<2026.1H> Global xEV Market and Battery Supply & Demand Outlook(~2035) DB

The North American EV market recorded a decline in the fourth quarter, as previously anticipated.

In the fourth quarter of last year, EV (BEV + PHEV) registrations in the United States reached approximately 252 thousand units, marking a 43.2% decline compared to about 440 thousand units registered in the same period of the previous year.

The main cause was the early termination of EV tax credit policies under the second Trump administration. Through legislation named the "One Big Beautiful Bill," the United States discontinued EV tax credit benefits starting in 4Q '25, which had originally been scheduled to continue until the early 2030s. As a result, the global EV market, which had been growing by more than 24% YoY in quarterly figures during '25, recorded only 8.4% growth in the fourth quarter.

Due to policy changes in major automotive markets such as the United States, the EV market has become increasingly difficult to predict. In this report, SNE Research analyzes and quantifies the evolving dynamics of the EV market, which continues to grow despite ongoing uncertainties. The report presents data-driven projections reflecting various scenarios, including the possibility of renewed growth in the U.S. market toward the end of the Trump administration.

We hope that this report, reflecting key developments in the EV market, will be helpful to industry stakeholders.