Market Data - EV Geographic Forecast - North America: US and Canadian Light Duty Plug-In EV Forecasts by Province, State, and Major Metropolitan Area

Global sales of light duty (LD) plug-in EVs (PEVs) reached nearly 2.5 million in 2019 with a sales growth of 30% over 2018. However, 2020 may tell a different story for the light duty vehicle (LDV) market around the globe. In North America, LDV sales decreased due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Guidehouse Insights anticipates LDV sales in North America to be down 20% in 2020 from 2019 levels, and even in the best-case scenario, the pandemic will have a lasting economic impact. The LDV market will likely take 5 years to fully recover.

Despite economic impacts to the LDV market, PEVs are proving to be a resilient vehicle market segment in some regions of the world, but less so in North America. In the near term, PEVs in North America are expected to see only a 5% decline from 2019, but long-term sales market share has slowed. The wealthier consumer base that currently purchases PEVs is likely to experience fewer impacts from the economic recession and still consider purchasing a vehicle, whereas other consumers may have to put their purchasing plans on hold. Given that long-term PEV sales expectations assume higher adoption from a broader group of consumers, the economic shift will likely have an impact on PEV sales through 2030.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on a national, state/province, and sub state/province level. Guidehouse Insights employs the Guidehouse Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool (VAST) to create three forecast scenarios. The forecasts include passenger car (PC) and light truck (LT) breakouts, as well as powertrain breakout by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and battery EVs (BEVs). Additionally, the report includes charging port forecasts by residential and nonresidential use cases on a national and state/province level. All forecasts have a conservative, base, and aggressive scenario.

KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED:

• Which areas in North America are most likely to have the strongest penetration of plug-in EVs (PEVs)?

• What is the projected size of the North American PEV market through 2030?

• What are the impacts of state and regional market regulations and interventions on the market?

• What are the emerging implications of increased PEV diffusion?

• How will markets respond to increased PEV capability?

• How will additional zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) policies affect PEV sales and population?

• How will vehicle adoption affect the amount of charging infrastructure?

WHO NEEDS THIS REPORT:

• Automobile OEM marketing managers
• Vehicle aftermarket and service management
• Tier One supplier marketing managers
• EV charging equipment marketing managers
• Electric utility management
• State, province, and city urban planners
• EV advocacy groups
• Investor community

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1. Introduction

• 1.2. Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

• 2.1. Introduction
  • 2.1.1. Scenarios and Scope
    • 2.1.1.1. Battery Pack and Fuel Prices
    • 2.1.1.2. Consumer VMT
    • 2.1.1.3. Model Availability
    • 2.1.1.4. Policy Environment

3. Methodology

• 3.1. Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool Model Overview
  • 3.1.1. Long-Run Market Share-Competition between Powertrains
  • 3.1.2. Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption
  • 3.1.3. The Vehicle Sales Forecast and Model Calibration
  • 3.1.4. Geographic Specificity

• 3.2. The VAST Charger Siting Module Overview

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1. Introduction

• 4.2. US
  • 4.2.1. State Forecasts
  • 4.2.2. Sub-State Forecasts
  • 4.2.3. EV Charging Ports

• 4.3. Canada
  • 4.3.1. Province Forecasts
  • 4.3.2. EV Charging Ports

• 4.4. Conclusions and Recommendations

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

LIST OF CHARTS AND FIGURES

• LD PEV Population by Major Market, Base Scenario, North America, 2020-2030
• LD PEV Population by Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Population by Class, Base Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Sales by Top 10 States, Base Scenario, US: 2030
• LD PEV Sales by Top 10 Metropolitan Areas, Base Scenario, US: 2030
• EV Charging Ports by Charger Type, Base Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Population by Scenario, Canada: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Population by Class, Base Scenario, Canada: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Sales by Top 5 Provinces, Base Scenario, Canada: 2030
• EV Charging Ports by Charger Type, Base Scenario, Canada: 2020-2030
• VAST Systems Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Approach
• Example of LDV Charging Port Allocation

LIST OF TABLES

• LDV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2020-2030
• LDV Population by State or Province, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Canada: 2020-2030
• LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Sales by Class and Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Sales by Class and Scenario, Canada: 2020-2030
• Top 50 Largest LD PEV Sales by Metropolitan Area, Conservative Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• Top 50 Largest LD PEV Sales by Metropolitan Area, Base Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• Top 50 Largest LD PEV Sales by Metropolitan Area, Aggressive Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, Canada: 2020-2030
• LD BEV Population by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD BEV Population by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD BEV Population by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Population by Class and Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• LD PEV Population by Class and Scenario, Canada: 2020-2030
• Top 50 Largest LD PEV Populations by Metropolitan Area, Conservative Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• Top 50 Largest LD PEV Populations by Metropolitan Area, Base Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• Top 50 Largest LD PEV Populations by Metropolitan Area, Aggressive Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• EV Charging Port Counts by Use Case and Scenario, US: 2020-2030
• EV Charging Port Counts by Use Case and Scenario, Canada: 2020-2030
• Residential EV Charging Port Counts by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• Residential EV Charging Port Counts by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• Residential EV Charging Port Counts by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• Nonresidential EV Charging Port Counts by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• Nonresidential EV Charging Port Counts by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• Nonresidential EV Charging Port Counts by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
• EV Geographic Forecast-North America Forecast Drivers and Scenarios
• Geographic Forecasting Area Labels and Definitions
• BEV Lithium Ion Battery Pack Pricing, Global Average, All Scenarios: 2020 and 2030