<2026. 2H> Global EV Market and Battery Supply-Demand Outlook (~2035) - DB

01 Report Overview

Global EV and Battery Market: Slower Growth and a Shifting Supply-Demand Structure

The global EV market is diverging more sharply by region in 2026, as growth slows in the US and China while Europe, Asia and emerging markets expand. Passenger EV sales are forecast to grow 7% year on year in 2026, regain momentum from 2027, and reach 37.04 million units in 2030 and 56.46 million units in 2035. The change in market composition is especially pronounced: a downward revision to the long-term US outlook, upward revisions for Europe and Asia, and wider adoption of PHEV and EREV.

Battery demand is forecast at 1,403GWh in 2026 and 3,809GWh in 2035. Over the medium to long term, xEV battery demand grows more slowly as PHEV/EREV and LFP gain share, while ESS expands to 1,600GWh in 2030 and 2,000GWh in 2035, emerging as a second pillar of demand for the battery industry.

On the supply side, capacity has been recalculated from the sales results and half-year reports of major Chinese battery makers. Effective supply capacity in 2035 rises from 4,495GWh in the 1H forecast to 6,485GWh, and the point at which global supply turns short is pushed back from 2031 to 2035. The 2035 supply-demand balance also improves from -31% to -1%.

That said, headroom in the global total does not amount to a stable supply chain. In 2030 China is expected to hold 91% surplus capacity, while non-China regions face a 30% shortfall and Europe a 40% shortfall. North America is also projected to turn short by 2035. Supply-demand judgments should therefore rest on regional and chemistry-level supply structures rather than on the global total.

This report analyzes EV sales and the shifts in battery demand, price, supply and supply-demand balance by region, vehicle type, company and chemistry, with forecasts through 2035. We hope it serves as a useful basis for business and investment decisions in a fast-moving market.