Food Market Outlook 2025: Inflation, Tariffs, the Rise of Weight Loss Medications & More

Description

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2025 provides insight into consumer trends as well as their behaviors and motivations. This report focuses on growth opportunities with analysis from decades of food and beverage perspective. Provided are both predictions and recommendations that are designed to guide retailers, wholesalers, service providers as well as food processors, packaging firms and investors in making decisions for their business about the food market. The report discusses inflation, tariffs, the rise of weight loss medications and more.

Key topic areas include:

Increasing GLP-1 drug use is boosting demand for better-for-you food options, including lean proteins, nutrient-dense foods, and gut-healthy options.

The MAHA - Make America Healthy Again - movement's impacts will be seen particularly in calls to reduce artificial colors and certain preservative classes.

Consumers seeking value in an era of still high food prices are turning to private label options, even outside basic categories.

Moving beyond "protein in everything", opportunities exist in the better-for-you segment by adding fiber and reducing sugar.

Product Code: LA20022082

Table of Content

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

FOOD TRENDS

Figure 1-1. Food Market Trends

SCOPE
METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 2: RECENT HISTORICAL TRENDS

RISING PRICES: FROM SUPPLY CHAIN CRUNCHES TO INFLATION
Many Consumers Are Concerned about Inflation and Rising Food Prices

Table 2-1. Month-to-month changes in consumer price index (CPI) for all food items, 2022 - 2025 (percent change)
Table 2-2. Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021 - 2024 (percent of consumers)

Tariffs to Further Inflate US Food and Beverage Prices
Rising Prices Impact Consumer Behavior
Cutting Back on Household Expenses

Table 2-3. Consumer Spending on "Extras", 2023 - 2024 (percent of consumers)

Private Labels Are More Desirable as Prices Rise

Table 2-4. Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 (percent change)
Table 2-5. Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat selected product)

The Vast Majority of Consumers Have Noticed the Rising Cost of Food, and Many Are Changing Their Purchasing Decisions

Figure 2-1. Noticing the Rising Cost of Food and Beverages over the Past Year, 2024
Figure 2-2. Impact of Rising Costs on Food/Beverage Purchasing, 2024

Consumers Find Price More Important for Food Purchase Decisions in 2024

Figure 2-3. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions, 2024
Figure 2-4. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions by Household Income Bracket, 2024

STRESS LEVELS AND IMPACT ON FOOD/BEVERAGE CONSUMPTION

Figure 2-5. Stress Levels in the Last Six Months and Impact on Healthfulness of Food/Beverage Consumption, 2024
Figure 2-6. Sources of Stress for Consumers Who Were Very or Somewhat Stressed in the Last Six Months, 2024
Figure 2-7. Top Sources of Stress in the Last Six Months by Generation, 2024
Figure 2-8. Happiness, Stress, and Health Status by Household Income Bracket, 2024
Figure 2-9. Impact of Food Consumption on Mental or Emotional Well-Being, 2024

SNACKING TRENDS
Frequency of Snacking

Table 2-6. Frequency of Snacking Habits on a Typical Weekday, 2024, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Figure 2-10. Frequency of Snacking and Approaches Toward Snack/Portion Size, 2024

Snacking Demographics

Table 2-7. Always or Usually Eating Breakfast or Snacking More Than Once a Day by Demographic, 2024 (percent of consumers)

Reasons for Snacking

Table 2-8. Reasons for Snacking, 2024 & 2025 (percent of consumers)
Figure 2-11. Top Motivations for Snacking, 2024
Figure 2-12. Evening and Late Nigh Snack Choices, 2024

"Snackification" of Meals

Figure 2-13. Replacing Traditional Meals by Snacking or Eating Smaller Meals, 2024

WEIGHT LOSS

Figure 2-14. Motivations for Following Specific Eating Patterns or Diets in the Past Year, 2024

Weight-loss Drugs

Figure 2-15. Use of and Feelings Regarding GLP-1 or Other Weight Loss Drugs, 2025

HOME COOKING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH

Table 2-9. Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2014 - 2024 (% of US adults)
Table 2-10. Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2014 - 2024 (% of households that make food from scratch)

CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW

FOOD RETAIL SALES FORECAST

Table 3-1. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2024 - 2029P (million dollars and percent change)
Table 3-2. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019 - 2024 (billion dollars and percent change)
Table 3-3. US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019 - 2024 (percent annual change)
Table 3-4. Annual Price Changes by Top Food Categories, 2020 - 2024 (percent change)

DISTRIBUTION TRENDS
E-Commerce

Table 3-5. Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US adults)

CHAPTER 4: CEREAL

SALES OUTLOOK
Market to Remain Slightly Over $13 Billion in 2029

Table 4-1. US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Table 4-2. US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Sensory Delight
Snacking
Comfort and nostalgia
Healthier-for-you
Mindful indulgence
Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 5: CHOCOLATE CANDY

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Increases to Over $35 Billion in 2029

Table 5-1. US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

Table 5-2. US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Sensory Delight
Influencer Inspired
Comfort & Nostalgia
Mindful Indulgence
Responsible NPD
Plant-Based Chocolate
CBD Infused

CHAPTER 6: COOKIES

SALES OUTLOOK
Market to Nearly $19 Billion in 2029

Table 6-1. US Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Sensory Delight
Cultural Cuisine
Mindful Indulgence
Comfort & Nostalgia
Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 7: FRESH BREAD

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Over $22 Billion in 2029

Table 7-1. US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

Table 7-2. US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Sensory Delight
Healthier-for-you
Specially Crafted
Comfort & Nostalgia
Responsible NPD
Cultural Cuisine

CHAPTER 8: FRESH PACKAGED SALADS

SALES OUTLOOK
Fresh Packaged Salad Sales Increasing to Over $8 Billion in 2029

Table 8-1. US Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Packaged Salad Consumption Declines

Table 8-2. Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)

Most Packaged Salad Eaters Don't Consume That Often

Table 8-3. Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat packaged fresh salad)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
CEA-Indoor Farming
Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
Convenience
Flavor-forward
Responsible NPD
Cultural Cuisine

CHAPTER 9: FROZEN DINNERS/ENTREES

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Increasing to Nearly $16 Billion in 2029

Table 9-1. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Table 9-2. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
Plant-Based
Cultural Cuisine
Convenient Meal Prep
Healthier-for-you
Sensory Delight
Comfort & Nostalgia

CHAPTER 10: FROZEN PIZZA

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Approaches $9 Billion in 2029

Table 10-1. US Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Frozen Pizza Eaten by Only Half of US Households

Table 10-2. Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households)

Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often

Table 10-3. Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat frozen pizza)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
Ultra-Indulgent
Sensory Delight
Comfort & Nostalgia
Healthier-for-you
Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 11: ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Increasing to Over $19 Billion in 2029

Table 11-1. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million units, and percent change)

Category and Segment Sales
Frozen Novelties Will Continue to Outperform Ice Cream

Table 11-2. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream Overwhelmingly Preferred

Table 11-3. Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2017 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)

Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much

Table 11-4. Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Sensory Delight
Comfort & Nostalgia
Mindful Indulgence
Cultural Cuisine
Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 12: MEAL & SNACK BARS

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Approaching $10 Billion in 2029

Table 12-1. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Table 12-2. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, Segment 2019 - 2029 (million dollars)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Expands

Table 12-3. Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2018 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat breakfast/cereal/granola bars)

Key Brand Differences

Table 12-4. Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households that eat bars)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Indulgence
Healthier-For-You
Sensory Delight
Cultural Cuisine
Kid-Focused
Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 13: MEAT AND POULTRY

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Approaching $158 Billion in 2029

Table 13-1. US Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Category and Segment Sales
Meat Continues to Dominate Category Sales

Table 13-2. US Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent change)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Poultry Preferred Over Meat but Gap Shrinking

Table 13-3. Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2014 --2024 (percent of households)

Consumers Overwhelming Prefer Fresh Over Frozen

Table 13-4. Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households that eats meat or poultry)

Sausages Outperforming Other Processed Meats

Table 13-5. Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Cultural Cuisine
Convenient Meal Prep
Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
Sensory Delight
Plant-based Alternatives
Blends
Cultivated Meat Facing Challenges
Other Alternatives
Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 14: NATURAL AND SPECIALTY CHEESE

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Approaching $26 Billion in 2029

Table 14-1. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Table 14-2. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Sensory Delight
Mindful Indulgence
Alternatives
Restaurant/Cheese Shop Quality
Snacking

CHAPTER 15: SALTY SNACKS

SALES OUTLOOK
Market to Exceed $47 Billion in 2029

Table 15-1. US. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales
Growth Driven by Non-Chip Salty Snacks

Table 15-2. US. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent change)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Potato Chips Still Most Preferred But Trending Down

Table 15-3. Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)

Chip Eaters Don't Consume Much

Table 15-4. Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat potato chips)
Table 15-5. Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 -2024 (percent of US households that eat corn/tortilla/other chips & cheese snacks)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Sensory Delight
Cultural Cuisine
Mindful Indulgence
Comfort & Nostalgia
Responsible NPD
Kid-focused

CHAPTER 16: SOUP

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Increasing to Over $10 Billion in 2029

Table 16-1. US Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz. equivalents, and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Healthier-for-You
Cultural Cuisine
Comfort & Nostalgia
Sensory Delight
Influencer Inspired

CHAPTER 17: YOGURT

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Approaching $15 Billion in 2029

Table 17-1. US Yogurt Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)

Category Sales

Table 17-2. US Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS
After Pandemic Boost, Yogurt Consumption Relatively Steady

Table 17-3. Consumption Rates for Yogurt, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households)

Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Still Preferred

Table 17-4. Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)

Plain and Flavored Yogurt Gain at Expense of Fruit Varieties

Table 17-5. Kinds of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)

Greatest Growth in 2024 from Those Eating the Most

Table 17-6. Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Healthier-For-You
Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives
Increase Kids' Consumption
Sensory Delight
Influencer Inspired
Snacking