DRAM/NAND Flash 2026 Capex: AI-Driven Revisions, Capacity Limited

AI drives surging memory demand, prompting capex revisions. However, limited cleanroom space and a shift to advanced tech over raw capacity will constrain future bit output growth. Equipment vendors are optimistic, yet memory tech hurdles rise.

Key Highlights:

• Strong AI demand is leading to upward revisions in memory capital expenditure, despite initial conservative outlooks.
• DRAM investments prioritize advanced processes and HBM capacity expansion, though cleanroom space limitations constrain bit output growth.
• NAND Flash capex shifts towards hybrid bonding and higher layer counts, with varying strategies among suppliers.
• NAND Flash demand, fueled by AI storage and cloud provider shifts, represents a structural shortage; however, manufacturers remain cautious about immediate expansion.
• Memory equipment suppliers are optimistic about AI-driven demand, highlighting the increasing complexity and high technical hurdles in advanced memory.
• Overall industry investment is transitioning from traditional bit capacity expansion to process upgrades and high-value products, resulting in limited future bit growth.