National Security and Competitive Risks in the Robotics Industry: A Strategic Briefing on the GUARD Act

Overview:

The United States faces a critical juncture in the burgeoning humanoid and quadruped robotics market, characterized by an aggressive expansion of Chinese-manufactured systems into domestic infrastructure. Evidence from legislative testimony indicates that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is employing a strategic "playbook" (previously successful in the drone industry) to achieve market dominance through state subsidies, intellectual property theft, and market dumping.

The primary legislative response under consideration is the GUARD Act, which proposes adding humanoid and quadruped robots from adversarial-linked companies to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) "Covered List."

This action is deemed necessary to mitigate significant national security threats, including data exfiltration, clandestine surveillance of critical infrastructure, and the potential for physical disruption via remote access.

Currently, Chinese firms account for approximately 90% of global humanoid shipments, while American researchers and public safety agencies are increasingly adopting these subsidized systems due to their artificially low costs.

Experts warn that failure to act while the "installed base" of these robots is still relatively small will result in a costly and complex dependency like the current challenges faced in removing untrusted telecommunications and drone equipment.

About the Report

A central thesis of this Mind Commerce report is that the physical AI market in 2026 is at a pivotal, yet early, transition window.

“Unlike the commercial drone industry, where federal intervention arrived only after a single Chinese firm captured over 90% of the market, the humanoid installed base is still relatively small (low tens of thousands of global units).”

For venture capital and private equity, this timing provides regulatory certainty. Institutional capital that previously hesitated to fund U.S. hardware developers due to state-subsidized Chinese price-dumping can now deploy capital into domestic platforms with confidence that margins won't be artificially eroded.

The report provides asset managers with a roadmap for portfolio reallocation, dividing the ecosystem into distinct risk/reward profiles. Beyond pure financial returns, the report acts as a risk-mitigation guide for corporate end-users, system integrators, and enterprise supply chain executives.

The strategic value of this briefing lies in its ability to reframe regulatory risk into competitive opportunity. It enables private equity, institutional asset managers, and enterprise decision-makers to position themselves ahead of a multi-billion-dollar market realignment toward supply chain sovereignty and trusted physical AI deployment.

Organizations in Report:

U.S. Government, Legislative & Regulatory Bodies

• Federal Communications Commission (FCC): Highlighted as the regulatory authority responsible for adding untrusted foreign robotics onto the "Covered List".
• U.S. Congress: The legislative body evaluating the GUARD Act and national robotics policy.
• U.S. Department of Defense (DoD): Mentioned regarding security warnings, national security assessments, and defense procurement.
• U.S. Department of Commerce: Cited in relation to Section 232 investigations into national security impacts of machinery and robotics imports.
• U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS): Identified as a key agency for establishing national robotics procurement signals.
• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE): Mentioned as a federal agency involved in establishing procurement demand for secure ground autonomy.
• U.S. House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party ("Select Committee"): Congressional committee investigating foreign supply chain and security risks.
• National Robotics Commission: Proposed joint federal-industry council tasked with assessing supply chain risks and telemetry standards.

3. International & Political / Defense Entities

• NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization): Allied international alliance specifically exempted from GUARD Act restrictions.
• People's Republic of China (PRC) / PRC Government: The foreign government cited for state-subsidy practices, intelligence laws, and strategic industrial initiatives.
• Chinese Communist Party (CCP): Political body linked to foreign robotics developers targeted by the legislation.
• People's Liberation Army (PLA): Armed forces of China, referenced regarding military-civil fusion and armed quadruped tests.

4. American Robotics Developers & Compute Infrastructure

• Agility Robotics: U.S. developer of the Digit bipedal humanoid robot.
• Boston Dynamics: U.S. robotics pioneer (owned by Hyundai Motor Group) producing the Spot quadruped and Atlas humanoid.
• Figure AI: U.S. embodied-AI startup focused on general-purpose humanoid platforms.
• Sanctuary AI: U.S. embodied-AI company developing bipedal hardware and foundation models.
• NVIDIA Corporation: U.S. semiconductor designer producing Jetson Orin and Thor edge-AI compute modules.
• Ambarella: U.S. edge-AI processor designer for autonomous systems.

5. Allied International Hardware & Component Suppliers

Japan

• Harmonic Drive Systems: Primary supplier controlling ~80% of the worldwide market for precision strain wave gears.
• Nabtesco Corporation: Global supplier of precision cycloidal drive speed reducers.
• FANUC Corporation: Industrial automation and industrial control system manufacturer.
• Yaskawa Electric: Industrial motion control and industrial robotics manufacturer.
• Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Industrial automation and robotics manufacturer.

South Korea

• Rainbow Robotics: Robotics manufacturer of the RB-Y1 bipedal humanoid and smart actuators.
• Samsung Electronics: Holds a major strategic stake in Rainbow Robotics.
• Hyundai Motor Group: South Korean automotive and industrial conglomerate that owns Boston Dynamics.
• Robotis: Component vendor specializing in smart actuators and modular hardware.
• Doosan Robotics: Developer of collaborative robotic systems and subassemblies.

Europe

• ABB (Switzerland): European industrial automation and robotic systems provider.
• Bosch Rexroth (Germany): Provider of linear actuators and industrial motion control solutions.
• SCHUNK (Germany): Precision gripping system and end-effector specialist.
• Festo (Germany): Automation technology and specialized drive unit vendor.
• SEW-Eurodrive (Germany): Manufacturer of drive solutions and motion control systems.
• Schaeffler (Germany): Precision bearing, linear actuator, and motion component vendor.

6. Targeted Chinese Robotics & Upstream Component Manufacturers

• Unitree Robotics (Hangzhou Unitree Technology Co., Ltd.): Primary targeted firm producing Go2/B2 quadrupeds and H1/G1/R1 humanoids.
• AgiBot (Zhiyuan Robotics): Chinese general-purpose humanoid manufacturer.
• UBTECH Robotics: Hong Kong/China-listed developer of the Walker S series humanoids.
• Fourier Intelligence: Chinese developer of the GR-1 general-purpose humanoid.
• XPENG Robotics: Developer of the IRON humanoid robot.
• Leju Robotics: Developer of the Kuavo humanoid robot.
• Galaxy Robotics: Chinese emerging humanoid developer.
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems: Major Chinese producer of precision strain wave gears.
• Hesai Group: Chinese manufacturer of high-definition LiDAR and optical sensors.
• RoboSense: Chinese optical sensing and LiDAR hardware supplier.

7. Other Technology, Telecom & Uncrewed Aerial Firms

• Huawei: Chinese telecommunications entity cited under previous FCC restrictions.
• ZTE: Chinese telecommunications company cited under legislative precedents.
• DJI: Chinese drone manufacturer referenced regarding shell subsidiaries and white-label restrictions.

8. Industry Associations, Exchanges & Financial Entities

• Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI): Industry trade group cited regarding the "Drone Dominance Precedent".
• Roundhill (Roundhill HUMN): Asset management group offering thematic robotics ETFs.
• Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX): Public exchange where UBTECH Robotics is listed (9880.HK).
• Shanghai STAR Market: Financial exchange where Unitree Robotics was planning its initial public offering.