Earth Market
- 3.2.1. Domestic Production and Consumption
- 3.2.2. China Production and Consumption
3.3. Global Rare Earth Market Analysis

Chapter 4. Impact on Hi-Tech Applications

4.1. Overview
4.2. Semiconductors
- 4.2.1. Technology Impacted
  - 4.2.1.1 High-k Dielectrics
  - 4.2.1.2 Polishing Powders
- 4.2.2. Rare Earth Material Used
- 4.2.3. Market Forecast of Impacted Semiconductor Devices/Materials
4.3. Hard Disk Drives (HDDs)
- 4.3.1. Technology Impacted
  - 4.3.1.1 Neo Magnets for HDDs
  - 4.3.1.2 High Strength Glass Substrates
  - 4.3.1.3 Polishing Materials
- 4.3.2. Rare Earth Material Used
- 4.3.3. Market Forecast of Impacted HDD Devices/Materials
4.4. Mobile and Mobile Internet Devices
- 4.4.1. Technology Impacted
- 4.4.2. Rare Earth Material Used
- 4.4.3. Market Forecast of Impacted Mobile Devices/Materials
4.5. Solid State Lighting - LED/CFL
- 4.5.1. Technology Impacted
  - 4.5.1.1 Phosphors for Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs)
  - 4.5.1.2 Phosphors for Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL)
- 4.5.2. Rare Earth Material Used
- 4.5.3. Market Forecast of Impacted LED Devices/Materials
4.6. Green Technology
- 4.6.1. Technology Impacted
  - 4.6.1.1 Magnets for Hybrid Vehicle Electric Motors and Brakes
  - 4.6.1.2 Neo Magnets for Wind Turbines
  - 4.6.1.3 Cerium for Catalytic Converters for Automobiles
- 4.6.2. Rare Earth Material Used
- 4.6.3. Market Forecast of Impacted Green Devices/Materials
- 4.6.4. Other Green Technologies

Chapter 5. U.S Strategic Metal Perspective

5.1. The Application of Rare Earth Metals in National Defense
5.2. Rare Earth Resources and Production Potential
5.3. Supply Chain Issues
5.4. Rare Earth Legislation in the 115th Congress

Chapter 6. European Strategic Metal Perspective

6.1. Assessing Criticality
- 6.1.1. Geological And Technical Availability
- 6.1.2. Key Terms And Definitions
- 6.1.3. Geological Availability
- 6.1.4. Technological Development
- 6.1.5. Geopolitical-Economic Availability
6.2. Results And List Of Critical Raw Materials
- 6.2.1. Economic Importance And Supply Risks
- 6.2.2. Future Perspectives On Raw Material Demand - Implications Of Technological Change.
- 6.2.3. Emerging technologies and raw materials

Chapter 7. Rebuilding a U.S. Supply Chain

7.1. Materials Supply Chain Challenges And Opportunities
7.2. Impact of Price Hikes by Application

TABLES

1.1. Selected Rare Earth Element Bearing Products
1.2. Rare Earths Elements And Some Of Their End Uses
2.1. World Mine Production and Reserves
2.2. Global Rare Earth Supply/Demand
2.3. China's Rare Earth Export Volume And Export Amount
3.1. U.S. Rare Earth Statistics
3.2. China FOB Export Prices
3.3. Rare Earth Elements: World Production And Reserves
3.4. Rare Earth Oxide Demand-Supply
3.5. Rare Earth Composition By End Use
4.1. Battery Market Forecast
4.2. Forecast of CMP Slurry
4.3. Market Forecast for Hard Disk Drives
4.4. Neodymium Consumption For Hard Disk Drives
4.5. Market Forecast For Ceria Slurry For Glass Disks
4.6. Shipment Forecast Of Smartphones
4.7. Neodymium Consumption For Smartphones
4.8. Demand of Rare Earths in CFLs/LEDs
4.9. Market forecast of Backlight LEDs by Application
4.10. Shipment Forecast Of Electric Vehicles
4.11. Neodymium Consumption For Electric Vehicles
4-12. Shipment Forecast Of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles
4-13. Ceria Consumption For Catalytic Converters
4-14. Shipment Forecast Of Wind Turbines
4-15. Neodymium Consumption For Wind Turbines
6.1. Rare Earth Applications
6.2. Global Metal Production
7.1. NdFeB Permanent Magnet Supply Chain Steps

FIGURES

1.1. Periodic Table Of Rare Earth Elements
1.2. Abundance Of The Rare Earth Elements
1.3. Rare Earth Production Since
1.4. China's Rare Earth Dominance
2.1. Rare Earth Proportion And Distribution In China
2.2. Production Of Rare Earth Concentrates Since
2.3. Production Of Rare Earth Oxides Since
2.4. China Mining Quota By Company - 2018
2.5. China Rare Earth Oxide Exports By Destination - 2018
2.6. China Rare Earth Metal Exports By Destination - 2018
2.7. China's Rare-Earth Exports
2.8. Rare Earth Prices - 2008-2019
3.1. U.S. Distribution Of Refined Rare Earth Products
3.2. Rare-Earth Price Index
3.3. Comparison Of Rare Earth Consumption Between China And The World
3.4. Global Supply-Demand Forecast
3.5. REE Demand By Volume
3.6. REE Demand By Value
3.7. REE Applications By Volume
3.8. REE Applications By Value
3.9. REE Composition By End Use
3.10. Approximate Percentage Content Of Current And Prospective Ores
4.1. Application Market Share by Volume
4.2. Illustration of MOSFET and Gate Oxide
4.3. STI CMP Using Ceria
4.4. Hafnium Demand for Semiconductors
4.5. HDD Drive and Neo Magnets
4.6. Traditional Design of a 5-mm white LED
4.7. Scattered Photon Extraction white LED
4.8. Supply Chain for Fluorescent Lighting
4.9. EV Rare Earths Applications
4.10. Wind Turbine Motor
4.11. Supply Chain for Permanent Magnets
4.12. Catalytic Converter for Automobiles
5.1. Rare Earth Elements: World Production And Reserves
6.1. Supply Of Strategic Metals To The European Union