Food Market Outlook 2023: Inflation, Sustainability, Convenience, & Other Food Trends

Table of Content

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

FOOD RETAIL SALES FORECAST

FOOD TRENDS

Private Label Surges Due to Inflation

CEA-Indoor Farming

Plant-Based Alternatives

Non-Plant-Based Alternatives

Mindful Indulgence

Convenient At-Home Restaurant Quality

Figure 1-1 Food Market Trends

SCOPE

METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 2: COVID-19 EFFECTS ON CONSUMERS

HIGHLIGHTS

CONCERNS ABOUT COVID-19 EXPOSURE REMAIN

Table 2-1 Coronavirus Health Concerns: "I am concerned about the…", 2020-2022 (% of respondents)

IMPACT ON FOOD

Concerns About High Prices and Shortages

Table 2-2 Concerns about Rising Prices by Product Category, 2021, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Table 2-3 Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

Concerns About Shortages

Table 2-4 Concerns about Shortages by Selected Product Category, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

Table 2-5 Consumer Concerns about Food Shortages, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

Consumers Still Stockpiling

Table 2-6 "If a food item is on sale, I buy multiple units to stock up." Agree Completely, 2012-2022 (percent of US adults)

Table 2-7 Separate freezer owned or purchased in last 12 months, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)

EATING PATTERNS: WHAT & WHEN

Figure 2-1. Pandemic-Era Eating Habits: What & When, 2022 (% of respondents)

Eating Comfort Foods

Figure 2-2. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Comfort Foods by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

Eating Fresh Produce

Figure 2-3. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Fresh Produce by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

Eating Processed Foods

Figure 2-4. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Processed Foods by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

Eating Snacks & Treats

Figure 2-5. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Snacks & Treats by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

Pandemic-Era Eating Frequency

Figure 2-6. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Frequency by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

HOME COOKING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH

Table 2-8 Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2012-2022 (percent of US adults)

Table 2-9 Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2012-2022 (percent of US households, and percent of households that make food from scratch)

• BOOSTED ONLINE GROCERY SHOPPING ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH

Activity Spiked in 2020 during the Early Part of the Pandemic

Table 2-10 Coronavirus Food Purchase Habits: "Because of the coronavirus, I am…", 2020-2021 (percent of consumers)

• Many Have Continued Ordering More Groceries Online in 2021 and

Figure 2-7. Grocery Ordering Habits Continue to Be Affected by the Pandemic, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

Use of Meal Kit Delivery Services

Figure 2-8. Changes in Ordering Meal Kits during the Pandemic, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

• EFFECTS ON WORK HAVE CONTINUED IN 2021 AND

Figure 2-9. Coronavirus Changes to Work Patterns, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

• And Continue in

Table 2-11 "Are You Set Up to Do Your Usual Paid Work From Home - Whether Ordinarily, Part-Time, or When Necessary?" by Gender, Age, Income, & Children at Home, 2021-2023 (% of respondents who work full- or part-time)

Changes in Work From Home Frequency

Table 2-12. Changes in Work From Home Frequency, 2020 & 2022 (% of employed respondents who are set up to work from home & said yes)

CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW

FOOD RETAIL SALES FORECAST

Table 3-1 US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2017, 2022-2027P (million dollars and percent)

Table 3-2 US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 (million dollars and percent)

Table 3-3 US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 (percent change)

DISTRIBUTION TRENDS

E-Commerce and Grocery Delivery

Table 3-4 Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2012-2022 (percent of US adults)

Faster Home Delivery

Autonomous Delivery

Drone Delivery

In-Home Delivery

On-Demand Delivery

Instacart Helps Retailers Drive Sales, Save Customers Money

SNACKING

Frequency of Snacking and Reasons for Snacking

Figure 3-1 Frequency of and Reasons for Snacking, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Snacking Highest in the Afternoon

Figure 3-2 When Snacks and Meals Are Eaten, 2022 (percent of consumers)

FRUIT MOST PREFERRED IN MORNING, SAVORY/SALTY AND SWEET TREATS AT NIGHT

Figure 3-3 Preferred Snacks in Morning and Evening/Late Night, 2022 (percent of consumers that snacks in morning or evening)

HOME MEAL KITS

HOME MEAL DELIVERY

CHAPTER 4: FOOD TRENDS

CEA-INDOOR FARMING

PLANT-BASED ALTERNATIVES

• One-Fourth of Consumers Claim to Primarily Follow a Flexitarian Diet in

Table 4-1. Prevalence of Plant-Forward Eating Habits/Diet Control, 2019 - 2022 (percent of consumers)

Plant-Based Meat and Poultry Alternatives

Blends

Plant-Based, Dairy-Free Alternatives

Ice Cream

Yogurt

Cheese

NON-PLANT-BASED ALTERNATIVES

Cultivated Meat Approaches Commercialization in US

Other Alternatives

Animal-Free Dairy

EMBRACE ESG

Packaging

Figure 4-1 Priority of Selected Food Packaging Characteristics, 2023 (percent of consumers)

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HEALTHIER-FOR-YOU

Figure 4-2 Priority of Selected Food Characteristics, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Table 4-2 "I Buy Food Labeled As…", 2017-2022 (percent of US adults)

Natural

"Natural" Labels Most Impactful When Grocery Shopping

Figure 4-3 Influential Labels When Purchasing Food, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Figure 4-4 Reasons for Seeking "Natural" Food Labels, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Reduced or Zero Sugar

Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake

Figure 4-5 Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake

Figure 4-6 Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Sugar Continues to Be Preferred Over Low/No-Calorie Sweeteners

Figure 4-7 Preferences for Sweeteners, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake

Figure 4-6 Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Sugar Continues to Be Preferred Over Low/No-Calorie Sweeteners

Figure 4-7 Preferences for Sweeteners, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Table 4-3. Preferences for Sweetener Types, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Incorporating Vegetables

Table 4-4 Consumption Rates for Fresh Vegetables, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)

Diet-Friendly

Figure 4-8 Adherence to a Diet/Eating Pattern in the Past Year, 2018-2022 (percent of consumers)

Keto

Table 4-5 "Are you familiar with (heard of it and know what is involved in following it) any of the following diet and eating philosophies?" 2021 - 2022 (percent of consumers)

Gluten-Free

MINDFUL INDULGENCE

EXCITE THE SENSES

KID-FOCUSED

CONVENIENT AT-HOME RESTAURANT QUALITY

PARTNERSHIPS ADVANTAGEOUS

PRIVATE LABEL SURGES DUE TO INFLATION

Table 4-6 Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021-2022 (percent change)

Table 4-7 Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat selected product)

CHAPTER 5: CEREAL

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to Over $13 Billion in

Table 5-1 U. S. Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 5-1 U. S. Cereal Category Retail Dollar Shares 2019, 2022 (percent)

Table 5-2 U. S. Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 6: CHOCOLATE CANDY

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increases to Over $35 Billion in

Table 6-1 U. S. Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

Figure 6-1 U. S. Chocolate Candy Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2022, 2027 (percent)

Table 6-2 U. S. Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 7: COOKIES

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Approach $18 Billion in

Table 7-1 U. S. Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 8: FRESH BREAD

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to Over $22 Billion in

Table 8-1 U. S. Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

Figure 8-1 U. S. Fresh Bread Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2022 (percent)

Table 8-2 U. S. Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 9: FRESH PACKAGED SALADS

SALES OUTLOOK

• Fresh Packaged Salad Sales Increasing to Over $9 Billion in

Table 9-1 US Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

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Packaged Salad Consumption Still Much Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Levels

Table 9-2 Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

Packaged Salad Eaters Don't Consume That Often

Table 9-3 Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat packaged fresh salad)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CEA-Indoor Farming

Convenient Restaurant Quality

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 10: FROZEN DINNERS/ENTREES

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to $17.4 Billion in

Table 10-1 U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 10-1 U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Segment Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2027 (percent)

Table 10-2 U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 11: FROZEN PIZZA

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Exceed $9 Billion in

Table 11-1 US Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Only About Half of US Households Eat Frozen Pizza

Table 11-2 Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)

Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often

Table 11-3 Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat frozen pizza)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Restaurant Quality at Home

Mindful Indulgence

Ultra-Indulgent

Excite the Senses

CHAPTER 12: ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Approach $19 Billion in

Table 12-1 US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million units, and percent change)

Category and Segment Sales

Figure 12-1 US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Value Shares by Segment, 2019, 2027 (percent)

Frozen Novelties Continue to Outperform Ice Cream

Table 12-2 US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2016-2027 (million dollars and percent)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Consumption Data at Odds With Sales Data

Table 12-3 Consumption Rates for Ice Cream, Novelties, and Packaged Frozen Yogurt, 2016-2022 (percent of US households)

Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream Overwhelmingly Preferred

Table 12-4 Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2016-2022 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)

Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much

Table 12-5 Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016-2022 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Excite the Senses

Reimagine Classics and Nostalgia

Mindful Indulgence

Dairy Alternatives

Animal-Free Dairy

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 13: MEAL & SNACK BARS

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market at $10 Billion in

Table 13-1 US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 13-1 US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2016, 2019, 2022 (percent)

Table 13-2 US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Some Consumption Data at Odds With Sales Data

Table 13-3 Consumption Rates for Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Expands

Table 13-4 Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat breakfast/cereal/granola bars)

Key Brand Differences

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Table 13-5 Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2012-2022 (percent of households that eat bars)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Mindful Indulgence

Healthier-For-You

Excite the Senses

Kid-Focused

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 14: MEAT AND POULTRY

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Exceed $145 Billion in

Table 14-1 US Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Category and Segment Sales

Meat Dominates Category Sales

Figure 14-1 US Meat and Poultry Category/Segment Retail Dollar Shares, 2021, 2022 (percent)

Table 14-2 US Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2016-2027 (million dollars and percent change)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

• Consumption Down in

Table 14-3 Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

Fresh Overwhelming Preferred Over Frozen

Table 14-4 Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households that eats meat or poultry)

Trouble Holding Bacon and Sausage Pandemic Gains

Table 14-5 Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Convenient Restaurant Quality

Excite the Senses

Plant-based Alternatives

Blends

Cultivated Meat Approaches Commercialization in US

Table 14-3 Activities of Selected Cultivated Meat Developers

Other Alternatives

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 15: NATURAL AND SPECIALTY CHEESE

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to over $23 Billion in

Table 15-1 U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 15-1 U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2022 (percent)

Table 15-2 U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 16: SALTY SNACKS

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Exceed $48 Billion in

Table 16-1 U.S. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

Potato Chips Losing Share in The Future

Figure 16-1 U.S. Salty Snack Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2016, 2027 (percent)

Growth Driven by Non-Chip Salty Snacks

Table 16-2 U.S. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars and percent change)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Other Snacks Gain but Potato Chips Still Most Preferred

Table 16-3 Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

Chip Eaters Don't Consume Much

Table 16-4 Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat potato chips)

Table 16-5 Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat corn/tortilla/other chips & cheese snacks)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Excite the Senses

Mindful Indulgence

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 17: SOUP

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to Nearly $12 Billion in

Table 17-1 U. S. Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz. equivalents, and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 18: YOGURT

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Over $12 Billion in

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Table 18-1 U.S. Yogurt Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 18-1 U.S. Yogurt Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2016, 2022, 2027 (percent)

Table 18-2 U.S. Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Yogurt Consumption Relatively Steady After Pandemic Boost

Table 18-3 Consumption Rates for Yogurt, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households)

Steady Increase in Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Consumption

Table 18-4 Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)

Yogurt with Fruit Most Popular But Declining

Table 18-5 Kinds of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)

Greatest Growth from Those Eating the Least

Table 18-6 Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Healthier-For-You

Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives

Increase Kids' Consumption

Excite the Senses

Continue Leveraging Snacking Trend

Embrace ESG