New Paradigms for CHC 2023: The Future Resumed

Table of Contents

1. So What's the Big Idea?

• The global CHC market
• 10 Steps to Heaven
  • 1. CBD, a long-distance race!
  • 2. Mental Wellness: Problems highlighted by the pandemic
  • 3. Sexual Health & Fertility
  • 4. Women's Health, Ageing
  • 5. Sustainability
  • 6. Natural & Organic Products
  • 7. Food Intolerance
  • 8. E-commerce
  • 9. AI
  • 10. Emerging Markets
• The Big Ideas addressed in this report
• The 2024 Strategic Narrative

2. Covid & Its Aftermath

• How Covid-19 accelerated the shift to Self-Care
• Historical impact of recession on Consumer Healthcare
• The shifting landscape of consumer behaviour
• Growth categories during the pandemic
• Rethinking supply chains: how the pandemic exposed vulnerabilities

3. Classic Categories

• Analgesics: Few major opportunities so marketers filling in gaps
• Cough, Cold & Allergy: Heavily dependent on seasonal illness trends
• Gastrointestinals: New consumer benefits drive expansion
• Vitamins, Minerals & Supplements: Trusted science key to growth
• Dermatologicals: Resistant to growth
• Lifestyle CHC: A full spectrum of herbals to Rx-to-OTC switches

4. How to Innovate

• Why does the ratio of high-quality (3 and 4 star) innovations remain persistently low?
• Future microbiome and probiotics innovation will be driven by investment in clinical research
• Improved diagnostics will support VMS innovation and Rx-to-OTC switch
• Demand for diabetes prevention and management is giving fuel to supplement and diagnostic innovation
• Quality science and consumer trust key to successful weight loss innovation
• Demand for products promoting mental health and sleep growing post-pandemic
• Ageing demographic underpins supplement and plant-based protein innovation
• Focus on analgesics: New formats, switch and ingredient combinations drive innovation
• Focus on CCA: Natural-based formulations and allergy switches power NPD activity
• Focus on dermatologicals: Sustainable packaging and cutting-edge apps fuel NPD
• Focus on GIs / probiotics: Hangover cures, prebiotics and switch are key
• What does the future hold? Evolving NPD trends, personalisation, emerging niches

5. Rx-to-OTC Switch

• Rx-to-OTC switch in the healthcare ecosystem
• Why Switch?
• The uptake in telehealth & telemedicine
• Switch in Europe
• Can Switch be successful only in the USA?
• Voltaren Arthritis Pain: USA Switch journey
• US FDA's Additional Condition for Nonprescription Use (ACNU)
• Innovation hot spots in Switch
• Switch case studies
• On the horizon?

6. Demographic Timebomb

• A rapidly Growing Middle Class in expanding urban areas
• Generation cohorts: different attitudes & behaviours to health
• What is Middle Class?
• The three most important demographic groups
• What about men?
• Is there a Gender Gap?

7. Women's Healthcare: Listening to the Female Voice

• Women vs men
• Women's leading CHC role
• Menstrual pain and PMS
• Are the OTC contraception floodgates about to open?
• Menopause - are there new growth opportunities?
• Overactive bladder - OTC growth category or destined for failure?
• New thinking on endometriosis
• Women's brands and companies

8. Health Through Digestion

• The importance of the gut microbiome
• Mental health is a growth segment for probiotics
• Custom probiotics have the potential to disrupt
• The "biotics" family
• The "Gut-Muscle Axis"; a new dimension for probiotics?
• Food allergies: the focus of much research
• Food intolerance
• Unhealthy lifestyles are driving demand for digestive remedies and other GIs
• Hangover cures form a new segment
• ORTs repositioning as lifestyle products

9. Mental Wellness

• Mental health problems soared during Covid-19, while economic worries are a continuing contributor to stress
• Spending on mental health & wellbeing remains a priority for consumers
• WHO declares a sleep pandemic
• Sleep quality is a top health priority for consumers
• ZzzQuil: Highly successful sleep aid, with 3 key development stages
• Is the sales boost in sedatives & sleep aids sustainable?
• New indications and ingredients in mental wellness
• CBD for sleep & anxiety?

10. Cannabis

• A note on defining the market
• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific

11. Sexual Health & Fertility

• Huge potential for daily OCs worldwide
• Education is central to expanding the reach of EHC
• Is a male contraceptive pill viable and is there demand?
• Condoms: Little NPD potential, so other ways to swell sales needed
• Menstrual pain / PMS market expands via launch activity
• Intimate care shows plenty of scope for expansion
• Menopause: UK sees the first over-the-counter HRT, while a new
• Rx drug may revolutionise treatment
• How big can the OTC ED market become?
• Do topicals represent a viable ED alternative?
• Can premature ejaculation treatments find a wider audience?
• Prenatal vitamins prove fertile ground for NPD

12. Obesity & Related Conditions

• Obesity is a huge determinant of health - and the data is frightening
• Obesity crisis represents huge opportunity for CHC
• Where are the opportunities?
• Evidence-backed brands can be lost among the plethora of weight loss supplements & meal replacements
• Supporting consumers on their weight loss journey
• Apps & wearables for weight loss
• Semaglutide: Is the excitement justified?
• Obesity's link to other health conditions brings possibilities

13. Digital Revolution

• AI and chatbots
• Accessibility of data
• Medtech & wearables
• Apps
• Telehealth
• Digital communication

14. Sustainability

• Frameworks become regulations
• The Triple Bottom Line: People, Planet, Profit
• Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) Reporting
• Collaborate to make progress
• Innovation, packaging & recycling - drafting a roadmap to a circular economy
• Engineering, beauty & performance with environmental credentials
• Communicating sustainability
• Being in the Wellbeing Business

15. Emerging Markets

• Emerging Markets: attractive markets with some degree of uncertainty
• Emerging Markets forecasts
• Emerging Markets: What's holding back growth?
• CHC performance in selected Emerging Markets
• Nicholas Hall's 20 ways to succeed in the Emerging Markets

16. China

• China plans an economic reset
• Should I stay, or should I go?
• Lockdown easing brings a more positive outlook for CHC
• Despite a weakened economy, China's CHC market rebounded well
• Population imbalance: the issues & opportunities of an ageing population
• Gen X goes green and young women lead online shopping trends
• "Sang culture" and "Me mentality" prevalent as consumers focus on health & wellness
• Covid-19 changes consumer preferences from overseas supplements to TCM
• China's fragmented pharma market starting to consolidate
• The NMPA seeks to incentivise innovation
• Technological advances: AI and R&D
• How to get ahead online
• Competition for e-commerce giants amid regulatory clampdown
• CHC product trends & opportunities
• Summary: What does all this mean for CHC players in China?

17. Distribution

• Overview
• Retail Category Management
• Pharmacy Point-of-Care
• In-store clinic model
• Leading pharmacy chains
• Private label
• General Sales List and self-selection
• Mass market
• E-commerce
• Thorne: Digitally-native personalised supplement brand with diagnostics presence
• Subscription model
• Shopper insights
• Patient / consumer journey

18. Competition

• Cluster Analysis 1: MNCs + True Pharma
• Cluster Analysis 2: MNCs + FMCG
• Cluster Analysis 3: Regional Players + True Pharma
• Cluster Analysis 4: Regional Players + FMCG

19. M&A

• Why M&A?
• Type of M&A models
• High acquisition multiples
• Ten Golden Rules of M&A

20. Managing Brands for Long-Term Growth

• Building trust in a brand beyond its science
• Managing price increases
• Tactics that could drive brand share in a static market
• How to compete in an industry dominated by generics
• How to leverage the New Paradigm
• WOW! Brands case studies: Innovation & scale
• Olly: Dynamic US brand, with supplements portfolio targeting female Millennials
• Lumify: Rx-to-OTC Switch eye care brand with heavy focus on cosmetic red eye benefits, backed by professional recommendation