CBDCs & Stablecoins: Key Opportunities, Regional Analysis & Market Forecasts 2023-2030

Description

REPORT OVERVIEW

Juniper Research's new “CBDCs & Stablecoins research” provides in-depth analysis and evaluation of how these new payment system risk types are being developed and commercialised within financial markets; delivering critical insights on how they will change business models in payments, key vendors driving the evolution of the market and the future prospects for these payment types of digital assets. It provides an evaluation of the development of CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) and stablecoins across 19 different key countries of interest. The study also contains the Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard; positioning 15 key CBDCs platform vendors.

The research delivers incisive analysis of a range of factors of how both CBDCs and types of stablecoins will be leveraged across the domestic and cross-border payments markets; highlighting the current market status, key pain points in existing processes and the most critical opportunities for vendors to seize. It also features a comprehensive forecast suite; encompassing stablecoin and CBDC usage for payments across a range of segments:

Cross-border B2B Transactions
Cross-border Consumer Transactions
Domestic B2B Transactions
Domestic Consumer Transactions

This research suite comprises:

Market Trends & Strategies (PDF)
Competitor Leaderboard (PDF)
Data & Forecasts (PDF & Excel)
12 Months' Access to harvest Online Data Platform

KEY FEATURES

Market Dynamics: Insights into key trends and market expansion challenges within the development of CBDCs and stablecoins; addressing challenges and financial stability risks posed by the highly technical nature of developing new payment schemes, the potential benefits of new system roll-outs, and analysing use cases. This research also includes a regional analysis on the development level and future prospects for CBDC and stablecoin development in 19 key countries.

Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations: Key opportunities for vendors highlighted across the CBDC and stablecoin issuers' landscape; making for an important reading for key stakeholders with key stablecoins statistics.

Benchmark Industry Forecasts: 8-year forecasts are provided for transaction volume and value of stablecoin and CBDC payments, including splits by domestic versus cross-border, and by consumer versus B2B. The data is also split by our 8 key forecast regions and 60 countries:

North America:
- Canada, US

Latin America:
- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay

West Europe:
- Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

Central & East Europe:
- Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine

Far East & China:
- China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea

Indian Subcontinent:
- Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan

Rest of Asia Pacific:
Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

Africa & Middle East:
- Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates

Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment for 15 CBDC platform vendors, via the Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard, featuring the following financial institutions:
- BITT
- Consensys
- eCurrency
- FIS
- G+D
- Hashcash Consultants
- IDEMIA
- Industria
- Mastercard
- Nahmii
- Nchain
- R3
- Ripple
- Soramitsu
- Stellar

KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

1. Which areas of the market will show the most activity up to 2030?

2. Which payment area will be impacted by stablecoins and CBDCs the most and why?

3. Who are the leading vendors in the CBDC space and what are they doing successfully?

4. What is the value of total transactions using stablecoin and CBDC predicted to be by 2030?

5. What challenges will the market and its stakeholders face over the next 8 years?

COMPANIES REFERENCED

Interviewed: FIS, G+D, IDEMIA.

Case Studied: SWIFT.

Included in Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Bitt, ConsenSys, eCurrency, FIS, G+D, HashCash Consultants, IDEMIA, INDUSTRIA, Mastercard, Nahmii, Nchain, R3, Ripple, Soramitsu, Stellar.

Mentioned: 2C2P, Aave, Alibaba, Altplus, Ant Group, APPG Blockchain, Aselsan, Asian Development Bank, AWS, B3i, Banco do Brazil, Banco Santander, Bank Negara Malaysia, Bank of Ayudhya, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Ghana, Bank of Japan, Bank of Lao PDR, Bank of Thailand, Banque de France, BIS (Bank for International Settlements), BitPay, Bitrust, CAC, Camunda, Capitual, CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), Celo, Cenfri, Central Bank of Eswatini, Central Bank of Nigeria, Central Bank of the Bahamas, Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, Cipher, Circle, ClearSale, Crunchfish, CTC, Dalio Philanthropies, DataCook, Dell, DepositBook, DLA Piper, Domineum Blockchain Solutions, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, e-on, Fabraban, Federal Reserve, Finteum, Fireblocks, Flourish, Fundação CPQD, Glocom, Goldman Sachs, Havelsan, Hitachi, Honda, Hong Kong Monetary Authority , Huawei, ICICI Bank, IDFC First Bank, Indetail, Indra, Information Security Research Center, INTEC, Intellect, Itaú Unibanco , ITU, JCB, JD.com, KBC, KDDI, LVL, McDonald's, Mercado Bitcoin, Microsoft, MoneyGram, National Bank of Kazakhstan, NBU (National Bank of Ukraine), Nesi, Nium, Norges Bank, NS Solutions, NTT Data, NYDIG, Odakyu, Ohken, Oliver Wyman, Optage, Orrick, Panasonic, Paylogic, People's Bank of China, Poste Italiane, Quniqa, Radicle Impact, Rakuten, Rebalance Earth, Reserve Bank of Australia, Riksbank, Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan, RTCore, Samsung, SARB (South African Reserve Bank) , SCSK, Shyft, Siam Commercial Bank, SNB (Swiss National Bank), Société Générale, Soft Space, Sony Financial Holdings, South African Reserve Bank, Standard Bank, Starbucks, State Bank of India, Swedbank, Swiss National Bank, Swiss Re, Sybrin, TecBan, Tencent, Tokuda Bank, Toppan, Tranglo, Travelex Bank, Tubitak Bilgem, UniCredit, Union of Arab Banks, UnionPay, Unisys, Vert, Visa, Wells Fargo, Wirex, Yes Bank.

DATA & INTERACTIVE FORECAST

Key Market Forecast Splits

The forecast suite provides transaction volumes, values and potential savings to end users from the use of stablecoins and CBDCs. Data is split by CBDCs and stablecoins, and by the following segments:

Cross-border B2B Transactions
Cross-border Consumer Transactions
Domestic B2BTransactions
Domestic Consumer Transactions

Geographical splits: 60 countries
Number of tables: 195 tables
Number of datapoints: Over 53,300 datapoints

harvest: Our online data platform, harvest, contains the very latest market data and is updated throughout the year. This is a fully featured platform enabling clients to better understand key data trends and manipulate charts and tables; overlaying different forecasts within the one chart - using the comparison tool. Empower your business with our market intelligence centre, and receive alerts whenever your data is updated.

Interactive Excels (IFxl): Our IFxl tool enables clients to manipulate both forecast data and charts, within an Excel environment, to test their own assumptions using the interactive scenario tool and compare selected markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase a client's ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

FORECAST SUMMARY

The value of payments via CBDCs will reach $213 billion annually by 2030, up from just $100 million in 2023. This radical growth of over 260,000%, reflects the early stage of the sector, currently limited to pilot projects.

Adoption will be driven by governments leveraging CBDCs to boost financial inclusion and to increase their control over how digital payments are made. CBDCs will increase access to digital payments in emerging economies in particular, where mobile penetration is significantly higher than banking penetration.

By 2030, 92% of the total value transacted via CBDCs will be paid domestically. This reflects a change from almost 100% during the current pilot stages, as of 2023. As CBDCs are issued by central banks, they will be closely targeted at domestic payment challenges initially, with cross-border payments coming later, as systems become established and links are made between CBDCs used by individual countries.

While cross-border payments are currently have high costs and slow transaction speeds, this area is not the focus of CBDC development. As CBDC adoption will be very country specific, it will be incumbent on cross-border payment networks to link schemes together, allowing the wider payments industry to benefit from CBDCs.

A lack of commercial product development around CBDCs is a key limiting factor for the current market, with few well-defined platforms for central banks to leverage. Prospective CBDC platform providers should develop a full end-to-end solution, including wholesale capabilities, wallet provision and merchant acceptance, in order to enable the potential of CBDCs to be realised.

1. Market Trends & Strategies

1. Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations

1.1. Key Takeaways
1.2. Strategic Recommendations

2. Market Landscape

2.1. Introduction
- 2.1.1. Definitions & Scope
2.2. Digital Coins
- Figure 2.1: Centralised vs Decentralised Systems
- 2.2.1. Cryptocurrencies
  - Figure 2.2: Process of Making Cryptocurrency Payments
  - Figure 2.3: Bitcoin to USD Price, Feb 22 to Feb 23 ($)
  - i. Mining
- 2.2.2. Stablecoins
- 2.2.3. CBDCs
  - i. Retail CBDCs
  - ii. Wholesale CBDC
  - iii. CBDCs and Payments Sovereignty
  - iv. Anti-money laundering
    - Figure 2.4: CBDC Tracker
2.3. Current Stablecoins & Central Bank Digital Currencies Landscape
- 2.3.1. CBDCs: Current Status
- 2.3.2. Stablecoins: Current Status
- 2.3.3. Blockchain
  - Figure 2.5: Hashing
- 2.3.4. Smart Contracts
- 2.3.5. Tokens
- 2.3.6. Digital Wallets, Stablecoins & CBDCs
  - Figure 2.6: Number of People Using Digital Wallets, Year End (m), 2022-2027
2.4. Stablecoins & CBDCs: Impact Analysis and Future Outlook
- 2.4.1. Stablecoins and CBDCs Impact on Commercial Banks
- 2.4.2. Stablecoins and CBDCs' Impact on Merchants
- 2.4.3. Stablecoins and CBDDCs Impact on Cross-border Payments
- 2.4.4. Stablecoins and CBDCs Impact on Consumers
  - Figure 2.7: Smartphones in Service vs Banked Population, Global, 2023-2027 (m)
- 2.4.5. CBDCs: Future Outlook
  - Figure 2.8: Total Number of Transactions Using CBDC (m), Split by Segment, Global, 2023-2030
- 2.4.6. Stablecoins: Future Outlook
  - Figure 2.9: Total Number of Transactions Using Stablecoins (m), Split by Segment, Global, 2023-2030

3. Regional Analysis

3.1. Introduction
3.2. Country-level Regulatory Frameworks
- 3.2.1. North America
  - i. US
  - ii. Canada
- 3.2.2. Latin America
  - i. Brazil
  - ii. Bahamas
  - iii. Eastern Caribbean
- 3.2.3. West Europe
  - i. UK
    - Figure 3.1: UK CDBC Concept
    - Figure 3.2: UK CBDC Opportunities & Challenges
  - ii. France
    - Figure 3.3: Next Steps for French CBDCs
  - iii. Sweden
    - Figure 3.4: e-krona
  - iv. Switzerland
- 3.2.4. Central & East Europe
  - i. Turkey
  - ii. Ukraine
- 3.2.5. Far East & China
  - i. China
    - Figure 3.5: China's CBDC App
  - ii. Japan
    - Figure 3.6: Proposed Japanese CBDC System Structure
- 3.2.6. Indian Subcontinent
  - i. India
    - Figure 3.7: Indian CBDC Model
- 3.2.7. Rest of Asia Pacific
  - i. Singapore
  - ii. Thailand
- 3.2.8. Africa & Middle East
  - i. Nigeria
    - Figure 3.8: eNaira Example
  - ii. South Africa
    - Figure 3.9: SARB CBDC Exploration Waves & Timeline
iii. United Arab Emirates

2. Competitor Leaderboard

1. Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard - CBDCs

1.1. Why Read This Report
- Table 1.1: Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard CBDC Vendors Included Product Portfolio
- Figure 1.2: Juniper Research CBDCs Competitor Leaderboard
- Table 1.3: Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard Vendors & Positioning
- Table 1.4: Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard for CBDC Vendors Heatmap
1.2. CBDC Vendor Profiles
- 1.2.1. Bitt
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.2. ConsenSys
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.3. eCurrency
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
    - Figure 1.5: Use Cases for eCurrency DSC3
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.4. FIS
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.5. Giesecke+Devrient
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.6. HashCash Consultants
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.7. IDEMIA
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.8. INDUSTRIA
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
    - Figure 1.6: INDUSTRIA's Approach to the Market
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.9. Mastercard
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.10. Nahmii
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.11. nChain
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.12. R3
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
    - Figure 1.7: R3 CBDC Partners
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.13. Ripple
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
    - Figure 1.8: Key Features of Ripple's CBDC Solutions
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.14. Soramitsu
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
    - Figure 1.9: Bakong System Graphic
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
- 1.2.15. Stellar
  - i. Corporate
  - ii. Geographic Spread
  - iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
1.3. Juniper Research Leaderboard Assessment Methodology
- 1.3.1. Limitations & Interpretations
  - Table 1.10: Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard Scoring Criteria

3. Data & Forecasting

1. CBDCs and Stablecoins: Introduction & Methodology

1.1. Introduction
- 1.1.1. Definitions & Scope
1.2. Methodology & Assumptions
- Figure 1.1: Consumer Domestic CBDCs/Stablecoins Methodology
- Figure 1.2: Consumer Cross-border CBDCs/Stablecoins Methodology
- Figure 1.3: B2B Domestic CBDCs/Stablecoins Methodology
- Figure 1.4: B2B Cross-border CBDCs/Stablecoins Methodology

2. Forecast Summary

2.1. Total Volume of CBDC and Stablecoin Transactions
- Figure & Table 2.1: Total Number of Transactions Using Stablecoins and CBDCs (m), Split By 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 2.2: Total Number of Transactions Using Stablecoins and CBDCs (m), Split by Segment, 2022-2030
2.2. Total Value of Stablecoin & CBDC Transactions
- Figure & Table 2.3: Total Value of Stablecoin and CBDC Transactions ($bn), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 2.4: Total Value of Stablecoin and CBDC Transactions ($bn), Split by Segment, 2022-2030
2.3. Potential Savings from Stablecoin and CBDC Use
- Figure & Table 2.5: Total Savings Achieved Using Stablecoins and CBDCs ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 2.6: Total Savings Achieved Using Stablecoins and CBDCs ($m), Split by Segment, 2022-2030

3. Stablecoins: Market Forecast

3.1. Total Number of Stablecoin Payment Transactions
- Figure & Table 3.1: Total Number of Transactions Using Stablecoins (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 3.2: Total Number of Transactions Using Stablecoins (m), Split by Segment, 2022-2030
3.2. Total Value of Stablecoin Payment Transactions
- Figure & Table 3.3: Total Value of Stablecoin Transactions ($bn), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 3.4: Total Value of Stablecoin Transactions ($bn), Split by Segment, 2022-2030
3.3. Total Savings Possible via Use of Stablecoins
- Figure & Table 3.5: Total Number of Transactions Using Stablecoins (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 3.6: Total Number of Transactions Using Stablecoins (m), Split by Segment, 2022-2030

4. CBDCs: Market Forecast

4.1. Total Number of CBDC Transactions
- Figure & Table 4.1: Total Number of Transactions Using CBDC (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 4.2: Total Number of Transactions Using CBDC (m), Split by Segment, 2022-2030
4.2. Total Value of CBDC Transactions
- Figure & Table 4.3: Total Value of CBDC Transactions ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 4.4: Total Value of CBDC Transactions ($m), Split by Segments, 2022-2030
4.3. Total Potential Savings from CBDC Use
- Figure & Table 4.5: Total Savings Achieved Using CBDCs ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2030
- Table 4.6: Total Savings Achieved Using CBDCs ($m), Split by Segment, 2022-2030