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PUBLISHER: Market Forecast | PRODUCT CODE: 1832739

PUBLISHER: Market Forecast | PRODUCT CODE: 1832739

Small Calibre Military Ammunition - Market and Technology Forecast to 2033

PUBLISHED: September 30, 2025

PAGES: 150 Pages

DELIVERY TIME: 1-2 business days

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Description

Market forecast by Region and Ammunition Calibre. Country Analysis, Market and Technology Overview including Critical Raw Materials, Opportunity Analysis, and Leading Company Profiles

The small calibre military ammunition market is entering a multi-year upcycle. Elevated consumption linked to the war in Ukraine and the resetting of NATO readiness targets have shifted demand from peacetime "sustain" levels to durable, programme-based buys. Europe currently leads the expansion, with the United States remaining a strong, steady segment-together underpinning a robust pipeline for qualified suppliers and investors.

Supply remains the gating factor. Bottlenecks in primers, energetics (e.g., nitrocellulose), brass, and skilled labour are constraining output, while new case-draw, primer, bullet-assembly and LAP lines typically require one to three years to reach stable, qualified production. For businesses prepared to act, this imbalance creates attractive pricing, backlog visibility, and an opportunity to lock in long-term customer relationships.

Winning strategies centre on scalable resilience: multi-year framework agreements and predictable training-load volumes to keep lines warm; flexible tooling to swing efficiently across 5.56/7.62/9/.50 and 6.8x51 families; vertical integration or long-term offtakes in primers, powders and brass; and productivity levers such as automation, yield management and OEE. Interoperability and NATO/STANAG conformance remain essential differentiators for exportability and speed to qualification.

Market structure will stay fragmented as nations pursue ammunition autonomy, opening room for partnerships, JVs, and targeted M&A. At the same time, trade frictions and tariff regimes raise input costs and complicate cross-border sourcing-favouring operators that diversify suppliers, regionalise footprints, dual-qualify materials and secure long-dated energetics and energy contracts. For business leaders, the message is clear: the cycle is strong, capacity is scarce, and early movers that build resilient, compliant, cost-competitive platforms will set the pace.

This study examines procurement pathways for small-calibre military ammunition and assesses how the war in Ukraine is reshaping the market. The scale and value of the opportunity favour both new entrants and well-established manufacturers seeking to expand share. Even if the conflict ends in the near term, enduring security requirements and stockpile replenishment will sustain robust demand for years to come.

The study provides a model of the market size, in-depth insights procurement opportunities, mapping out the scope, scale, and timelines of opportunities worldwide. It also offers a solid understanding of the current situation in the small calibre military ammunition business landscape and what should be expected for the future.

Covered in this study:

Overview: A strong insight of the Small Military Ammunition market in the military market during 2025-2033, including highlights of the demand drivers, trends, and challenges. It also provides a snapshot of the spending with respect to regions as well as segments and sheds light on the emergence of new technologies.
Market Dynamics: Snapshots into the technological developments in the small calibre military ammunition market. It also analyses the market landscape in key regions, how that is shaped by the war in Ukraine and the political and regulatory efforts undertaken to address a series of issues.
Segment Analysis: Insights into the various calibres, end-use and regions from a segmental perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each segment.
Regional Analysis: Insights into the systems market from a regional perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each region.
Competitive landscape Analysis: Analysis of the competitive landscape of this industry. It provides an overview of key companies, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a SWOT analysis.

Segmentation

The market is segmented by Region and Calibre of the ammunition.

Region

North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Middle East & Africa
Latin America

Calibres

5.45mm
5.56mm
5.7mm
6.5mm
6.8mm
7.62mm
8.6mm (.338)
9mm
0.45APC (11.43mm)
12.7mm (.50 cal.)

Reasons to buy:

This report provides a global view of efforts to scale small-calibre military ammunition production, both to meet Ukraine's wartime consumption and to replenish national stockpiles.
It identifies and rigorously analyses the forces reshaping the market, including policy decisions, cross-industry collaborations, supply-chain redesign, and the availability of critical raw materials.
It maps regional production profiles and assistance flows to Ukraine, clarifying how these dynamics are redirecting procurement worldwide.
Finally, it highlights the principal opportunities and risks so decision-makers can act with confidence to grow their businesses.

Companies Listed:

BAE Systems
Day & Zimmermann
DynCorp International
Federal
FN Browning
FN Herstal
General Dynamics - Ordnance & Tactical Systems
General Dynamics - Ordnance & Tactical Systems Canada
GGG (Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla)
JPEO A&A - Joint Program Executive Office for Armaments & Ammunition
Kalashnikov Group
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace AS
Nammo
Nibe Defence & Aerospace

Nitrotol OU
Olin/Winchester
Patria Oy
PGZ Mesko
Remington
Rheinmetall Expal
Rostec
SIA Ammunity
Sig Sauer
Speer
Swedish Astor Group AB
Techcrim
The Kinetic Group
Tula Ammo

Product Code: MF252512

1. Executive Summary

1.1. Trends and Insights
1.2. Main Findings
- 1.2.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
- 1.2.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
1.3. Key Conclusions

2. Introduction

2.1. Scope
2.2. Definitions
2.3. Methodology
2.4. Who will benefit from this study?

3. Technologies and Developments

3.1. Technology overview
3.2. Types of small calibre ammunition
3.3. Ammunition without lead - green ammunition
3.4. A new calibre for the US military - 6.8mm
3.5. Calibre modularity in rifles
3.6. Polymer and metallic lightweight ammunition
3.7. Technologies to manage inventories
3.8. Anti-drone munition
3.9. Technological developments in Russia and China

4. Critical Raw Materials

5. Market Overview

5.1. Introduction
5.2. Small calibre ammunition market volume distribution over forecast period by Region
5.3. Competitive landscape
5.4. Europe
- 5.4.1. European Union
- 5.4.2. EU Instruments: SAFE, ASAP and EDIRPA
- 5.4.3. Baltic region
- 5.4.4. Nordic region
- 5.4.5. France
- 5.4.6. Poland
5.5. North America
- 5.5.1. United States
- 5.5.2. Canada
5.6. Overview of the Chinese and Russian markets

6. Market Dynamics and Forecast Factors

6.1. Market segmentation
6.2. Drivers
6.3. Trends
6.4. Opportunities
6.5. Challenges
6.6. Forecast Factors and Notes

7. Country Analysis

7.1. Overview
7.2. North America
- 7.2.1. United States

8. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region

8.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Region overview
8.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Region by Calibre overview
- 8.2.1. North America market by Calibre overview
- 8.2.2. Europe market by Calibre overview
- 8.2.3. Asia Pacific market by Calibre overview
- 8.2.4. Middle-East & Africa market by Calibre overview
- 8.2.5. Latin America market by Calibre overview

9. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre

9.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Calibre overview
9.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Calibre by Region overview
- 9.2.1. 5.45 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.2. 5.56 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.3. 5.7 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.4. 6.5 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.5. 6.8 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.6. 7.62 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.7. 8.6 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.8. 9 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.9. 11.43 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.10. 12.7 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.11. 12 Gauge market by Region overview

10. Opportunity Analysis

10.1. Introduction
10.2. Compound Growth Rates
- 10.2.1. By Region
- 10.2.2. By Calibre

11. Companies

11.1. BAE Systems Plc
- 11.1.1. Introduction
- 11.1.2. Products and services
- 11.1.3. Recent Contracts
- 11.1.4. SWOT Analysis
11.2. Beretta Holding
- 11.2.1. Introduction
- 11.2.2. Products and services
- 11.2.3. Recent contracts and developments
- 11.2.4. SWOT Analysis
11.3. Czechoslovak Group
- 11.3.1. Introduction
- 11.3.2. Products and services
- 11.3.3. Recent contracts and developments
- 11.3.4. SWOT Analysis
11.4. EDGE Group PJSC
- 11.4.1. Introduction
- 11.4.2. SWOT Analysis
11.5. FN Herstal
- 11.5.1. Introduction
- 11.5.2. Products and services
- 11.5.3. Recent contracts and developments
- 11.5.4. SWOT Analysis
11.6. GGG - Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla
- 11.6.1. Introduction
11.7. MKE (Makine ve Kimya Endustrisi) Inc.
- 11.7.1. Introduction
- 11.7.2. Products and services
- 11.7.3. Recent developments and contracts
- 11.7.4. SWOT Analysis
11.8. Nammo AS
- 11.8.1. Introduction
- 11.8.2. Products and services
- 11.8.3. Recent developments
- 11.8.4. Recent Contracts
- 11.8.5. SWOT Analysis
11.9. Olin Winchester
- 11.9.1. Introduction
- 11.9.2. Products and services
- 11.9.3. Recent Contracts
- 11.9.4. SWOT Analysis
11.10. PGZ Group S.A.- Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa
- 11.10.1. Introduction
- 11.10.2. Products and services
- 11.10.3. Recent developments and contracts
- 11.10.4. Recent Contracts
- 11.10.5. SWOT Analysis
11.11. Poongsan
- 11.11.1. Introduction
- 11.11.2. Products and services
- 11.11.3. SWOT Analysis
11.12. SIA Ammunity
- 11.12.1. Introduction
- 11.12.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition
11.13. Sig Sauer
- 11.13.1. Introduction
- 11.13.2. Products and services
- 11.13.3. Recent developments
- 11.13.4. Recent Contracts
- 11.13.5. SWOT Analysis
11.14. Thales
- 11.14.1. Introduction
- 11.14.2. Products and Services
- 11.14.3. Recent Developments
- 11.14.4. SWOT Analysis

12. Results and Conclusions

13. About Market Forecast

13.1. General
13.2. Contact us
13.3. Disclaimer
13.4. License

Appendix A: Companies Mentioned

Appendix B: Abbreviations

List of figures

Figure 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
Figure 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
Figure 3: Barrett Firearms M22 sniper rifle
Figure 4: Polymer-case 0.50" ammunition
Figure 5: 5.45mm pellet anti-drone munition
Figure 6: Critical Raw Materials producing countries
Figure 7: Critical Raw Materials dependence [%] and volume [mt] by producing countries
Figure 8: Market volumes over the forecast period per region
Figure 9: European defence planning path
Figure 10: The Sig Sauer M7 rifle
Figure 11: US Army soldiers firing an M240B machine gun
Figure 12: Market segmentation Small Calibre market
Figure 13: Sig Sauer's 6.8mm calibre rounds
Figure 14: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Figure 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region %
Figure 16: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 17: North America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 18: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 19: Europe - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 20: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 21: Asia Pacific - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 22: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 23: Middle-East & Africa - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 24: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 25: Latin America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 26: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Figure 27: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre %
Figure 28: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 29: 5.45 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 30: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 31: 5.56 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 32: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 33: 5.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 34: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 35: 6.5 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 36: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 37: 6.8 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 38: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 39: 7.62 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 40: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 41: 8.6 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 42: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 43: 9 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 44: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 45: 11.43 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 46: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 47: 12.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 48: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 49: 12 Gauge - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 50: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Region
Figure 51: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Region in US$ millions
Figure 52: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Calibre
Figure 53: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Calibre in US$ millions

List of tables

Table 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region in US$ millions
Table 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre in US$ millions
Table 3: Critical Raw Materials used in Small Calibre Military Ammunition
Table 4: Critical Raw Materials - Annual production from low-risk countries (LRC) versus required production for Small Calibre Military Ammunition
Table 5: Market activity
Table 6: Country groupings in market sizing
Table 7: Modelling per region.
Table 8: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Market Share by Country
Table 9: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 10: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 11: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 12: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 13: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 14: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 16: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 17: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 18: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 19: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 20: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 21: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 22: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 23: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 24: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 25: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 26: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]